Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[adam2]

Gas storage is now down to just over 20% full, which is of little concern at this time of year, though remember that 20% full represents a smaller volume of gas than in the past, due to the reduction in storage capacity.

Total gas consumption has been higher than in an average year, despite very average weather.
The gas burnt for electricity production has increased somewhat, due to the reduction in coal burning capacity.
Significant amounts of coal burning capacity have closed in the last few weeks, so the consequently increased gas burn has made relatively little difference to THIS winters consumption.
NEXT winter is likely to show significantly increased gas consumption for electricity production, with installed capacity and hours of use both increased.
In the recent winter we saw more than usual use of OCGT plant, which uses gas at an alarming rate. I expect a lot more OCGT operation next winter.

And of course indigenous natural gas production continues to decline, and we have less storage capacity than in the past.

What could possibly go wrong ?

[woodburner]

Nothing can go wrong, Amber Rudd says so. (I wonder how she feels after spouting the political drivel).

[adam2]

Time to start thinking about NEXT winter !
Storage is now filling, though rather slowly, if filling rates do not increase then it wont be full before next Autumn.

Gas demand is significantly above the average or expected demand, presumably due to the increased gas burnt for electricity production.
Several large coal burning power stations have closed recently and the shortfall has been largely met by increased gas burning.

Next winter, a record gas burn for electricity production seems likely. Fairly regular use of OCGT plant seems unavoidable.

[biffvernon]

At least they are better at load following than coal so overall CO2 emissions should be significantly down now that coal, post the March 31 shutdowns, seems to produce less than 5GW.

[vtsnowedin]

At least they are better at load following than coal so overall CO2 emissions should be significantly down now that coal, post the March 31 shutdowns, seems to produce less than 5GW.

If in the next winter or two you get extended power cuts due to a shortage of natural gas the CO2 emissions you are saving will be of little consequence.

[woodburner]

But they will be less than if the gas stations were running, so Biff's anti-global warming campaign will get results

[biffvernon]

If in the next winter or two you get extended power cuts due to a shortage of natural gas the CO2 emissions you are saving will be of little consequence.

Power cuts may be a bad thing but the CO2 emissions will still be lower.

[vtsnowedin]

If in the next winter or two you get extended power cuts due to a shortage of natural gas the CO2 emissions you are saving will be of little consequence.

Power cuts may be a bad thing but the CO2 emissions will still be lower.

Those lower emissions will not make the people dealing with the power cuts, inconvenienced at the best, freezing to death in the dark at the worst, feel any better now will they?Well you personally might feel altruistic about it but believe me you will be in the minority.

[biffvernon]

My point had nothing to do with anybody's feelings, altruistic or otherwise. It was just an observation about the physics.

[clv101]

If in the next winter or two you get extended power cuts due to a shortage of natural gas the CO2 emissions you are saving will be of little consequence.

Power cuts may be a bad thing but the CO2 emissions will still be lower.

Those lower emissions will not make the people dealing with the power cuts, inconvenienced at the best, freezing to death in the dark at the worst, feel any better now will they?Well you personally might feel altruistic about it but believe me you will be in the minority.

To put it bluntly the situation we're faced with may well be one of pain today or greater pain tomorrow - with no painless option. What does one do with a choice like that?

[vtsnowedin]

Power cuts may be a bad thing but the CO2 emissions will still be lower.

Those lower emissions will not make the people dealing with the power cuts, inconvenienced at the best, freezing to death in the dark at the worst, feel any better now will they?Well you personally might feel altruistic about it but believe me you will be in the minority.

To put it bluntly the situation we're faced with may well be one of pain today or greater pain tomorrow - with no painless option. What does one do with a choice like that?

My beef with those in charge is the closing down of base load plants that are determined to be polluting too much before sufficient capacity of a cleaner type is in place.
If they are so sure we need to shut down these plants then get cracking on building the wind mills ,and solar panels along with the storage systems needed to actually replace them and when they get all that on line and running well and not a day before that day, THEN they can shut down the old plants we have. They are going to kill people and ruin the economy today trying to solve a problem that is years away in a way that may not help that problem one bit.

[kenneal - lagger]

....
To put it bluntly the situation we're faced with may well be one of pain today or greater pain tomorrow - with no painless option. What does one do with a choice like that?

If you're a politician you chose greater pain tomorrow, which is, unfortunately, what they're doing with climate change, because that pain will be blamed on someone else or, if it is blamed on them they won't be in office so it won't matter!

If you've got any sense though you chose pain today because that pain will be far less than the pain tomorrow.

[kenneal - lagger]

........ They are going to kill people and ruin the economy today trying to solve a problem that is years away in a way that may not help that problem one bit.

If only the problem were years away. The climate is changing now and the ice is melting now at current CO2 levels and the longer we go on burning fossil fuels the worse the problem will get later on. We have to find a way to get CO2 levels down to 280 to 300ppm in order to reduce the problems for our children and grandchildren and the fauna and flora that we share this precious planet with.

[adam2]

It is really very unlikely that anyone is going to freeze to death in the dark, in the near term at least.

The gas supplies should prove adequate PROVIDED THAT no untoward event hampers imports. The declining but still significant domestic production, and the limited storage, should suffice with the addition of imports as needed.

The problems would occur if any untoward event significantly restricted imports of natural gas. Domestic production meets only very roughly half our winter demand.

In the event of any serious reduction in gas imports for more than about a week, I would expect that the government would declare a state of emergency and take the following actions.

1) Reduce gas burnt for power generation by requiring that light oil be substituted wherever technically possible.
2)Require that national grid diesel plant be run whenever technically possible, to reduce gas used.
3) Totally prohibit use of national grid OCGT plant, better to let the lights go out than use gas so rapidly.
4) Require that large gas consumers burn oil instead, whenever technically possible.
5) Prohibit non essential uses of gas and electricity
6) Introduce rota power cuts sooner rather than later so as to conserve gas stocks.
7) Various other measures to improve supplies of electricity from any source other than gas.

With a bit of luck, those and related measures should allow use to scrape through.
Cutting of the domestic gas supply would be the very last resort as once turned off it has to stay off, probably for weeks. No such thing as rota gas cuts.

[vtsnowedin]

It is really very unlikely that anyone is going to freeze to death in the dark, in the near term at least.

The gas supplies should prove adequate PROVIDED THAT no untoward event hampers imports. The declining but still significant domestic production, and the limited storage, should suffice with the addition of imports as needed.

The problems would occur if any untoward event significantly restricted imports of natural gas. Domestic production meets only very roughly half our winter demand.

In the event of any serious reduction in gas imports for more than about a week, I would expect that the government would declare a state of emergency and take the following actions.

1) Reduce gas burnt for power generation by requiring that light oil be substituted wherever technically possible.
2)Require that national grid diesel plant be run whenever technically possible, to reduce gas used.
3) Totally prohibit use of national grid OCGT plant, better to let the lights go out than use gas so rapidly.
4) Require that large gas consumers burn oil instead, whenever technically possible.
5) Prohibit non essential uses of gas and electricity
6) Introduce rota power cuts sooner rather than later so as to conserve gas stocks.
7) Various other measures to improve supplies of electricity from any source other than gas.

With a bit of luck, those and related measures should allow use to scrape through.
Cutting of the domestic gas supply would be the very last resort as once turned off it has to stay off, probably for weeks. No such thing as rota gas cuts.

I do have to keep reminding myself of the difference between UK winter temperatures and Vermont's but for the frail and elderly it doesn't take much.
Your list of actions seems plausibly effective but do you have confidence that those in charge are actually prepared and capable of doing such in a timely manner. Having worked inside government bureaucracies for years I have grave doubts about that both here and on your side of the pond.