Greece Watch...

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 12 Jul 2015, 08:18

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... is-tsipras

Greece nears euro exit as bailout talks break up without agreement

Last-ditch negotiations to resume on Sunday after Eurozone’s fiscal hawks put up fierce resistance to Alexis Tsipras’s rescue plan.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 12 Jul 2015, 09:36

What I like about the internet is that it is possible without too much effort to find the original source documents for current issues.

In the Guardian article the word "and" is used when really it should be the word "or".

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/stat ... 92/photo/1

But the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, dismissed that view, supported by a number of northern and eastern European states. “These proposals cannot build the basis for a completely new, three-year [bailout] programme, as requested by Greece,” said a German finance ministry paper. It called for Greece to be expelled from the eurozone for a minimum of five years and demanded that the Greek government transfer €50bn of state assets to an outside agency for sell-off.

The German paper actually proposes two alternatives one remaining within the Euro and the other leaving the Euro.

The telegraph. although the initial into to their article is slightly misleading manages to report this accurately.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ement.html

The maths on this is if Slovakia, Finland, Germany, Holland etc refuse to participate it would actually mean Italy and France paying the others what Greece is due to pay them. Hence my guess is that the German alternative of asking Greece to offer a better deal (and to implement some of the things they have refused to implement) will initially take precedence.]

Greece may need to start producing governmental IOUs, however, as things get tighter and tighter.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 12 Jul 2015, 10:03

http://biffvernon.org.uk/docs/9thJuly2015Bolivia.pdf

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 12 Jul 2015, 10:17

Although (unsurprisingly) I am not a believer in papal infallibility. I do agree with Pope Francis that the Greeks should have voted yes.

http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/20 ... or-greece/

In voting no they enabled the hawks in the EZ to say that the Greek population were in support of their government in refusing to compromise and, therefore,
they and their populations are justified in refusing to compromise. Without that there could have been an argument that they should not allow the greek people to suffer for the stupidity of their government.

At the moment the Teutons, the Balts, Uralics and some of the Slavs appear to be hawkish.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 12 Jul 2015, 12:15

A tale of hope.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 82975.html

We can all get by quite well without banks - Ireland managed to survive without them

A 1970 strike in Ireland provoked an admirable outbreak of ingenuity - Greece should take note.

It would be romantic to imagine that a home-grown people’s banking system would grow up to replace commercial banks, but the Irish experience does show that the disaster that follows a bank shutdown is not total.

In the event, Irish bankers turned out, when the financial crash came in 2008, to be far more irresponsible than those who wrote cheques on beer mats in 1970.

peaceful_life · Post by **peaceful_life** » 12 Jul 2015, 13:21

johnhemming2 wrote:
biffvernon wrote:
peaceful_life wrote: This isn't about money.
It's about caring.

http://time.com/3952885/pope-francis-bo ... ranscript/
Finance is all about the allocation of resources. If you wish to care about people and do something about it you need to have the resources to do this.

It remains, however, that people are free to send all of their spare resources/cash to Greece.

I accept that resources are about more than money. For example at the moment I have an old elecronic keyboard I bought in the 1990s (the one I use for gigging is one I bought in about 2003). Rather than waste it I would like to give it away to someone as it still works. There is no sense selling it We send a lot of things to freecycle.

'Finance is all about the allocation of resources'

No, it isn't, finance is nothing more than a conceptual instrument of self service, it has nothing to do with a true economy and tries to justify it's existence cloaked in layers of abstractions. Finance is rooted in the debt tool of control, only in that context does it apply to the Greek/global situation.

Neither does money have anything to do with so called 'resources', in fact.....it's not entirely clear that you have a handle on just what money is.

Anyway...all of that is besides the original point that Greece cannot pay these debts by means of yet more debts and given your open understanding of constrained trade...it should be obvious that it's ridicules to suggest that it can.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 12 Jul 2015, 14:35

johnhemming2 wrote:Although (unsurprisingly) I am not a believer in papal infallibility. I do agree with Pope Francis that the Greeks should have voted yes.

That is NOT what the Pope said. It was the Autocephalous Orthodox Church of Greece, Archbishop Ieronymos II, who urged the people to vote “yes”.

There doesn't seem to be much overlap between your thinking, John, and the Pope's.
http://biffvernon.org.uk/docs/9thJuly2015Bolivia.pdf

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 12 Jul 2015, 17:43

biffvernon wrote:That is NOT what the Pope said. It was the Autocephalous Orthodox Church of Greece, Archbishop Ieronymos II, who urged the people to vote “yes”.

Fair point. I am, however, not going to research as to what he stated in respect of the referendum.

Speaking as someone who has been involved in allocating resources for a local authority, I would make it clear that this was done by making decisions as to the amount of money taken from people as tax and the amounts spent on various priorities. Hence it is clear that this was a financial system of control.

I am not claiming that the system we have is perfect. I am working, for example, with the Trussell Trust to identify exactly what parts of the system are causing problems for people that result in unplanned destitution.

However, it really is incontrovertible that financial issues are about the allocation of resources.

Obviously it would be possible to invent different systems, but they are almost all likely to have some use of money.

Furthermore whatever is proposed by politicians needs to operate in a practical manner. It is no use having all sorts of nebulous ideas as to potential systems for operating the interplay between people and resources, but for anything to be taken seriously the proposals have to be practical and possible.

I am not going to try to analyse all of the Pope's article, but

once greed for money presides over the entire socioeconomic system, it ruins society

is the sort of thing I agree with. Money is a tool for managing the interrelationships between people and resources, but is not the objective. What we need is a better world in part for people, but also taking into account to some extent other creatures and the wider environment.

I support a generally free market approach with regulation because that historically achieves the best outcomes. Regulation for various reasons is important. The market cannot be seen as a god. It should serve people.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jul 2015, 22:41

Greece crisis: Europe turns the screw

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-bl ... #more-4145

The Greeks arrived with a set of proposals widely scorned as “more austere than the ones they rejected”. The internet burst forth with catcalls – “they’ve caved in”.

By doing so, however, the Greeks last night revealed the true dysfunctionality of the system they are trying to stay inside.

First, Germany put forward a proposal one could best describe as “back of envelope” for Greece to leave the Eurozone for five years. There is logic to it – because Germany was signalling that only outside the Eurozone could Greece’s debts be written off.

But for the most powerful Eurozone nation to arrive with an unspecified, two-paragraph “suggestion” at this stage explains why the Italians, according to the Guardian, are about to blast them with both barrels for lack of leadership.

Then came the Finns. Their government is a coalition of centre right parties and the right-wing populist Finns Party. The latter threatened to collapse the new governing coalition if the Finns take part in a new bailout for Greece.

The demand is now that the Greeks pass all the laws they signed up to in advance of any new bailout deal. This is backed up by a threat to keep the Greek banks starved of liquidity from the ECB for another week.
‘Political chaos’

In Greece large numbers of people – on all sides of politics – believe the Europeans are trying to force the elected government to resign before a deal is concluded. If so there will be political chaos.

Syriza’s poll rating is currently 38 per cent and rising. Without a “moderate” split from Syriza the centrist parties have no chance of forming a new government, and without Tsipras’ tacit consent there can be no interim government of unelected technocrats.

On Friday I reported, on the basis of intelligence being supplied to large corporations, that the key supply concerns are gas – because of the need for forward contracts – disposables in the healthcare system, and meat imports.

The screw Europe is turning on its own supposed member state now begins to resemble a sanctions regime. Without more liquidity the banks will run out of money some time this week.

To be clear, it is Europe that is in charge of the Greek banking system, not Greece. Yet after last night what many in Greece and elsewhere see is that Europe has no single understanding of what it’s trying to achieve through this enforced destruction of a modern economy.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jul 2015, 22:47

Paul Krugman

Killing the European Project

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/0 ... =auto&_r=1

Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.

Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.

Can anything pull Europe back from the brink? Word is that Mario Draghi is trying to reintroduce some sanity, that Hollande is finally showing a bit of the pushback against German morality-play economics that he so signally failed to supply in the past. But much of the damage has already been done. Who will ever trust Germany’s good intentions after this?

In a way, the economics have almost become secondary. But still, let’s be clear: what we’ve learned these past couple of weeks is that being a member of the eurozone means that the creditors can destroy your economy if you step out of line. This has no bearing at all on the underlying economics of austerity. It’s as true as ever that imposing harsh austerity without debt relief is a doomed policy no matter how willing the country is to accept suffering. And this in turn means that even a complete Greek capitulation would be a dead end.

Can Greece pull off a successful exit? Will Germany try to block a recovery? (Sorry, but that’s the kind of thing we must now ask.)

The European project — a project I have always praised and supported — has just been dealt a terrible, perhaps fatal blow. And whatever you think of Syriza, or Greece, it wasn’t the Greeks who did it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jul 2015, 23:14

Spiegel Online

(Translated from original German with Google Chrome)

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sozial ... 43306.html

Proposals of the Euro Group: The catalog of atrocities

A decision there in Brussels not yet - but for a position paper of the euro zone finance ministers. It reads like a deliberate humiliation of Greece.

Little Time? At the end of the text there's a summary.

14 hours has discussed the Euro Group: What conditions must meet the Greek government to ensure that negotiations on a third aid program of 85 billion euros will be added? On the four sides of euro zone finance ministers have formulated their demands - the paper reads, as if to prevent an agreement at any price.

The paper is divided into three parts:

First measures are listed that must get passed already to next Wednesday in parliament, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, in order to restore confidence .

Second, it follows a series of demands, which must meet the Greek government before any negotiations on the applied to the euro rescue fund ESM billion program can be recorded.

In the third part of the euro zone finance ministers listen to the financial needs of Greece for those three years, the program lasts. They also answer the question of how to deal with the debt of the country.
Basic requirement, it says right at the beginning, was the restoration of confidence in the Greek government. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should definitely stay at an ESM program on board. The first measures should therefore be already cast to 15 July in the form of laws.

These include the controversial reform of value added tax and the pension system . Furthermore, the judicial system must be reformed, the Greek statistics office Elstat completely independent and "relevant provisions" of the Stability and Growth Pact will be implemented the European Economic and Monetary Union. The European Banking Directive BRRD to adopt the Greek Parliament immediately.

These are the measures that the Greek Parliament of the Euro Group to view until July 15, has to adopt - mind you: once only to produce lost confidence again.

The Greek Government shall then also address the following points until July 20 before negotiations start: Because the economy has slumped again in recent weeks, and the reform and adaptation measures should be intensified . So to find a way to compensate the court ruling on the pension reform of 2012 Greece. Even details such as the demand for a Sunday opening of shops can be found in the passage about the opening of product markets. In addition, the privatization of the Greek electricity grid operator Admie should be promoted.

The labor market reforms get a separate indent - there should Syriza as the campaign promises to abolish the controversial house collective agreements, withdraw. Overall, Greece should be orientated to best international and European practice. Even the financial sector to clean up and strengthen the government in Athens
In addition, and this is new, the euro zone finance ministers call for a whole range of other measures. For example, more privatizations : You can do this either on your own - or they have to implement the German proposal, state-owned bring trust fund worth 50 billion euros in a way to privatize. This proposal is in square brackets, an agreement did not exist in the Euro Group about so.

Until July 20, the Greek government should present a proposal (in consultation with the institutions), as she wants to strengthen and modernize the country's administration. Therein it should be a concern, as the administrative costs can be reduced.

The following passage reads quite as if the Troika back: The government in Athens is to be re-discussed and some of the necessary work for the implementation and monitoring of the various program components with the institutions. These include the vote on each of the relevant law before it is introduced into Parliament.

All these points are therefore "minimum requirements" in order to begin negotiations. In plain English: This does not mean that is the end of the process really gives an ESM loan.

In the third part deals with the financial requirements: The Euro Group "takes note" that the Greek financing needs for the next three years - and thus the scope of a new program - 82-86 billion euros is. That would be far more than previously thought.

The finance ministers call on the institutions but on to reduce this sum - through increased privatization receipts, for example, or savings elsewhere. An agreement must quickly ago, it said, because Greece need until July 20, seven billion euros until mid-August, another five billion euros, and the final installment of the IMF should be paid quickly.

On the subject of sovereign debt on the Euro Group writes: "There are serious concerns about the sustainability of Greek debt." For the relaxed measures the past twelve months were responsible.

In brackets - no consensus in the euro group so - follows a passage about a possible restructuring of Greek debt: As part of a possible ESM program, the Euro Group is willing "if necessary, to consider possible additional measures, Greece debt service to flatten further "- ie a stretch of repayments . But that would, according to the text only if all final measures were implemented and the Greek government with the institutions find a new regime. And: "The Euro Group emphasized that a haircut is not possible. "

The last paragraph - also in square brackets - attacks the Schäuble plan from Grexit on time again. If no agreement is reached, it is said, should Greece swift negotiations on a break from the euro zone are offered, with a possible debt restructuring.

Summary: The Euro Group has written down what the Greeks have to do so that negotiations on a third program to be recorded. The demands go much further than anything previously an option. Premier Tsipras likely find it difficult to enforce the conditions in his Parliament.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Jul 2015, 07:24

I can't see the Greeks accepting this. Exit now seems unavoidable.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 13 Jul 2015, 08:06

Donald Tusk ✔@eucopresident
EuroSummit has unanimously reached agreement. All ready to go for ESM programme for #Greece with serious reforms & financial support
7:55 AM - 13 Jul 2015

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Jul 2015, 09:20

It remains to be seen whether the Greek parliament approves it and, if even they do, whether the Greek people will actually stomach it.

Greece should have walked.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 13 Jul 2015, 09:26

The Indiana House of Representatives passed a bill to change the value of Pi. This failed in their senate, but really democracy cannot change the laws of mathematics.

The Greeks should have stuck with their original deal and complied with the terms in it. The would not have has so many problems had they done so.