Migrant watch (merged topic)

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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

This weeks leader in the New Scientist:
THE shocking photos of Alan Kurdi, the 3-year-old Syrian refugee drowned and washed up on a Turkish beach, will go down in history as the moment that Europe’s “migrant crisis” was recognised for what it is: a humanitarian tragedy. The sudden lurch in public and media sentiment – and subsequent backtracking by political leaders – was very welcome. But it also emphasised how the situation has been handled: by politicking and knee-jerk reaction rather than rational policymaking.

Human migration is a complex issue that touches the West’s rawest nerves – immigration, radicalisation, inequality, economic security, national identity, and autonomy versus international cooperation. That makes it hard to deal with effectively. But efforts have also been complicated in many countries by anti-immigration parties spreading misinformation about those burning issues. When politics takes precedence over facts, tragedies tend to happen.

We can, and must, do better. The key word is “misinformation”. Complex issues require nations to respond in an informed and sophisticated way, bringing all the available evidence to bear, acting on it – and explaining it to reluctant electorates if needed. By these criteria, Europe has failed miserably.

For example, the prevailing narrative has it that Europe is experiencing an unprecedented influx of both economic migrants and refugees. The numbers suggest otherwise: according to authoritative research, labour migration into Western Europe has been falling steadily since 2007. And while refugee numbers have been climbing since the Arab Spring of 2010, they have still not reached 1992 levels, when millions of people fled the bloody disintegration of Yugoslavia.

These are just the raw numbers. When it comes to more complex analyses, there are also surprises. For example, a study published last year found that, since 2000, immigrants in the UK paid more into government coffers than they took out in benefits. That was true both for migrants from Europe and elsewhere. They even managed this during a time of government deficits, when by definition the native majority was a net drain on public resources.

That research illuminates only one aspect of how immigrants affect societies, but it is not the only example of how knee-jerk assumptions about human migration often crumble under proper scrutiny.


Such counterintuitive facts and figures are well known in the smallish circle of social scientists who research them, but are barely visible in the wider debate. That urgently needs to change because, like it or not, the present crisis is just the start.

Those same experts agree that large-scale migration will be a defining issues of this century, driven by population growth, political instability and climate change, and enabled by increased global connectivity, both physical and digital. We cannot stop it by building fences or turning away boats. So we had better get a handle on it now.

This is not just an issue for Europe. Other countries, notably the Gulf states, Brazil, Australia, the US and Canada – the country little Alan’s family was trying to get to – also have migration issues. We can all expect much more of the same in the future. If our leaders carry on making it up as they go along without recourse to evidence, they really will have a crisis on their hands.
And then a lengthy analysis of the situation with lots of facts that the mass media tend to avoid:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg ... for-europe
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

kenneal - lagger wrote: We would be better off paying for them to be built ourselves.
Better add a :wink: to that.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

That New Scientist article just proves that you can use statistics to prove what you want. Take this, for example,
They even managed this during a time of government deficits, when by definition the native majority was a net drain on public resources.
Perhaps the native population was a drain on resources because the migrants were working for lower wages than the indigenous workers who were then made unemployed by the influx.

The indigenous workers have a standard of living which has been developed by trade unions and negotiation with employers over many years. The migrants, often single men, do not have the same aspirations and so are willing to live 5 or 6 to a room, to hot bed and other unsavoury habits which most people in the UK would not want to do.
a study published last year found that, since 2000, immigrants in the UK paid more into government coffers than they took out in benefits.
This does not show that they make a net benefit for the country because it notably fails to take into account the remittances back home to support families there! This is why many migrants live in such squalor, so that they can send home as much money as possible.

Why that article is in the New Scientist I have no idea. Economics and social science are not true sciences but are pseudo science.[/quote]
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jonny2mad
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Post by jonny2mad »

"What causes more suffering in the world than the stupidity of the compassionate?"Friedrich Nietzsche

optimism is cowardice oswald spengler
Little John

Post by Little John »

Notwithstanding the overarching contempt I have for Cameron et al, I am beginning to suspect that his stated "policy" of allowing in 24 thousand refugees/migrants over several years is, in fact, a stalling tactic because he has realised that the mood across the EU in general and, even, Germany in particular will, of practical necessity, change such that all the current talk of taking in hundreds of thousands of refugees shared across EU states will have completely collapsed within months. Germany was bound to roll back on its recent insanity if it wants to avoid massive internal unrest.
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Post by snow hope »

Anyone with an ounce or two of sense must realise this is going to end badly. :-( As has been said on here many times, it is simply unsustainable to allow unlimited immigration/asylum from the ME and Africa, even within the EU it was causing serious problems.

We have to ask serious questions about what we as a society/country (and all other countries need to do the same) can cope with in terms of people migration. Stating that we should take in unlimited numbers is plain silly and it seems Merkel has quickly come to regret that.

Some countries are already taking action, eg Hungary. Currently most leaders are too wrapped up in political correctness and are too timid to take the hard but realistic decisions that will need to be taken. That seems to be what politics has become - kick the can on down the road. Everybody is scared to go against public opinion, which is often formed as a result of a few TV pictures or video. :roll: The EC has become a laughing stock in terms of making any real decisions. :-(
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jonny2mad
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Post by jonny2mad »

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=fb6_1441776541 you need to see this either shes drugged or mentally ill in my opinion thats the leader of germany :shock: :shock: :shock:
"What causes more suffering in the world than the stupidity of the compassionate?"Friedrich Nietzsche

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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

snow hope wrote:Anyone with an ounce or two of sense must realise this is going to end badly.
It already has ended badly for millions of Syrians, and maybe we could have avoided it.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... step-aside
West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside'
The least we can do now is to offer all who need it asylum.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Serious stuff in a long read:
Hitler’s world may not be so far away
Misunderstanding the Holocaust has made us too certain we are ethically superior to the Europeans of the 1940s. Faced with a new catastrophe – such as devastating climate change – could we become mass killers again?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... o-far-away
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Post by Little John »

biffvernon wrote:Serious stuff in a long read:
Hitler’s world may not be so far away
Misunderstanding the Holocaust has made us too certain we are ethically superior to the Europeans of the 1940s. Faced with a new catastrophe – such as devastating climate change – could we become mass killers again?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... o-far-away
Hitler's world is precisely what you and people like you are busy hurtling us all towards.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... iterranean
UK warship will be used to 'board, seize and divert' refugee boats
How long before we start 'diverting' these boats vertically downwards?
AutomaticEarth
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Post by AutomaticEarth »

All getting a bit messy in Hungary now, with tear gas and water cannon being used after some of the migrants kicked off. From what I'm hearing Croatia is allowing free transit but Slovenia seems to be following Hungary's lead.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

biffvernon wrote:
snow hope wrote:Anyone with an ounce or two of sense must realise this is going to end badly.
It already has ended badly for millions of Syrians, and maybe we could have avoided it.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... step-aside
West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside'
The least we can do now is to offer all who need it asylum.
You should read that article through to the end, Biff and you'll see that it is not as clear cut as you make out. It's just another example of you ignoring/forgetting what doesn't suit your case.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

PS_RalphW wrote:How long before we start 'diverting' these boats vertically downwards?
I thought you were a bit more objective than that remark suggests. It is quite possible to remove the traffickers from these boats and return the migrants to their point of embarkation. The migrants from Libya are, to a large extent, made up of economic migrants from West Africa who we have no interest nor advantage at all in taking in.

I saw on a BBC news film of migrants landing in Greece a RIB returning towards Turkey with two people in it. Why aren't these boats sunk and the traffickers in them arrested? That would slow the flow of migrants drastically.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

AutomaticEarth wrote:All getting a bit messy in Hungary now, with tear gas and water cannon being used after some of the migrants kicked off. From what I'm hearing Croatia is allowing free transit but Slovenia seems to be following Hungary's lead.
It is only a matter of time before Croatia also puts up a fence. It really is the only way this can end.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 16 Sep 2015, 21:50, edited 1 time in total.
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