Vision of life in the middle of the century

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 21 Dec 2006, 23:18

This is one of those articles that leaves you not knowing whether to laugh or cry first.

The article is about "Horizon Scanning":

...scenarios of what life might be like around the middle of the century have emerged from 270 rigorously researched papers commissioned by the government that together purport to be the world's most extensive look into the future

Sir David King, the government's chief scientist argues horizon scanning will have a powerful influence on policy-making - and not only in Whitehall.
[...]
Although the future is not predictable, "government can't just sit back and wait for it to happen", he says. "Government has to identify opportunities and risks at least five to 10 years ahead when making policy. It can then make decisions that might move us from an unfavourable to a favourable scenario."

Similar stuff at the BBC site too.

Well it all sounds useful in theory, but in practice staring at the horizon means that the more immediate risks associated with PO have been missed altogether. We are however being forewarned that humans might have to cohabit with robots in 50 years time, and those robots will want to vote of course.

How much money is being poured into this I wonder?!?

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 22 Dec 2006, 07:54

Silly, we can?t predict the future. I think a better strategy is just tow hope for the best and plan for the worse. Also, I think we should think about what kind of future we want and work for that within the limits of what we know today.

Post by **clv101** » 22 Dec 2006, 08:04

50 years into the future? I think the next 50 years are going to be far far harder to forecast than the last 50 and we know how accurate the 1950's forecasts of the 21st century were!

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 22 Dec 2006, 15:24

clv101 wrote:50 years into the future? I think the next 50 years are going to be far far harder to forecast than the last 50 and we know how accurate the 1950's forecasts of the 21st century were!

Good point! All those 50's films with intelligent robots taking over the planet... and now this Horizon Scanning team is coming up with the same line

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 22 Dec 2006, 16:22

Don't know if any of you read "The Age of Spiritual Machines" by Raymond Kurzweil - lots of interesting ideas made redundant by peak oil.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Dec 2006, 23:59

James Martin (he of The Wired Society) has a new book 'The Meaning of the 21st Century: A Vital Blueprint for Ensuring Our Future'
A thought provoking read, suggesting various scenarios for the rest of this century. It's a roller-coaster ride of optimism and pessimism, he paints future idylls, only to pull away the rug of complacency just as one begins to relax. James Martin's credentials are second to none so it's worth taking what he says seriously, even though he does not mention Peak Oil at all.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 23 Dec 2006, 00:10

There's nothing quite so dated as yesterday's tomorrow . . .

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 23 Dec 2006, 10:54

Andy Hunt wrote:There's nothing quite so dated as yesterday's tomorrow . . .

Yes, and that's also what many PO debunkers probably think about all those predictions made in past decades about "oil running out in 40 years"!

On the other hand we can all imagine quite accurately what "tomorrow's yesterday" is going to look like as the future's historians (if they're not too busy gardening) look back with astonishment at the pillaging of the planet's resources up to and around the beginning of the 21st century.

Kentucky Fried Panda · Post by **Kentucky Fried Panda** » 22 Apr 2007, 19:20

Andy Hunt wrote:There's nothing quite so dated as yesterday's tomorrow . . .

You've seen "Escape from New York" recently too?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 22 Apr 2007, 19:23

Haggis wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:There's nothing quite so dated as yesterday's tomorrow . . .
You've seen "Escape from New York" recently too?

It's the title of a track by 'Doof' ("It's About Time" album, ambient psychedelic electronica).

Post by **clv101** » 22 Apr 2007, 19:56

Erik wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:There's nothing quite so dated as yesterday's tomorrow . . .
Yes, and that's also what many PO debunkers probably think about all those predictions made in past decades about "oil running out in 40 years"!

On the other hand we can all imagine quite accurately what "tomorrow's yesterday" is going to look like as the future's historians (if they're not too busy gardening) look back with astonishment at the pillaging of the planet's resources up to and around the beginning of the 21st century.

As we've been so hopeless at predicting the future over the last 100 years - a period where many of the important variables essentially remained unchanged I think it's simply impossible to make any reasonable future prediction.

For example the guy in 1950 making a prediction about life in 2000 had a far far easier job than the guy today making predictions about the 2050s. Given how wrong the 1950 predictions were should be enough to stop anyone today making predictions decades forwards.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Apr 2007, 21:18

What did you think of Martin James, The Meaning of the 21st Century: A Vital Blueprint for Ensuring Our Future?

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 23 Apr 2007, 07:03

I don?t think we can really predict the future but we can look at what we have today and make various different scenarios to show what might happen. A bit like what limits of growths did.

Another thing we can do; we can think about the what kind of future we want and work towards creating it.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 23 Apr 2007, 07:37

isenhand wrote: we can think about the what kind of future we want and work towards creating it.

That sounds a good approach. However, I guess both the US Neocons and the Taliban would claim that's just what they are doing. Hitler did.

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 23 Apr 2007, 08:56

biffvernon wrote:
isenhand wrote: we can think about the what kind of future we want and work towards creating it.
That sounds a good approach. However, I guess both the US Neocons and the Taliban would claim that's just what they are doing. Hitler did.

Good examples. Yes, they do and both group work towards a future that they both want. Do we?