Greece Watch...

[johnhemming]

I don't think it was inevitable. It is in recent years unique that an illiquid and insolvent government has refused assistance because of the conditions attached.

It does make it easy to cut pensions, however, they will be paid in a lower value fiat currency.

I do think there will be some need for humanitarian aid.

[johnhemming]

For the ordinary greek citizens who won't be able to buy medicine etc.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't think it was inevitable. It is in recent years unique that an illiquid and insolvent government has refused assistance because of the conditions attached.

But this example is unique precisely because Greece is a eurozone country. They've "refused assistance" because the conditions attached are wholly unacceptable. The Greek finance minister has explained it very clearly indeed: the conditions attached to further assistance do not offer the Greek people any hope. They are just more of the same policies that have already failed to lead to a long-term solution.

The only way this was not inevitable would be if the Germans accepted that being part of a european superstate entails providing long-term financial assistance to the poorest parts of that superstate, just like London has to accept that if it is going to be part of the same nation as Liverpool and Cornwall, it will have to subsidise those places.

I think the Greeks have no choice but to follow the course they have followed. The Germans have another choice, but it does not look like they are going to change their minds.

[johnhemming]

The Greeks can stop early retirement. No other country does it. There is no human right that states you can retire at 50.

[3rdRock]

I don't think it was inevitable. It is in recent years unique that an illiquid and insolvent government has refused assistance because of the conditions attached.

But this example is unique precisely because Greece is a eurozone country. They've "refused assistance" because the conditions attached are wholly unacceptable. The Greek finance minister has explained it very clearly indeed: the conditions attached to further assistance do not offer the Greek people any hope. They are just more of the same policies that have already failed to lead to a long-term solution.

The only way this was not inevitable would be if the Germans accepted that being part of a european superstate entails providing long-term financial assistance to the poorest parts of that superstate, just like London has to accept that if it is going to be part of the same nation as Liverpool and Cornwall, it will have to subsidise those places.

I think the Greeks have no choice but to follow the course they have followed. The Germans have another choice, but it does not look like they are going to change their minds.

+1. Succinctly put.

Latest: http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... ilout-live

Even before Tuesday when Greece’s bailout programme expires, another deadline is coming towards Alexis Tsipras’s government like an express train.

The end of the month is fast approaching, and with it the payment of wages and pensions.

That – and not the bailout expiry – could trigger the closure of the banks and the shutting down of their cash machines, the daily Ta Nea reported today. It said the government was hoping the central bank would transfer €1.5bn to keep people from leaving bank counters and ATMs empty-handed.

But what no one knows is whether – with or without the support of the ECB -- the Bank of Greece has the money to transfer. If not, then the banks may well be shut tomorrow as they prepare for restrictions on depositor withdrawals.

[Little John]

The Greeks can stop early retirement. No other country does it. There is no human right that states you can retire at 50.

And many of those pensions are all that stands between a roof and the street for entire Greek families who are without work. The Greek government has not refused to accept that major reformation of their pension system is required. What they have refused to accept is the rate of reformation right now at a time when those pensions are, as I said, supporting several generations below them.

[Little John]

.....The only way this was not inevitable would be if the Germans accepted that being part of a european superstate entails providing long-term financial assistance to the poorest parts of that superstate, just like London has to accept that if it is going to be part of the same nation as Liverpool and Cornwall, it will have to subsidise those places.

I think the Greeks have no choice but to follow the course they have followed. The Germans have another choice, but it does not look like they are going to change their minds.

Precisely so.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Greece needs to get out of the eurozone, and re-launch its own currency, and allow it to float freely against the euro. The result will be short-term chaos and massive political implications for the whole euro-project, but I think in the end it will be better for Greece.

The reason this impasse has got so bad is because a lot of people - both inside Greece and outside it - have resisted accepting that the Grand European Project as currently understood may have fatal design flaws. If/when Greece bombs out of the Eurozone then those questions can't be avoided any longer. People are going to want to know what, if anything, is going to be done to prevent exactly the same thing eventually happening to other indebted peripheral eurozone countries.

IMO this problem combined with the UK's attempt to renegotiate its relationship with Europe, and quite possibly an "out" result in the referendum unless serious reform is offered, opens up a very real possibility of the eurozone fragmenting further, and even brings the breakup of the EU into the realm of "not impossible".

[johnhemming]

>And many of those pensions are all that stands between a roof and the street for entire Greek families who are without work.
I don't think anyone is opposing having a system of means tested support of some form. However, having a scheme that pays a large number of 50-60 year olds because some of them are supporting other people is not justifiable.

[johnhemming]

>if the Germans accepted that being part of a european superstate entails providing long-term financial assistance to the poorest parts of that superstate
However, the EU does provide such support. The Greeks get around EUR 4bn
pa (more than the interest on the debt),

[PS_RalphW]

BBC is reporting that the Greek banks will receive no more cash to cover withdrawals and will be forced to close tomorrow. Greek prime minister is calling it the end of the Euro.

Greek referendum looks irrelevant. They will be in default and effectively out of the Euro by then.

I can't see any compromise at this stage.

[johnhemming]

My family background is skilled working class. I was on the dole in 1981 for a while and had the highest level of means tested support whilst I was at university.

I don't personally think not being allowed to retire at 50 is such an awful proposal that it had to be rejected.

[johnhemming]

>Greek referendum looks irrelevant. They will be in default and effectively out of the Euro by then.
Just being in default does not mean they are out of the Euro. Their government can change its mind and accept a bailout. Obviously if the referendum votes against a bailout the government is not likely to change position.

Obviously some Greek organisations have bank accounts outside Greece and can continue to trade on that basis.

[DN65AF]

The Greeks should simply start quite literally printing euros and nationalise the Greek central bank at the same time
If the ECB won't in effect print Euros for them - then the Greeks can do it themselves.
Illegal under EU rules - certainly: but what is Germany going to do - invade them?

Of course if Greece really does 'collapse' we will see border controls of any form cease so it will be open season for any illegals/jihadi's etc to get into Europe....that thought should focus the EU's mind.

As others have said and to be fair even the Euro's architect Delors has stated you cannot have a single currency union without a high degree of fiscal union and indeed political union so that just as in the UK the richer parts have to continually subsidise the poorer parts with no repayment ever expected, while also exercising a degree of political control over the activities of the poorer parts.
The problem was that fiscal union never followed the Euro's creation becasue - well it was never going to happen was it...

[vtsnowedin]

My family background is skilled working class. I was on the dole in 1981 for a while and had the highest level of means tested support whilst I was at university.

I don't personally think not being allowed to retire at 50 is such an awful proposal that it had to be rejected.

Retiring at 50 is quite doable if ,and only if, You and your employer have paid in enough to a fund that is well managed. Of course retiring at that age means you will be drawing benefits that much longer so your payout is that much less. In my case I had 30 years in the system and they had deducted 6% from my pretax pay (about $90,000 over the years) and the state government I worked for kicks in what ever the fund doesn't make in investment income. Because I was just 51 I took a 27% cut from what I could have drawn if I continued working to age 60.
Now if the Greek retirees get cut back to what can be supported by what they paid in there should be no problem. But of course the real problem is that none paid in anywhere near enough money into the retirement funds and there was little if any investment income.
Settle it up today and the country is bankrupt and there will be zero future checks for the retirees.