Greece Watch...

[biffvernon]

Nice piece on Yanis from Suzanne Moore:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... e-minister

[biffvernon]

“could it be that all the financial circus that we are seeing dancing in and around Greece is just the effect of much deeper causes? The effect of something that gnaws at the very foundations not only of Greece, but of the whole Western World?".......

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015- ... -to-growth

Yes, nice piece. I was telling somebody a couple of days ago who thought the peak oil idea had died so must have been wrong, to go look at Greece where the sharp end of the long descent was pretty evident.

[3rdRock]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... referendum

Eurozone struggles to find joint response to Greek referendum

Heads of governments at odds as Germany and European commission let Greece stew while France, Italy and Spain are impatient for a deal.

Well, it would seem that Tsipras and his colleagues have really let the cat out of the bag today.

Solidarity amongst the main protagonists of the Eurozone is obviously more fragile than we were all led to believe.

[johnhemming2]

I was telling somebody a couple of days ago who thought the peak oil idea had died so must have been wrong, to go look at Greece where the sharp end of the long descent was pretty evident.

Greece is about a failure to manage a country properly. Although one of the causes of the worldwide financial crisis was a growth in oil prices because of the peak of conventional production, Greece is all about incompetent politicians.

[Tarrel]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... referendum

Eurozone struggles to find joint response to Greek referendum

Heads of governments at odds as Germany and European commission let Greece stew while France, Italy and Spain are impatient for a deal.

Well, it would seem that Tsipras and his colleagues have really let the cat out of the bag today.

Solidarity amongst the main protagonists of the Eurozone is obviously more fragile than we were all led to believe.

I think this illustrates a systemic problem with the EU; that national representatives in the various EU institutions ultimately act in their nation's self-interest. Understandable, given they have an electorate to answer to back home. Germany has a very lucrative status quo to protect. France, Spain, Italy, etc. have radical left and right wing parties breathing down their necks and wonder whether they might be the next Greece.

I think a simplified structure in the EU, hopefully with greater legitimacy, would help. I've lost count of how many presidents there are in the EU!

[biffvernon]

I was telling somebody a couple of days ago who thought the peak oil idea had died so must have been wrong, to go look at Greece where the sharp end of the long descent was pretty evident.

Greece is about a failure to manage a country properly. Although one of the causes of the worldwide financial crisis was a growth in oil prices because of the peak of conventional production, Greece is all about incompetent politicians.

The Greek problem's proximal cause maybe incompetent politicians, (and the incompetence may be outside Greece as well as, or more than, inside) the long descent following peak oil will pick off the weakest first. Demand destruction is not evenly or equably distributed; corporate capitalism sees to that.

[UndercoverElephant]

I was telling somebody a couple of days ago who thought the peak oil idea had died so must have been wrong, to go look at Greece where the sharp end of the long descent was pretty evident.

Greece is about a failure to manage a country properly. Although one of the causes of the worldwide financial crisis was a growth in oil prices because of the peak of conventional production, Greece is all about incompetent politicians.

Ah, so anybody who has the temerity to stand up to the bastards who are running the show in the interests of the wealthy and at the expense of everybody and everything else, is incompetent. I see.

Why don't you just join the Conservative party? I get the impression you'd be quite at home there.

[biffvernon]

Although one of the causes of the worldwide financial crisis was a growth in oil prices because of the peak of conventional production...

And there's quite a lot wrong with that part.

Price is a symptom not a cause. The cause is the lack of oil that can be extracted at a cost that can be afforded by the economy. We currently have comparatively low prices yet demand has to be constrained to meet supply. A country with ruinously high unemployment means a lot of people sitting about not burning oil. That's the colour of demand destruction.

[3rdRock]

Great article in the Guardian by Yanis Varoufakis.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ism-europe

The Global Minotaur of neoliberal capitalism centred on Wall Street held the world to ransom from 1971 to 2008. Now Europe’s surplus countries are trying to prop up its corpse

The article is an extract from Yanis Varoufakis’s book 'The Global Minotaur: America, Europe and the Future of the Global Economy'.

See: http://www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/the ... minotaur-0

A similarly titled book from Yanis is currently available for Kindle fans.

Free from DODGY TAX AVOIDERS, see: http://www.DODGY TAX AVOIDERS.co.uk/Europe-after-Mi ... ords=yanis

[johnhemming2]

It doesn't change my view about him. If the Eurozone gives into the Greek pressure then the Euro will die. Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland will all argue for debt relief and parties such as Sinn Fein, 5 Star and Podemos will promote that thesis.

[Little John]

"Greece creditors will gain nothing from toppling Europe-lover Yanis Varoufakis"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... fakis.html

If lenders think Varoufakis's touted successor will be a pushover, they are set to be disappointed. He shares little of his predecessor's European idealism.....

.... "I wish we had the drachma, and we'd never entered monetary union. But once you are in, you don’t get out without a catastrophe,” he (Varoufakis) said in May....

...But separating his multiple characters as a Keynesian professor, Game Theory tactician, street fighter, rap star, and finance minister, was never easy. Deep down - despite his furious outbursts - he was never really willing to confront the European Central Bank head-on....

The hardline wing of the Syriza movement has been pushing for a temporary take-over of the Bank of Greece under emergency powers in order to issue liquidity - accompanied by a lawsuit at the European Court of Justice to throw the whole EU ruling system off balance - but Mr Varoufakis recoiled, deeming it too incendiary even for him. At heart, he is an admirer of Mario Draghi. ....

....It appears that Euclid Tsakalotos will take over as finance minister....

....If the creditors think that he will be a push-over - more willing to accept terms that fall short of genuine debt relief - they are likely to be disappointed. He is comes from the radical Marxist wing of Syriza, and shares little of Mr Varoufakis's European idealism......

....The difference is that Mr Varoufakis once loved 'Europe', and still cannot stop loving it. Mr Tsakalotos was never a believer in the first place.

[biffvernon]

Yanis Varoufakis’s book 'The Global Minotaur: America, Europe and the Future of the Global Economy'.

See: http://www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/the ... minotaur-0

This is the third, newly revised, edition of his book, first pubished in 2011 but now updated and republished last week.
It should be compulsory reading for anybody intending to say anything about Greece and economics in general.

[clv101]

It doesn't change my view about him. If the Eurozone gives into the Greek pressure then the Euro will die. Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland will all argue for debt relief and parties such as Sinn Fein, 5 Star and Podemos will promote that thesis.

That may well be how the situation plays out - but it doesn't follow that the alternative is the right decision. I don't see that there is an 'acceptable' way out of this mess and find it hard to argue strongly for what might be the marginally better of several bad options.

Personally I think conventional growth is over (bar the noise) in Europe. Sure, the UK might post +1,2,3% for a few years, but that'll be counted by greater negative growth in other areas... What we need is a political/economic solution to manage the decline of post-industrial economies. Without a wise plan that decline is likely to be grossly unevenly distributed (with the very wealthy and the poor extending their situations) and end badly.

Attempting to maintain the status quo, business as usual against this background, is likely to make the situation worse than it needs to be. I suspect the sooner we, as a continent, recognise the next 20 years are going to be nothing like the last 20 years the better for all of us. Germany, the ECB and others have not yet recognised this changing landscape.

[Tarrel]

It doesn't change my view about him. If the Eurozone gives into the Greek pressure then the Euro will die. Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland will all argue for debt relief and parties such as Sinn Fein, 5 Star and Podemos will promote that thesis.

That may well be how the situation plays out - but it doesn't follow that the alternative is the right decision. I don't see that there is an 'acceptable' way out of this mess and find it hard to argue strongly for what might be the marginally better of several bad options.

Personally I think conventional growth is over (bar the noise) in Europe. Sure, the UK might post +1,2,3% for a few years, but that'll be counted by greater negative growth in other areas... What we need is a political/economic solution to manage the decline of post-industrial economies. Without a wise plan that decline is likely to be grossly unevenly distributed (with the very wealthy and the poor extending their situations) and end badly.

Attempting to maintain the status quo, business as usual against this background, is likely to make the situation worse than it needs to be. I suspect the sooner we, as a continent, recognise the next 20 years are going to be nothing like the last 20 years the better for all of us. Germany, the ECB and others have not yet recognised this changing landscape.

Neither has the UK.

[Little John]

The rich elites in these countries have, arguably, recognised it. But, are simply prepared to do whatever it takes to ensure they do not lose any of their ground. Even if that means the retirement of democracy, the crushing of the ordinary citizen and the rebirth of a new, far-right hegemony across Europe and beyond.