I too saw Colin Campbell on the Money Programme in '99 and it really stuck with me. I didn't have much of an appreciation of the implications at that stage I remember talking with my family about the potential for conflict in the Middle East and central Asia. Three years later and we're in Afghanistan, and I hear rumours about a pipeline route, then the buildup to war in Iraq in 2002 was what really convinced me that oil was the real agenda in the War On Terror. The whole WMD thing really just stank of propaganda from the outset. All the while peak oil was at the back of my mind.
I think I stumbled on a discussion on Hubbert Peak in a web forum around 2003. I think I went to a number of sites at that time, including dieoff and lifeaftertheoilcrash, and while I was reluctant to accept the doomsday scenarios posited on those sites they had the effect of really getting me immersed in the subject. By the time the 2004 price spikes started I was seeing everything through the lens of peak oil. Unfortunately I was unable to persuade my family of the reality and importance of the issue until last night (after more than a year of me obsessing about the subject), when I showed them my recently acquired copy of The End of Suburbia. I think $65 oil helped the penny to finally drop too.
How did you find out about PO?
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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johnathome
- Posts: 37
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Living in Gordon Brown's HELL
Hi Everyone,
Been lurking and reading for a coupla days now.
I watched Mike Ruppert's 'The truth and lies of 9/11' went to FTW site and followed a few links and found myself here.
Read LATOC and a UK specific PO site, which i can't find now.
Scared the bejesus outta me! We're all up the creek without a paddle and i can't even make one as i'm not a carpenter
If you look at my occupation you'll see i'll be out of a job before i retire.
Good job i worked on a farm when i was younger!
I'll be joining in the discussions on a lot of the subforums so you'll see me around!
Good Luck!! and i mean that most sincerely folks, yes i do*
John
*Thank's to Hughie Green
Been lurking and reading for a coupla days now.
I watched Mike Ruppert's 'The truth and lies of 9/11' went to FTW site and followed a few links and found myself here.
Read LATOC and a UK specific PO site, which i can't find now.
Scared the bejesus outta me! We're all up the creek without a paddle and i can't even make one as i'm not a carpenter
If you look at my occupation you'll see i'll be out of a job before i retire.
Good job i worked on a farm when i was younger!
I'll be joining in the discussions on a lot of the subforums so you'll see me around!
Good Luck!! and i mean that most sincerely folks, yes i do*
John
*Thank's to Hughie Green
Think i might have to get another job!!
I'm a Hydraulic's Engineer.
I'm a Hydraulic's Engineer.
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peaknik1234
- Posts: 2
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
I first heard the term "peak oil" in late 2003 when I saw Michael Ruppert's "The Truth and Lies of 9 11" documentary. In that film he simply stated that mankind had used up half the hydrocarbon energy availble on planet earth in 150 years.
It wasn't until early 2005 when I read his book "Crossing the Rubicon" that I learnt the true potential and likely implications of peak oil. The first chapter "petroleum man" really flipped upside down my view of the world.
It wasn't until early 2005 when I read his book "Crossing the Rubicon" that I learnt the true potential and likely implications of peak oil. The first chapter "petroleum man" really flipped upside down my view of the world.
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johnathome
- Posts: 37
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Living in Gordon Brown's HELL
I haven't seen Crossing the Rubicon, gonna make that the next one i see.
I've just watched Oil Storm which is a film/doc on what would happen if a hurricane destroyed the Gulf refinerys. Yep, it was made after Katrina.
It shows what effect $150 barrel oil would have on the American Economy, as told through the effect on two families, a Farmer and a guy that owns a Gas station.
John
I've just watched Oil Storm which is a film/doc on what would happen if a hurricane destroyed the Gulf refinerys. Yep, it was made after Katrina.
It shows what effect $150 barrel oil would have on the American Economy, as told through the effect on two families, a Farmer and a guy that owns a Gas station.
John
Think i might have to get another job!!
I'm a Hydraulic's Engineer.
I'm a Hydraulic's Engineer.
Hi John.
I thought Oil Storm was made before Katrina?
edit - "Directed by James Erskine and written by Erskine and Caroline Levy, it originally aired on FX Networks on June 5, 2005, at 8 PM EST."
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Storm
The thing that amazed me about the film (docu-drama) was how closely it predicted Katrina - only a couple of days out! I think it should be mandatory viewing for everybody - oh, but the end was silly and should be cut.
I thought Oil Storm was made before Katrina?
edit - "Directed by James Erskine and written by Erskine and Caroline Levy, it originally aired on FX Networks on June 5, 2005, at 8 PM EST."
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Storm
The thing that amazed me about the film (docu-drama) was how closely it predicted Katrina - only a couple of days out! I think it should be mandatory viewing for everybody - oh, but the end was silly and should be cut.
Real money is gold and silver
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johnathome
- Posts: 37
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Living in Gordon Brown's HELL
Nice to find another credible Uk site addressing the issue.
I am a moderately successful retired businessman. I have been an avid student and researcher of 'Peak Oil' for about 3 years now. I have read, pondered and digested much of the available literature. I am emphatically not your everyman conception of a cranky green environmentalist doomsayer by a long chalk. However, judged by the comfortable western materialist 'good-life' standards that much of the world aspires to, I have concluded that this issue is the gravest ever faced by humanity - BAR NONE.
I also believe that its gravity is clearly understood by 'big business' and most governing elites of the developed world - certainly those of Europe and the USA whose foreign policies are almost wholly determined by it. But for the purposes of normal political discourse it is the 'elephant in the living room' issue par excellence - an issue which our political processes are simply unable to acknowledge or engage with effectively
For all kinds of reasons which may emerge if I continue to contribute here, I frankly have little faith in the value of 'awareness campaigning' on the issue, and still less in the political systems of the UK. Without going into detail right now, it's hardly an exaggeration to say that my prognosis for human civilisation on this planet has become close to apocalyptic. As a result, my concern is primarily for my immediate family and local community, and to share insights with others who have reached similar conclusions - hence this first post.
The days of planeloads of tourists jetting off to exotic parts to oggle reverred ancient monuments that took less energy to build than their planes burn to get them there, are numbered. The day will come - probably within the lifetime of my children, when of necessity the impracticality (not to say impossibility) of importing every morsel we eat from far-flung places, rescues our farmers from their current despised and demonized minority status.
In a nutshell, and through much trauma, I see the world becoming a much larger place with a much smaller population - and on a timeframe which will affect the majority of its current population directly. Problem is that getting there is likely to involve conflicts and upheavals on a scale which will make those of the 20th century seem trivial in comparison.
All IMHO
I am a moderately successful retired businessman. I have been an avid student and researcher of 'Peak Oil' for about 3 years now. I have read, pondered and digested much of the available literature. I am emphatically not your everyman conception of a cranky green environmentalist doomsayer by a long chalk. However, judged by the comfortable western materialist 'good-life' standards that much of the world aspires to, I have concluded that this issue is the gravest ever faced by humanity - BAR NONE.
I also believe that its gravity is clearly understood by 'big business' and most governing elites of the developed world - certainly those of Europe and the USA whose foreign policies are almost wholly determined by it. But for the purposes of normal political discourse it is the 'elephant in the living room' issue par excellence - an issue which our political processes are simply unable to acknowledge or engage with effectively
For all kinds of reasons which may emerge if I continue to contribute here, I frankly have little faith in the value of 'awareness campaigning' on the issue, and still less in the political systems of the UK. Without going into detail right now, it's hardly an exaggeration to say that my prognosis for human civilisation on this planet has become close to apocalyptic. As a result, my concern is primarily for my immediate family and local community, and to share insights with others who have reached similar conclusions - hence this first post.
The days of planeloads of tourists jetting off to exotic parts to oggle reverred ancient monuments that took less energy to build than their planes burn to get them there, are numbered. The day will come - probably within the lifetime of my children, when of necessity the impracticality (not to say impossibility) of importing every morsel we eat from far-flung places, rescues our farmers from their current despised and demonized minority status.
In a nutshell, and through much trauma, I see the world becoming a much larger place with a much smaller population - and on a timeframe which will affect the majority of its current population directly. Problem is that getting there is likely to involve conflicts and upheavals on a scale which will make those of the 20th century seem trivial in comparison.
All IMHO
Welcome to the forum Nimrod.
Although a few years from retirement yet, I run my own small computer reseller business supplying quite a few well known blue-chip companies in Ireland with IT facilities. I also am far from the "cranky green environmentalist doomsayer " you mention.
I have come to very similar conclusions in the 6 months I have been aware of PO, albeit I think you will also see the direct effects of decline, not just your children. Unfortunatley I believe the implications of PO are much close than we expect.
So what mitigation have you put in place or planned for your nearest and dearest?
Although a few years from retirement yet, I run my own small computer reseller business supplying quite a few well known blue-chip companies in Ireland with IT facilities. I also am far from the "cranky green environmentalist doomsayer " you mention.
I have come to very similar conclusions in the 6 months I have been aware of PO, albeit I think you will also see the direct effects of decline, not just your children. Unfortunatley I believe the implications of PO are much close than we expect.
So what mitigation have you put in place or planned for your nearest and dearest?
Real money is gold and silver
Hi there SH.snow hope wrote:Welcome to the forum Nimrod.
I agree that we'll see major PO effects during my lifetime - in fact we are already seeing them, though largely unacknowledged as such. It is part of the hidden subtext to almost all foreign policy-making and it's proximity goes a long way to explaining US global military deployments and in particular US/UK involvement in the Middle East.
As for my mitigation activity - not much that would be obvious to a casual observer: I try to make certain those I hold dear are boned up on the issue and its implications. I have always been close to the rural/farming way of life and see the skills they nurture as increasingly valuable - so I avoid supermarket shopping for example.
Many of my cherished, long-held, comfortable and (if I'm honest) self-satisfied/conceited world views have been abandoned. I no longer subscribe to national or political agendas for (another) example, believing that the full implications of PO render them all largely irrelevant.
BTW - used to run micro-computer dealerships myself. Sold out to P&P Micro Distributers (Pete & Pam Computers as was) in the mid-eighties. Also, wife is from NI (Co Fermanagh) so I know it well.
Best wishes
Like my late Mother I seem to have a gift using a combination of facts and applying logic of very successfully predicting certain events in the future with unbelieveable accuracy.
In 1957, aged 11 during the daily November choking pea souper smogs I dared suggest to the Science Teacher that eventually we would pollute all the world and be unable to breathe. Further more as I observed the sewage being pumped into the sea everyday, we would poison overselves.
As I refused to accept this as being "Utter Poppycock" I was canned 18 times. As in over 40 years nothing much has changed, I keep such predictions with their dire consquences, to a small circle of interested people. For some years I have been working out the likely events happening when the oil runs out, including how to recognise the warning signs, some of which have materialized already. Finally some people are begining to take notice and their views are immensely important to the big picture not to mention my ego.
Searching for such people I found Powerswitch.
In 1957, aged 11 during the daily November choking pea souper smogs I dared suggest to the Science Teacher that eventually we would pollute all the world and be unable to breathe. Further more as I observed the sewage being pumped into the sea everyday, we would poison overselves.
As I refused to accept this as being "Utter Poppycock" I was canned 18 times. As in over 40 years nothing much has changed, I keep such predictions with their dire consquences, to a small circle of interested people. For some years I have been working out the likely events happening when the oil runs out, including how to recognise the warning signs, some of which have materialized already. Finally some people are begining to take notice and their views are immensely important to the big picture not to mention my ego.
Searching for such people I found Powerswitch.
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peaky
Welcome to the site nimrod.nimrod wrote:I am emphatically not your everyman conception of a cranky green environmentalist doomsayer by a long chalk.
That made me smile a bit as:
You're obviously cranky, as your view is out of step with the majority of public opinion, the IEA, USGS etc.
You may not be politically Green, but environmentalism and green to tend to go hand in hand - one being shorthand for the other - and what you are commenting on is about the relationship between humanity and its environment and the consequenques of our actions and/or inaction that will lead to real problems for us in time (and other species too) which sounds sneakily like environmentalism to me.
You're also a doomsayer: "I have concluded that this issue is the gravest ever faced by humanity - BAR NONE"
So, welcome to the club
And just goes to show that the everyman concept is yet another stereotype...
I found out about peak oil around 2 years ago mainly from looking at democratic underground where the phrase peak oil was often mentioned,
I then purchased the Long emergency and spent about 1 month worrying shitless, i then calmed down and went out and purchased powerdown and high noon for natural gas.
I then started contemplating if life was at all substanable in Malta (the country which i live with my young wife and very young children)
I came to the conclusion that a country the size of Malta (smaller than isle of white) with a massive population density with little or no arable land due to unsubstanable construction and an annual rainfall of about 40 days a year would be a really shitty place to be post peak.
So i then sold my house for an over inflated price and look forward to coming home to the UK next march, we have been looking at eco houses and hybrid cars.
I actually think that the UK wont be such a bad place to be post peak, why?
The Uk will be able to feed its population, the baby boomers will begin to die off in the next 10 to 15 years.
When decline really sets in many of the european immigrants will want to leave and population will decline.
Britain has a fairly decent public transport network and will soon be building a new generation of nuclear power stations, we are already building numerous wind farms.
We have a strong monarcy and prince Charles is well and truly aware of PO as well as Mr. Blair.
We have plenty of arable land, we still have coal left and about another decade of north sea oil left?
Malta will be a hopless case, not able to feed itself, we have just witnessed a 52% surcharge in electricity rates and we are seeing the beginning of some major demand destruction.
Where would you rather be? Malta or UK?
I then purchased the Long emergency and spent about 1 month worrying shitless, i then calmed down and went out and purchased powerdown and high noon for natural gas.
I then started contemplating if life was at all substanable in Malta (the country which i live with my young wife and very young children)
I came to the conclusion that a country the size of Malta (smaller than isle of white) with a massive population density with little or no arable land due to unsubstanable construction and an annual rainfall of about 40 days a year would be a really shitty place to be post peak.
So i then sold my house for an over inflated price and look forward to coming home to the UK next march, we have been looking at eco houses and hybrid cars.
I actually think that the UK wont be such a bad place to be post peak, why?
The Uk will be able to feed its population, the baby boomers will begin to die off in the next 10 to 15 years.
When decline really sets in many of the european immigrants will want to leave and population will decline.
Britain has a fairly decent public transport network and will soon be building a new generation of nuclear power stations, we are already building numerous wind farms.
We have a strong monarcy and prince Charles is well and truly aware of PO as well as Mr. Blair.
We have plenty of arable land, we still have coal left and about another decade of north sea oil left?
Malta will be a hopless case, not able to feed itself, we have just witnessed a 52% surcharge in electricity rates and we are seeing the beginning of some major demand destruction.
Where would you rather be? Malta or UK?
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peaky
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peaky
