2016 - the game changing year for Industrial Civilization

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 23 Mar 2016, 07:43

There is no need to wonder. It will be impossible at any cost. Where there is uncertainty is over the timing. Hansen et al demonstrate that a multiple metre sea level rise within this or the next century is within the range of possibilities. Others think that e few centuries centuries is the more probable time-scale. Either way, the precautionary principle demands that we cease the building of major infrastructure projects that are designed for a long life near sea level and that we need to plan for loss of large areas of farmland and the migration of hundreds of millions of people at some time within the foreseeable future. All this will be necessary no matter how successful we are at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 23 Mar 2016, 10:22

Sea level rise won't just be a problem for low lying areas. It will effect the whole of the coast line and area such as the Jurassic coast, with its soft shale and clay cliffs, will take a hammering and recede until a new beach is built up to protect the base of the cliff. Even the White Cliffs of Dover and those of the rest of the south coast will recede, albeit slower than the softer areas.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Mar 2016, 11:56

Limits to growth will have substantially culled the human population in the next century. Sea level rise will be a bit part player in some areas, but the four horsemen will have leading roles.

Learn resilience and adaptability, and teach it to your children.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 23 Mar 2016, 14:59

We might ascribe probabilities to three scenarios:

1. Limits to growth will have substantially culled the human population in the next century.

2. Sea level rise will be in accordance with the Hansen et al paper.

3. Sea level rise will be in accordance with the the IPCC AR5.

4. Sea level will do something between 2 and 3.

We don't have the information to calculate the probabilities so we are left to the judgement of hunch.

For 1. I'm going for somewhere around or just below 50%.
I'll give 4 my highest score, 2 a bit lower and 3 very low indeed.

Importantly #1 is the only one that we are going to have much chance of influencing. The others are set by physics and what has already happened.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 03 Apr 2016, 17:05

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/9764 ... link_97643

Great article by Chris on how the transformation from fossil fuels to renewables is going to involve a huge and difficult transition.

Automaton · Post by **Automaton** » 03 Apr 2016, 17:24

Lord Beria3 wrote:http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/9764 ... link_97643

Great article by Chris on how the transformation from fossil fuels to renewables is going to involve a huge and difficult transition.

Excellent article, sums things up nicely. I'm not sure how he stays so positive though!

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 03 Apr 2016, 17:35

I have been through the denial, anger, despair and, eventually, acceptance. What's coming is what's coming. I just intend to carry on doing what I can to insulate myself form the worst of it, advise my kids as best I can how they can and should do the same and, wherever possible, influence the opinions and actions of others in terms of steering this nation in as best a direction as can be managed.

Beyond that, we all just have to get on with living and making the most of the present.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 04 Apr 2016, 02:48

Lord Beria3 wrote:http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/9764 ... link_97643

Great article by Chris on how the transformation from fossil fuels to renewables is going to involve a huge and difficult transition.

He doesn't say anything about just using a lot less electricity which is probably the best thing that we should do. It would drastically reduce economic growth though which is why no government will countenance it.

He also doesn't say anything about population rise reduction by educating women in the third and Moslem worlds. Most western countries have a reducing population which is why our governments are so keen on immigration and why our economists plug the "benefits" of immigration so much.

mr brightside · Post by **mr brightside** » 05 Apr 2016, 18:07

What is the best way to go about buying gold? For a while now i've wanted to buy £1000 worth of gold and brick it up into one of the house interior walls for safekeeping. It poses a few problems such as what purity level, and where to buy from; do you really want to get noticed walking out of a metal refinery with a heavy looking pocket!

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 05 Apr 2016, 18:21

Buying £1000 of Gold will not make your pockets heavy - Just over an ounce of the yellow metal!

Buying £1000 of Silver might make it noticeable though - 1 Kilo in each pocket.

I think Silver is a better bet - it has a very big upside and currently has a gold to silver ratio of about 80:1 which is at the extreme end historically. Normality would be 20:1 - draw your own conclusions......... (buy silver

)

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 05 Apr 2016, 18:30

Coins are probably the easiest way; sovereigns or half sovereigns are probably better than one of the foreign currencies. A buyer in the future might tell you that foreign currency isn't worth as much as British!

Coins come in smaller more easily changed lumps than gold bars. Try these people. Sovereigns are also VAT free.

Silver is possibly better bought as a bar than as a coin as it has many very useful industrial uses which could make it more valuable in that form.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 05 Apr 2016, 18:30

From the internet for sovereigns, or auction for unfashionable jewerly. £1000 in gold would be a very small physical size in any case. Its stupid really how it's so small yet so expensive.

two posts already before me.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 05 Apr 2016, 18:37

Snail wrote: £1000 in gold would be a very small physical size in any case. Its stupid really how it's so small yet so expensive. two posts already before me.

4.5 sovereigns or 9 half sovereigns. Looks like small change in the hand! Perhaps a bit more glossy.

mr brightside · Post by **mr brightside** » 05 Apr 2016, 19:49

Really good advice that, cheers, it also sorts my acquisition issues if they ship insured.

Who likes my stash of Lead Ore...not worth much at all, but when i get my small blast furnace built it will be fun smelting it. I tried some on a Bole once, i lost most of the lead and filled the garden with bright yellow Sulphur Dioxide fume.