Migrant watch (merged topic)

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kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

biffvernon wrote:And you really think, Ken, that dropping bombs is the answer?
And you really think that we can negotiate with ISIS? You think that when they have taken over the Middle East that they will stay there?

Do you remember how well appeasement worked in the 1930s? Chamberlin didn't want to drop bombs on the Nazis and look where that got him and us! Didn't your parents flee from such a despot? You obviously haven't learnt anything from your family's history!

The Middle East is anything but peacefull at the moment so dropping bombs on military targets and convoys isn't going to make a lot of difference.

Your intellect is falling into question in my and many other people's estimation, biff.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Little John wrote:"Can you spot the war that's coming"

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/wa ... re-6381894
That article contradicts itself somewhat! He says that bombing has killed 20,000 ISIS troops and then that it doesn't work and that it kills civilians. It depends on where you are bombing.

Tactical bombing in support of ground troops is very unlikely to kill civilians as they will have left active fighting zones. In these areas there are going to be large numbers of ISIS troops who are legitimate military targets and bombing them gives a huge advantage to the opposing troops.

The ISIS supply lines are very long and attacking these would force the ISIS troops to withdraw or would at least affect their fighting ability - you can't fight so effectively if you're short of ammunition. There have been some reports that US and UK special forces have been operating behind ISIS lines to disrupt this fighting ability. giving friendly troops the ability to fight like the Long Range Desert Group did in the last war would help.

The terrain is ideal for it and ISIS have no airforce to counter it while Iraqi and Kurdish forces have either their own or US/UK air forces to call on for backup. There are plenty of ground troops available, especially in Iraq, if the religious problems between different units could be ironed out.

It is surely better to fight ISIS now while there are local troops available to bear the brunt of the fighting and we still have access to Middle Eastern oil. If we allow ISIS to take over and gain access to all the oil fields plus the military stores of the Iraqis, Saudis and Gulf States they will have enough munitions to go into Iran and we will not have enough oil to take them on. And no oil would mean economic collapse for us as well.

We have two options: to fight them now or to invite them in and convert to Sunni Islam en masse. Thinking about it there is a third option and that is to die!
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

fuzzy wrote:The trouble is we don't drop them on the Saud royal family
Have you learned nothing from Yugoslavia, Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Libya? It's the despots who keep these countries from erupting completely. OK, they kill a few people but not as many as get killed when they go!
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Post by fuzzy »

The Saud royals are not a stabilising force - the exact opposite. I agree that things tend to get worse where the US and the UK gov interfere. If Saudi oil dissappeared I would laff myself silly. I can walk and ride a bike. Plenty clowns 'better' than me would face a new reality.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

So you think ISIS taking over Saudi Arabia and killing all the Shias and ex-pats living there would be a good thing, replacing one despot with another even more ruthless despot. Do you not think Iran might not like this and fight back because they know that if the Saudis fall that they will be next on the list. ISIS hate the "heretical" Shias even more than they hate us Kuffars!

Do you think that an ISIS controlled SA would still supply us with oil? They might but the price would be nowhere near what we are paying at the moment. They know that they would have us over a rack and would use it s a form of warfare to weaken us, Europe that is, before the physical Jihad was aimed at us. If they are allowed to prosper they will exact revenge for the Crusades and there will be no mercy. You only have to look at their Facebook page to see that.

Do you have no knowledge of history? Didn't they teach you anything at school or is your brain too fuzzy to learn from the past?
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Post by biffvernon »

kenneal - lagger wrote: And you really think that we can negotiate with ISIS?
Nope, I never suggested that negotiating with ISIS would achieve anything.
kenneal - lagger wrote: The Middle East is anything but peacefull at the moment so dropping bombs on military targets and convoys isn't going to make a lot of difference.
Well if it isn't going to make a lot of difference, why do it?
kenneal - lagger wrote: Your intellect is falling into question in my and many other people's estimation, biff.
If you're going to join the others who resort to personal abuse then you're joining the list of those whose posts I don't bother looking at any more. And for a PS admin to resort to that means we've hit a new low. :(
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Post by biffvernon »

kenneal - lagger wrote: Do you have no knowledge of history? Didn't they teach you anything at school or is your brain too fuzzy to learn from the past?
Ken, that is personal abuse not rational discussion. I expect site admin to set an example on posting etiquette.
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Post by fuzzy »

kenneal - lagger wrote:So you think ISIS taking over Saudi Arabia and killing all the Shias and ex-pats living there would be a good thing, replacing one despot with another even more ruthless despot. Do you not think Iran might not like this and fight back because they know that if the Saudis fall that they will be next on the list. ISIS hate the "heretical" Shias even more than they hate us Kuffars!

Do you think that an ISIS controlled SA would still supply us with oil? They might but the price would be nowhere near what we are paying at the moment. They know that they would have us over a rack and would use it s a form of warfare to weaken us, Europe that is, before the physical Jihad was aimed at us. If they are allowed to prosper they will exact revenge for the Crusades and there will be no mercy. You only have to look at their Facebook page to see that.

Do you have no knowledge of history? Didn't they teach you anything at school or is your brain too fuzzy to learn from the past?
Well I know your example of Yugoslavia doesn't work as the bloodshed happened because 'the west' did not intervene. It did not have a ruthless leader - it had the most moderate communist leader in Tito, who we did not remove. The Balkan regions never chose to be integrated, and I wouldn't be suprised if outside forces from the ME weren't feeding dissidence - as in Chechnya.

You may just find that the funding and rhetoric feeding the Taliban, ISIL, mujahedin and earlier, is in fact Saudi, who have way too much money and time on their hands to behave well. The Iranians are not the bogeymen, that is just the US rhetoric to please the Wahhabi. I don't want to see Iranians with nukes, but I can see why they feel it would help their security. As for any expats in KSA, if they want to dance with the devil....

Recommended reading:

Ghosts of Afghanistan - Jonathan Steele
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Post by vtsnowedin »

fuzzy wrote: The Iranians are not the bogeymen, that is just the US rhetoric to please the Wahhabi.
Yes of course, The Iranians have always been the most peace loving of peoples going back to ancient Greek and Persian times. You never hear them say "Death to America" The Great Satin. Or that they will "wipe Israel from the face of the earth. :roll:
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

vtsnowedin wrote:
fuzzy wrote: The Iranians are not the bogeymen, that is just the US rhetoric to please the Wahhabi.
Yes of course, The Iranians have always been the most peace loving of peoples going back to ancient Greek and Persian times. You never hear them say "Death to America" The Great Satin. Or that they will "wipe Israel from the face of the earth. :roll:
Those things are far from being specifically Iranian in nature. The whole Islamic world views the US as "the Great Satan", for two main reasons. Firstly the US is the ultimate manifestation of everything Islam believes is evil - they are the ultimate "idolaters". Secondly, Israel only continues to exist because of unquestioned US support.

In case you hadn't noticed, the 9/11 bombers weren't from Iran. They were from Saudi Arabia, which the US supports.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Tito might have been moderate politically but he was a "strong" ruler who brooked no decent. Once he went the whole place collapsed as happened in the Arab countries more recently. We did intervene in the Balkans, eventually, and we bombed the *** out of Serbia to achieve it. Peace has now, thankfully, ensued in that area. Fuzzy, you say that the Balkan regions didn't chose to be integrated but neither did Iraq, Syria of Libya either. They were all held together by "strong" rulers as is Saudi Arabia. So perhaps we should increase our bombing of ISIS in support of local troops in the hope that peace will eventually ensue in the ME. I do not think that we should put troops on the ground because of the weird mentality of the locals who would see it as an invasion of Kuffars or Crusaders even if we were invited!!

You don't say anything about what we should do with SA. You said that it is a pity that we don't drop bombs on then which implies that you have learned no lessons from our intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. Removing the leadership from SA, even if they are a problem now, could and probably would lead to similar and worse problems to the ones that we are seeing elsewhere in the ME. Better the devil we know!

I said that SA was funding the Sunnis in Syria and I agree that they are probably funding terrorist groups elsewhere but they are selling us oil and they are not sending out murderous hordes such as ISIS. Certain factions in SA may be sending out small numbers of terrorists but they are more manageable than ISIS.

I didn't say that the Iranians are bogeymen. I said that they are funding Shia militias throughout the Arab world to counterbalance the funding to Sunni militias just as the US are funding Israel. All that funding is feeding the fighting in the area and Europe is paying for it through the migrant crisis. Perhaps we should ship some of the migrants on to Iran, SA and the USA for them to look after.

You haven't as yet, Fuzzy, justified your comment that we are not bombing the SA royal family. You haven't said why we should and what it would achieve. All you have said is a flippant remark about you being OK if the oil dried up because you ride a bike.

It is patently obvious to most thinking people that even if you do ride a bike you wouldn't be alright because your food supply depends on that oil from SA. We use between 5 and 10 calories of oil to produce one calorie of food so you would be as stuffed as the next man because you wouldn't have the energy to turn the pedals.

The trouble in this debate is that too many people throughout the country have given up logical thinking about the migrant crisis or are just ignorant of the facts and causes and outcomes. Some people who did know these facts seem to have forgotten them in their rush to support a favoured political cause. So we are getting nowhere in this discussion fast. It is no wonder that we are reduced to less than a dozen regular posters.

As for individual criticism I am not the only one dishing it out. I have received plenty on Facebook for my stance and from a person who frequents this site as well.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Biff you haven't suggested anything sensible about this conflict other than the completely unsustainable act of taking vast numbers of migrants from the conflict. You seem to think, because you haven't said anything that would result in a contrary outcome, that we should do nothing which would allow ISIS to take over the ME completely. And once they had done that they would commence attacking Europe in one way or another.

Their initial attack would, as I have said, probably be through the oil price and our addiction to the product. They could then activate the sleeper cells that they are undoubtedly sending in with your beloved migrants. With the economic and resultant social chaos from an increased oil price and that from fifth column attacks they could probably walk into large parts of Europe unimpeded.

The Middle East is anything but peacefull at the moment so dropping bombs on military targets and convoys isn't going to make a lot of difference to the levels of peace. The dropping of bombs has reduced the military effort that can be exerted by ISIS by 20,000 troops together with a significant number of vehicles which is quite considerable.

I resorted to personal criticism because I am flabbergasted by what I see as your your complete lack of intellectual integrity in this argument. This marks a new low because I have tried to draw out proper reasoned argument but have been unable to achieve it. My level of personal criticism has not dropped to profanity just yet but could do out of sheer frustration in the future.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Biff, you have criticised on Facebook my mention of sea level rise as a driver of migration in the near future.

James Hanson disagrees with you on this in his latest paper. In a comment in this article he says
My conclusion, based on the total information available, is that continued high emissions would result in multi-meter sea level rise this century and lock in continued ice sheet disintegration such that building cities or rebuilding cities on coast lines would become foolish.
This comment and his paper are the result of the scrutiny of over 300 separate research papers as well as his own observations into new methods of ice loss. He has always been your guru in the past so I hope you can take on board the very serious message that he is now promoting.

A further quote mentions decadal time scales for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
For example, a recent ice sheet model sensitivity study finds that incorporating the physical processes of hydrofracturing of ice and ice cliff failure increases their calculated sea level rise from 2 meters to 17 meters and reduces the potential time for West Antarctic collapse to decadal time scales.
I will start a new thread for this discussion but I wished to mention it here as it will be a significant drive of mass migration both internally and internationally.
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Post by biffvernon »

kenneal - lagger wrote:Biff, you have criticised on Facebook my mention of sea level rise as a driver of migration in the near future.
That is not true. I criticised your suggestion that sea level rise would restrict the area of land available in Lincolnshire in the near future. Your suggestion was false even in the light of the recent Hansen et al paper. It's a subject I take a rather close eye on.

As a driver of migration from parts of Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, south-east China and elsewhere, sea level rise is, of course, an issue that may become very serious within a few decades. But that wasn't what you were talking about in the facebook discussion.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

UndercoverElephant wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
fuzzy wrote: The Iranians are not the bogeymen, that is just the US rhetoric to please the Wahhabi.
Yes of course, The Iranians have always been the most peace loving of peoples going back to ancient Greek and Persian times. You never hear them say "Death to America" The Great Satin. Or that they will "wipe Israel from the face of the earth. :roll:
Those things are far from being specifically Iranian in nature. The whole Islamic world views the US as "the Great Satan", for two main reasons. Firstly the US is the ultimate manifestation of everything Islam believes is evil - they are the ultimate "idolaters". Secondly, Israel only continues to exist because of unquestioned US support.

In case you hadn't noticed, the 9/11 bombers weren't from Iran. They were from Saudi Arabia, which the US supports.
Well if the whole Islamic world considers the USA the "Great Satan" then they should stop doing business with the Devil. Sell us no more oil or buy any weapons from us and certainly not accept any food or other aid.
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