Greece Watch...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Jun 2015, 17:07

https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/0 ... ve-qe.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-2 ... ive-easing

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/n ... ve-with-it

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... blitz.html

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-a ... etter-late

The various countries in the EU have propped up their failed banking systems, in turn requiring money from the ECB to cover the holes in their balance sheets. You may say they did not have to do this, but, of course they did, since their elites are all in the same capitalist boat and if one of them jumps ship, then the whole lot could sink. One of the notable exceptions was Iceland which, as I recall, had all manner of dark predictions and, even, threats made against it by the EU and USA. Nevertheless, they at least in part left their banks fail and consequently have begun to recover far more quickly than many of their counterparts.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Jun 2015, 17:10

And where does it say that QE increases the deficit? Recapitalising the banks does in the relevant year increase the deficit or at least the funding requirement, but that is ignored when the IMF look at the figures.

Since I posted this more links have been provided. I have looked at two.
I see no argument that substantiates your original thesis.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Jun 2015, 17:18

johnhemming wrote:And where does it say that QE increases the deficit? Recapitalising the banks does in the relevant year increase the deficit or at least the funding requirement, but that is ignored when the IMF look at the figures.

Since I posted this more links have been provided. I have looked at two.
I see no argument that substantiates your original thesis.

It is the reason why those countries can carry on with unsustainable debts. Without it, they could not. However, the price that must then be paid by all citizens is socially and politically unsustainable. The debt must be extinguished. The debt should be extinguished since most of it was based on a rapaciously greedy banking system's expectation of jam tomorrow that will never come. The house of cards must fall.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Jun 2015, 17:25

That is not what the articles you link to say. It is something you assert yourself without evidence or a clear thread of reasoning.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 26 Jun 2015, 18:02

A basic income is a fairly well-known and uncontroversial idea.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Jun 2015, 19:51

The idea of a basic income from a financial perspective is built into universal credit, but UC expects people who can do to work.

I don't think society as a whole can afford to pay large numbers of 20 year olds to sit around and play computer games all day.

That, of course, is an extension from the greek position of allowing 50 year olds to live without being expected to work.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 26 Jun 2015, 20:18

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33290361

Athens rejects five-month bailout extension

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Jun 2015, 21:45

Greece was actually making a bit of progress before these idiots were elected. They could, I suppose, sell a few islands to the germans.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Jun 2015, 22:38

https://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s9936.pdf

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Jun 2015, 22:45

You need to say where the support for your position is.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 27 Jun 2015, 08:03

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33296839

Tsipras announces bailout referendum

Greece will hold a referendum on 5 July on a controversial bailout deal with foreign creditors, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has announced.

In a televised address, he described the plan as "humiliation" and condemned "unbearable" austerity measures demanded by creditors.

The Greek government earlier rejected the proposals, aimed at avoiding the country defaulting on its debt.

Post by **adam2** » 27 Jun 2015, 08:20

So is a default now unavoidable ?
As a referendum is to be held on the latest proposals, this must take at least a few days to organise. The printing of ballot papers, choosing of polling stations and appointing persons to ensure that it all goes smoothly, and then counting the papers, all takes time. If approached with speed and efficiency a week seems about the minimum, perhaps a month might be more realistic.
Although the referendum is planned for July 5, this seems a bit optimistic in a country not noted for speed and efficiency. Expect some legal wrangling over exactly how the question is to be worded, and over exactly whom may vote. Also expect those in charge of actually organising the referendum to go on strike.
But a default is expected on Monday, long before any referendum can be organised.
So will Monday bring a default ? and bank closures and capital controls ? or will some fudge or fiddle factor be found to delay it for a bit.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 27 Jun 2015, 08:46

I think strictly default is at midnight on Tuesday.

The big issue for the ECB is that Greece is no longer in a Bailout programme.

If they really had to arrange a referendum they should have done this months ago.

My expectation is for the greek banks to shut at some stage prior to the referendum.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 27 Jun 2015, 11:16

Tangential but pertinent views expressed in some of these letters to the Guardian, but I suppose John doesn't agree with all of them:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... erwhelming

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 27 Jun 2015, 11:23

johnhemming wrote:I think strictly default is at midnight on Tuesday.

The big issue for the ECB is that Greece is no longer in a Bailout programme.

If they really had to arrange a referendum they should have done this months ago.

My expectation is for the greek banks to shut at some stage prior to the referendum.

Perhaps the referendum is a delaying tactic to allow Greece to prepare for the consequences of default.