Labour Party/government Watch

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 30 Jul 2015, 22:02

UndercoverElephant wrote:I have no idea what this statement is supposed to mean.

I did a speech and Q&A last night that looked at a number of issues including social capital.
http://johnhemming.blogspot.co.uk/2015/ ... itish.html

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 02 Aug 2015, 10:21

Well, I've paid my £3 so I can vote for Mr Corbyn.

I see no ethical problem in doing so. I believe a Corbyn-led Labour party is worth supporting, so why not. Especially given I live in Amber Rudd's constituency and Labour are the only challenger. I voted Labour in May.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 02 Aug 2015, 11:31

Well done UE.

Why I'm voting Corbyn:
http://biffvernon.blogspot.co.uk/2015/0 ... orbyn.html

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 02 Aug 2015, 18:38

I'm also voting Corbyn and so are many of my peers and pretty much the entirety of my sons peers, including my sons.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 02 Aug 2015, 19:21

Well, this is going to be very interesting. The parliamentary Labour Party never dreamt this could happen, or he wouldn't be on the ballot paper. One does have to wonder what happens next. It is hard to see how they can rig the election, and I can't see how they can get away with calling it off so if Corbyn wins he becomes leader. Then what? There was talk of an immediate coup to bring him down by Christmas, but it seems to have faded away and I think it would look very bad if the Blairites actually tried to pull a stunt like that. So they'll probably hope he's going to be so left wing that he has trouble putting a shadow cabinet together or keeping the party from descending into chaos. But if he's got an ounce of nous - and it looks like he has plenty - then he'll employ a strategy that is left of the Blairites, but not so far to the left that everything goes tits up. If he gets it right then he'll be sitting on a Labour party that's suddenly had a big boost in membership and registered supporters, nearly all of them to the left of the Blairites. And if there's also a significant improvement in Labour's position in the polls? What could the Blairites do? Try to claim that Corbyn remains unelectable even though Labour are doing better in the polls?

And if he does stay in place, how will the Tories respond? Seems to me that if they implement the hard right agenda they want to - much more austerity, tax cuts for the rich, dismantling the welfare state, etc... - then all they are going to do is drive people into the hands of Corbyn's New New Labour, which is a good thing. But if they are aware of this danger, and soften the agenda...that's also a good thing!

Interesting times.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 02 Aug 2015, 19:49

What happens next?

Corbyn has a "walking accident" sometime during the next five years. The enquiry of which will take at least ten years and will finally conclude he kicked himself to death.

Or something like that....

This is bigger than UK politics. Cameron's mates in the international corporate world will make it clear someone like Corbyn is not allowed. We've all witnessed the naked power used against Greece. The gloves are off and so, increasingly, is any pretence of serving the interests of ordinary people. The interesting question is at what point will those same ordinary people start to engage in insurrectionist acts in response. It's already happening elsewhere but, until now, all we have had in the UK is the mindless thrashing of the underclass a couple of years back. But, now the middle class are starting to seriously hurt, including their kids who are coming out of university with a lifetime's debt hanging round their necks.

Piss off the middle class and you don't get riots, you get revolution

Post by **adam2** » 02 Aug 2015, 19:51

Does it really matter who leads the Labour party at present ?
It is most unlikely that Labour will win power for nearly 5 years, by which time it is likely that the leadership will have changed again.

The choice of leader going into the next election is important, the choice of PRESENT/near future leadership is IMHO of little consequence.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 02 Aug 2015, 20:26

adam2 wrote:Does it really matter who leads the Labour party at present ?

Yes.

It is most unlikely that Labour will win power for nearly 5 years, by which time it is likely that the leadership will have changed again.

Not neccesarily. If a Corbyn-led Labour party does well in the polls and wins by-elections then he might well still be there in 2020.

Post by **clv101** » 02 Aug 2015, 20:55

Despite all the media coverage, I'm not convinced, yet, that he'll get enough support once all the 2nd choices have been totalled.

I'd also be very interested to hear if the Labour Party has actually identified any new 'supporter' they deam unworthy of a ballot paper.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 02 Aug 2015, 21:14

clv101 wrote: I'd also be very interested to hear if the Labour Party has actually identified any new 'supporter' they deam unworthy of a ballot paper.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/ ... -rejected/

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 02 Aug 2015, 22:14

It looks like Corbyn is going to try very hard to become Prime Minister.

Today Jeremy has issued a statement on the overriding need for unity, coinciding with the close of supporting nominations.

Jeremy has received the highest number of constituency party nominations. He has also won the support of the most trade unions and affiliates.

Jeremy Corbyn’s unity appeal says:

“We have now completed the formal nomination phase of Labour’s leadership election, and as we move closer to the ballot itself our watchword must be unity, with a debate embracing all members from all parts of the party.

“The leadership election should be conducted with one thought in mind: our objective is to be a united party focused on winning the general election and campaigning across the country, day in day out. Everywhere, from a local council election, to the Scottish, Welsh and London elections, we will need unity to win.

“Everything that everyone says and does in this leadership election should be about unity, not division. There is no place for personal animosity, negative campaigning, and saying or doing anything now that will damage our ability to work together as one party.

“Whoever wins the leadership must work tirelessly every day to forge Labour into a united and successful party.

“Let us do policy and politics, not personal criticism. Supporters of all candidates must put this positive spirit first, in the interests of our party.

“When the dust has settled, we will still all be Labour. Let’s conduct our debate on the basis of comradeship and unity in action against the damaging agenda of the Tory party.”

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 02 Aug 2015, 23:35

Interesting psychology here:

http://moneyweek.com/jeremy-corbyn-rise ... n-the-bud/

It is no longer beyond the bounds of possibility that he might win.

True, he probably won’t. And if he does he certainly won’t become prime minister in 2020. But that doesn’t mean we can relax about Corbyn, and what we may soon have to describe as ‘Corbynomics’. From a position of influence, a figure such as Corbyn can drag the whole political debate to the far left...

So the author is soberly warning people that Corbyn is dangerous even though he "certainly won't become PM in 2020?

He is scared of debate? He is scared of a competent socialist being given a platform to speak and ask questions in the House of Commons?

Why would anybody be scared of having an open debate with a person whose views are supposedly ridiculous? The only reason to be scared of open debate is if you fear you might lose it!

I think there are some people on the right of British politics (tories, not Blairites) who are no longer quite so certain that Corbyn can't win in 2020. That's why they think "Corbynomics" needs to be nipped in the bud.

He has suggested a 7% rise in national insurance contributions for those earning more than £50,000 a year and a 2% rise in corporation tax. That would be a huge tax rise on people on relatively modest incomes – if you have a family to support, £50,000 hardly makes you Roman Abramovich.

"I mean...how can one afford a private education for one's children on £50,000?"

Next, he has proposed a “People’s QE” (who the last round of quantitative easing was for exactly, if not the “people”, is not quite clear).

Err....it's crystal clear. It was for the banks, and those who own plenty of property and shares.

The government, and business, must patiently take the time to explain why the ideas pushed out by the likes of Corbyn are dangerous. Otherwise they will end up part of the mainstream debate...

"You mean...we are actually going to have to defend our right wing policies in an actual debate that people actually take notice of? Oh F--k!"

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 03 Aug 2015, 00:02

If Corbyn wins then Labour will lose more seats in the next General Election.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 03 Aug 2015, 00:33

johnhemming2 wrote:If Corbyn wins then Labour will lose more seats in the next General Election.

So says a signed up member of the centre-right establishment who yesterday told me it was hard to predict the results of general elections.

I think you are wrong.

I also suspect you don't want Corbyn to become leader of the Labour party for very similar reasons as the author of that Moneyweek article.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 03 Aug 2015, 02:33

I'll bet the "Tories for Corbyn" campaign has gone a bit quiet....