EU membership referendum debate thread

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 12 May 2016, 12:59

johnhemming2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:My take home is that it's too close to call, however 'leave' do seem to have momentum on their side. The Scottish referendum polls suggested a much closer result than we ended up with though. It's pretty clear Scotland and NI will vote strongly to remain - who know's how that'll work out if UK votes leave. New Indy-Scotland ref and a united Ireland!?
I am not sure any of the polls consider the millions of UK citizens who live in the EU - who have a vote if they left less than 15 years ago.

Or the millions of immigrants in the UK, who will get a vote if they are on the electoral roll.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 12 May 2016, 17:10

fuzzy wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:My take home is that it's too close to call, however 'leave' do seem to have momentum on their side. The Scottish referendum polls suggested a much closer result than we ended up with though. It's pretty clear Scotland and NI will vote strongly to remain - who know's how that'll work out if UK votes leave. New Indy-Scotland ref and a united Ireland!?
I am not sure any of the polls consider the millions of UK citizens who live in the EU - who have a vote if they left less than 15 years ago.
Or the millions of immigrants in the UK, who will get a vote if they are on the electoral roll.

People who are not UK citizens will not have a vote unless they are citizens of the RoI or commonwealth who have residency rights.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 13 May 2016, 22:19

Wolf Street: Who's really afraid of Brexit and why

Independent: IMF warns of "substantial" economic damage from Brexit

So the moneyed classes are the ones most afraid of "Brexit". The unsustainable nature of the Euro would be put into the spotlight with several countries wanting their own referendum.

Ultimately this could result in contagion in the markets - the next leg downwards.

BTW has anyone else found that the whole EU referendum has been aimed at the lowest common denominator? David Cameron blabbering on about leaving the EU will mean war - really, David? What about Afghanistan, Iraq and the Falklands - all conflicts UK forces engaged in - while the UK was (and still is at time of writing) an EU State? Then there is the Leave campaign with some drivel about the EU wants to change our kettles without bothering to investigate trivial things - such as facts.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 13 May 2016, 22:39

raspberry-blower wrote:So the moneyed classes are the ones most afraid of "Brexit". The unsustainable nature of the Euro would be put into the spotlight with several countries wanting their own referendum.

Those who understand best how the system works are most in favour of the UK having a vote on decisions. Those who understand to a lesser extent think that being "consulted" is better.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 13 May 2016, 22:51

johnhemming2 wrote: People who are not UK citizens will not have a vote unless they are citizens of the RoI or commonwealth who have residency rights.

Why do commonwealth citizens get a vote? Seems a bit odd to me.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 13 May 2016, 22:57

It relates to the concept of Empire. All citizens being equal. That is the parliamentary franchise.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 May 2016, 02:45

cubes wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote: People who are not UK citizens will not have a vote unless they are citizens of the RoI or commonwealth who have residency rights.
Why do commonwealth citizens get a vote? Seems a bit odd to me.

At a guess, because it is easier to rig their votes, if the result is tight, than risk rigging them here.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 14 May 2016, 04:43

johnhemming2 wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote: I am not sure any of the polls consider the millions of UK citizens who live in the EU - who have a vote if they left less than 15 years ago.
Or the millions of immigrants in the UK, who will get a vote if they are on the electoral roll.
People who are not UK citizens will not have a vote unless they are citizens of the RoI or commonwealth who have residency rights.

Except it's not that simple is it? Citizenship, naturalisation, fast track rubber stamped deals to keep the waiting lists down... It's all gravy for the politicians and legal parasites.

I would be astonished if the leave vote was even close anyway. That was the whole point of the vote. Offer it, then pile on the negative marketing to ensure the City gets the result they want.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 14 May 2016, 07:55

It is that simple. Obviously in a campaign there are arguments being put forward. Our choice is to participate in making decisions with a vote or to only be consulted. We are, after all, members of the eea in our own name.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 16 May 2016, 22:29

johnhemming2 wrote:It relates to the concept of Empire. All citizens being equal. That is the parliamentary franchise.

That's fine... but they're citizens of australia and new zealand, etc, not the uk. The concept of empire is fine - it just doesn't exist in practice anymore and commonwealth citizens getting a vote in uk elections just isn't right in this day and age.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 May 2016, 22:31

cubes wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:It relates to the concept of Empire. All citizens being equal. That is the parliamentary franchise.
That's fine... but they're citizens of australia and new zealand, etc, not the uk. The concept of empire is fine - it just doesn't exist in practice anymore and commonwealth citizens getting a vote in uk elections just isn't right in this day and age.

As I suggested earlier, my guess is it's the "rabbit in the hat" for when the result needs "adjusting"

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 18 May 2016, 14:02

Brexit - The Movie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 May 2016, 15:28

Latest ICM poll has Stay 48% Leave 35%, a 13% lead.

In the last 3 months and about 30 polls the biggest 'Leave' score was only 4% ahead of stay.

It may be an outlier, but it shows the Brexit side(s) have a lot of work to do.

That is, assuming the polls do not have systemic errors.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 May 2016, 15:35

Meanwhile, the latest online polls put Leave ahead.

I believe it entirely possible the big ticket polls are being rigged but, even if true, it would be hardly surprising given the wall of MSM pro-remain propaganda.

Polls should not even be a part of the MSM discourse in elections and referenda because it is a well known and understood phenomena that people will follow what they think the rest of the herd is doing.

Polls are not there to "reflect" public opinion, they are there to manipulate it.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 18 May 2016, 17:13

The polls, however, ignore those UK citizens living on the continent.