http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-35414432
Migrant crisis: Will Merkel be left out in the cold?
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That 3,000-4,000 figure could be politically ruinous for Mrs Merkel, for - at that rate - far from the steep cut promised for 2016 by the German government, this year's asylum seekers would far exceed last year's 1.1 million.
What's more, Germany finds itself in this situation at a time of year when Mediterranean storms and freezing Balkan weather are thought to be holding migration down - spring promises still higher numbers.
Faced with this crisis, the chancellor has found herself deserted by many erstwhile allies. The CSU, the Bavarian branch of her CDU ruling party, had been muttering discontentedly for months about the numbers of new arrivals but this has now moved into open revolt.
Last week both Mrs Merkel and her popular finance minister Wolfgang Schauble went down to a CSU conference being held in the tiny spa town of Wildbad Kreuth in an attempt to persuade them to give more time to a multilateral effort to reduce the flow of migrants across Europe. But we found delegates unconvinced.
"We have to reject immigrants," said Markus Blume, a CSU member in the Bavarian state parliament. As to when Germany would have to impose its own border controls Mr Blume said, "it's a question of days or weeks but not of months".
When I asked another delegate, Hans Reichart, head of the CSU youth wing, whether this wouldn't mean the end of Europe's border agreement he replied: "Yes, it is the end of Schengen, yes."
[snip]
Where this leaves Mrs Merkel is a moot point. One local official in Landshut told me, "she will be gone by summer". But many who have bet on her political demise before - for example during the Euro crisis - have been wrong-footed by her political skill and survival instinct.
Nevertheless there is a growing worry, even within her own party, that their leader has committed herself so fully to a policy of unrestricted asylum that it could finish her. "She has not left herself a way out," one CDU politician told me. "And this is starting to worry me."
Biff Vernon,
I would like very much to put this issue to bed so the atmosphere on this forum can return to something more pleasant. In the last twelve months the political landscape of Europe, with respect to the immigration crisis, and especially where the immigrants in question are Islamic, has shifted enormously. Twelve months ago, in the UK, in the liberal European Nordic and Benelux states, and especially in Germany, the prevailing view was still a watered-down version of your own position. The prevailing view was that our first concern was the migrants, and that somehow we had to find a way to help - and in Germany in particular the view was that unlimited numbers should be allowed in. The vast majority of continental Europeans saw Schengen as irreversible, and anybody seriously opposed to further immigration was viewed, at least in public, as a right wing nutjob.
How things have changed. Angela Merkel now stands completely isolated, a bit like Hitler in his bunker as the Allies closed in on Berlin, still refusing to accept that the war was over even as his closest advisors were telling him that it was indeed finished. The flow of refugees is not diminishing even though it is the coldest part of winter, and everybody knows what is likely to happen if the policies of last year are continued. A continuation of those policies will just encourage ever greater numbers to come to Europe, and nowhere, not even in Germany, is willing to accept any more of them, not least because of the disgraceful and primitive behaviour of large numbers of them, which the authorities are in serious trouble for foolishly attempting to hide. The Schengen agreement is on its last legs, and will soon be history. Borders are going to go back up all across Europe, there is going to be a massive strengthening of Europe's external borders and Germany will cease to accept new refugees. In other words, the position that only twelve months ago was viewed as far right lunacy is on the verge of becoming the only acceptable policy all over Europe.
You, and those large numbers of people that have been defending a similar position on this, have lost the argument. The policy of allowing unlimited immigration was always going to be unsustainable - that is exactly what we have been telling you for several years, Biff. And it has now reached the point where it
can no longer be sustained and is going to come to an end.
I very much hope that the bitterness and bad feeling that has pervaded this board for so long can also come to an end, but that requires that you finally accept that the policy of unlimited immigration came to an end because it was unrealistic and unsustainable. If, alternatively, you persist in claiming the moral superiority of unrealistic and unsustainable policies even after they have so completely, publicly and irreversibly failed, the result will be even worse conflict on this forum.
It's over, Biff. Now can we please move on, and try to be friends again?