EU membership referendum debate thread

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 19 Feb 2016, 17:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-35609968

David Cameron's hopes of getting a reform deal on Friday look in doubt as haggling continues at the EU summit.

European leaders have reportedly been told to book hotels as talks on a final text, planned for breakfast, slipped back first to lunch, and now to dinner.

Several EU nations are digging their heels in over plans to curb migrant benefits and change EU regulations.

The prime minster had planned to return to the UK to fire the starting gun on an EU referendum campaign on Friday.
If these EU nations actually want the UK to remain in the EU, they must back down on this stuff. If Cameron doesn't get what he wants, he is guaranteed to lose the referendum. It's that simple.

I rather suspect that the EU leaders in question have underestimated the level of hostility there is towards the EU in the UK, and particularly the level of opposition to unfettered intra-EU immigration. Cameron surely must be telling them this, but they may be interpreting it as brinkmanship when in reality his hands are tied by public opinion in the UK.

Unfortunately, the 500000 new hopefuls arriving in the UK every year aren't against intra-EU immigration and anyone older than about 55 seems oblivious to the real problems of those younger.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Feb 2016, 21:19

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-35617843

Michael Gove 'to campaign for EU exit'

Maybe the IN campaign will win after all!

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 19 Feb 2016, 21:21

UndercoverElephant wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-35617843

Michael Gove 'to campaign for EU exit'
Maybe the IN campaign will win after all!

I must admit that the response from the other EU countries to the UK's negotiation makes me really negative about the EU.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 19 Feb 2016, 22:57

johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-35617843

Michael Gove 'to campaign for EU exit'
Maybe the IN campaign will win after all!
I must admit that the response from the other EU countries to the UK's negotiation makes me really negative about the EU.

Agree John. I never thought I'd see you say that

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Feb 2016, 08:38

AutomaticEarth wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-35617843
Maybe the IN campaign will win after all!
I must admit that the response from the other EU countries to the UK's negotiation makes me really negative about the EU.
Agree John. I never thought I'd see you say that

My big problem is that to deal with technology and to protect the poorer people in society we need to subsidise wages. This, however, is undermined by those people who come into the country attracted by that. It puts pressure on the system. I don't think even with the 7 year deal that this is properly recognised by the EU. The Eastern European countries are reacting to their residents who wish to keep the cash rolling in.

However, if we end up in the EEA we have the same rules and without the ability to set the rules. Our position will be weak. Furthermore we won't be able to veto the accession of Ukraine and Turkey as only EU members can do this.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Feb 2016, 10:26

I want somebody to tell me what the bottom line is. What effect will this new deal with the EU have on

a) people from the EU currently living in the UK.
b) future movements of people between the UK and the EU.

I want to know whether it means a significant number of people from Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries will move back home again, and whether it will reduce future net immigration from the countries.

Tell me the answer to those questions and I'll tell you how I am going to vote.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Feb 2016, 11:36

UndercoverElephant wrote:I want to know whether it means a significant number of people from Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries will move back home again, and whether it will reduce future net immigration from the countries.

I would expect it to reduce future migration from those countries, but have no effect on those here at the moment.

In that some will return anyway I would expect a small amount of net emigration.

Post by **adam2** » 20 Feb 2016, 14:10

I have moved from this thread a number of posts about housing benefit, and arguments about whom it benefits, which government introduced it, etc.
Those posts may be found here
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... hp?t=25969

Please keep this thread on topic and continue housing benefit argument in that other thread.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Feb 2016, 17:15

johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:I want to know whether it means a significant number of people from Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries will move back home again, and whether it will reduce future net immigration from the countries.
I would expect it to reduce future migration from those countries, but have no effect on those here at the moment.

In that some will return anyway I would expect a small amount of net emigration.

If that is confirmed during the campaign, I'm voting OUT. It's not enough.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Feb 2016, 17:41

The difficulty is that being in the EEA is worse from that perspective.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Feb 2016, 17:59

UndercoverElephant wrote:I want somebody to tell me what the bottom line is. What effect will this new deal with the EU have on

a) people from the EU currently living in the UK.
b) future movements of people between the UK and the EU.

I want to know whether it means a significant number of people from Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries will move back home again, and whether it will reduce future net immigration from the countries.

Tell me the answer to those questions and I'll tell you how I am going to vote.

And surely:

c) people from the UK currently living in rest of EU.

My understanding is that there are similar numbers of brits in the rest of the EU as other EU nationals here?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Feb 2016, 18:12

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:I want somebody to tell me what the bottom line is. What effect will this new deal with the EU have on

a) people from the EU currently living in the UK.
b) future movements of people between the UK and the EU.

I want to know whether it means a significant number of people from Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries will move back home again, and whether it will reduce future net immigration from the countries.

Tell me the answer to those questions and I'll tell you how I am going to vote.

And surely:

c) people from the UK currently living in rest of EU.

My understanding is that there are similar numbers of brits in the rest of the EU as other EU nationals here?

Yes and no. Yes this is worth knowing, but no it doesn't make much difference.

I have some very specific and unusual interests in the outcome of this vote. While I'd like to see the net population of the UK falling, what makes the most difference to me would be large numbers of eastern europeans and people from BALTIC states (Balkans was a typo - that is eastern Europe) leaving, even if they were replaced by native Brits returning. There's about 2.5 million in both categories, but of those, most of the 2.5 million Europeans who'd be leaving know far more about edible wild fungi than the returning Brits do. I'd say, anecdotally, that between half and two-thirds of the people who currently actively forage for fungi in the UK are members of the 2.5 million who'd have to leave. From my unique perspective, this is hugely significant. Basically, if those 2.5 million Europeans stay, I would not be surprised to see fairly draconian restrictions on fungi foraging in the UK within ten years. If they go, the restrictions probably won't be needed.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Feb 2016, 18:22

Ah indeed, I see your specific interest. I generally tend to think votes like this should be based on the big picture rather than personal interest though. For example, I would be quite happy to vote for something that personally impacted me negatively if I thought there would be macroscopic benefit.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Feb 2016, 18:31

clv101 wrote:Ah indeed, I see your specific interest. I generally tend to think votes like this should be based on the big picture rather than personal interest though. For example, I would be quite happy to vote for something that personally impacted me negatively if I thought there would be macroscopic benefit.

Yes and no. Or rather, it is always a balance of both.

If it wasn't for my specific interest, I'd probably still be sitting on the fence. The specific interest pushes me off the fence, towards OUT.

oobers · Post by **oobers** » 20 Feb 2016, 18:40

From a PO perspective, is the UK best released from the EU? Will it better enable us to plan localised economies, free from the constraints of European legislation? If we become an island proper once again, will it force us to think more about self sufficiency in the things we really need? Or will we end up isolated at a time when we need the co-operation of our European neighbours to meet those needs? Surely, we can tap in to those relationships in or out of the EU?

My opinion on the immigration debate is that we should try to reduce numbers of UK immigrants, not through border controls but with a planned economic slowdown making the UK a less attractive place for migrants. If the UK were to leave the EU, I think we would be much better placed to implement TEQs for example. Immigrants with useful skills - like growing food in harsh conditions - would still be attracted whilst folks only interested in accumulating wealth may head elsewhere.

Perhaps this is all idealistic dreaming since the dominant narrative in government and society is still around growth but I cannot see how remaining in the EU gets us any nearer to such ideals.