And then a lengthy analysis of the situation with lots of facts that the mass media tend to avoid:THE shocking photos of Alan Kurdi, the 3-year-old Syrian refugee drowned and washed up on a Turkish beach, will go down in history as the moment that Europe’s “migrant crisis” was recognised for what it is: a humanitarian tragedy. The sudden lurch in public and media sentiment – and subsequent backtracking by political leaders – was very welcome. But it also emphasised how the situation has been handled: by politicking and knee-jerk reaction rather than rational policymaking.
Human migration is a complex issue that touches the West’s rawest nerves – immigration, radicalisation, inequality, economic security, national identity, and autonomy versus international cooperation. That makes it hard to deal with effectively. But efforts have also been complicated in many countries by anti-immigration parties spreading misinformation about those burning issues. When politics takes precedence over facts, tragedies tend to happen.
We can, and must, do better. The key word is “misinformation”. Complex issues require nations to respond in an informed and sophisticated way, bringing all the available evidence to bear, acting on it – and explaining it to reluctant electorates if needed. By these criteria, Europe has failed miserably.
For example, the prevailing narrative has it that Europe is experiencing an unprecedented influx of both economic migrants and refugees. The numbers suggest otherwise: according to authoritative research, labour migration into Western Europe has been falling steadily since 2007. And while refugee numbers have been climbing since the Arab Spring of 2010, they have still not reached 1992 levels, when millions of people fled the bloody disintegration of Yugoslavia.
These are just the raw numbers. When it comes to more complex analyses, there are also surprises. For example, a study published last year found that, since 2000, immigrants in the UK paid more into government coffers than they took out in benefits. That was true both for migrants from Europe and elsewhere. They even managed this during a time of government deficits, when by definition the native majority was a net drain on public resources.
That research illuminates only one aspect of how immigrants affect societies, but it is not the only example of how knee-jerk assumptions about human migration often crumble under proper scrutiny.
Such counterintuitive facts and figures are well known in the smallish circle of social scientists who research them, but are barely visible in the wider debate. That urgently needs to change because, like it or not, the present crisis is just the start.
Those same experts agree that large-scale migration will be a defining issues of this century, driven by population growth, political instability and climate change, and enabled by increased global connectivity, both physical and digital. We cannot stop it by building fences or turning away boats. So we had better get a handle on it now.
This is not just an issue for Europe. Other countries, notably the Gulf states, Brazil, Australia, the US and Canada – the country little Alan’s family was trying to get to – also have migration issues. We can all expect much more of the same in the future. If our leaders carry on making it up as they go along without recourse to evidence, they really will have a crisis on their hands.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg ... for-europe