Arctic Ice Watch

[vtsnowedin]

That comment wasn't meant to be personal, VT, although it came out like that. .

Understood.

[PS_RalphW]

Time for an ice update.

For the last few days the air temperature in the high Arctic has dipped sharply below season's normal, as it has done the last two years at this point in the season, and this has delayed the start of the melt, and the absence of melt ponds on the ice surface increasing albedo has lead to some recovery of the ice volume.

That said, measurements of extent and area are tracking at or near record lows as peripheral ice melts early due to high ocean surface temperatures, particularly on the Pacific side, and in Hudson Bay. Now, very warm air is sweeping in over Alaska and into the Beafort Sea, leading to the sea ice retreating rapidly from the coats and the northern end of the NW passage.

If this weather pattern persists and the (already fragmented) thicker ice in the Beaufort (where the bulk of the volume recovery has occurred), gets melted out as happened in 2012, then we could see very little ice remaining by September.

[vtsnowedin]

Time for an ice update.

For the last few days the air temperature in the high Arctic has dipped sharply below season's normal, as it has done the last two years at this point in the season, and this has delayed the start of the melt, and the absence of melt ponds on the ice surface increasing albedo has lead to some recovery of the ice volume.

That said, measurements of extent and area are tracking at or near record lows as peripheral ice melts early due to high ocean surface temperatures, particularly on the Pacific side, and in Hudson Bay. Now, very warm air is sweeping in over Alaska and into the Beafort Sea, leading to the sea ice retreating rapidly from the coats and the northern end of the NW passage.

If this weather pattern persists and the (already fragmented) thicker ice in the Beaufort (where the bulk of the volume recovery has occurred), gets melted out as happened in 2012, then we could see very little ice remaining by September.

You are trying to make light of the recent downturn in temperatures which is illogical and unscientific but perhaps missing the more significant accumulation of days above normal that occurred in the first 125 days of the year. The recent downturn is significant but does not balance out the relatively warm winter.

[PS_RalphW]

I am not putting value judgements on the observations. I was noting the temperature change which has occurred at the same time for 3 years running. I try to give a balanced view of the weather trends and how they affect the ice.

There is a heat wave in Alaska/North Canada which is moving north over the ice and causing significant melting this week. This is possibly a significant weather event for the ice melt this summer.

[vtsnowedin]

I am not putting value judgements on the observations. I was noting the temperature change which has occurred at the same time for 3 years running. I try to give a balanced view of the weather trends and how they affect the ice.

There is a heat wave in Alaska/North Canada which is moving north over the ice and causing significant melting this week. This is possibly a significant weather event for the ice melt this summer.

It might be significant but only if other regions of the arctic don't balance it out.
I'm not saying there is no change or warming happening. The question is what is the true extent of this change and what "If anything" we can or should do about it?

[biffvernon]

The question is what is the true extent of this change and what "If anything" we can or should do about it?

Arctic ice comes and goes with the weather and one needs to look at the trend over several years before jumping to conclusions. The trend over several years is pretty clear. As for what we should do about it - stop burning fossil carbon.

[kenneal - lagger]

The Arctic ice volume is on a similar trajectory.

The Antarctic ice extent is going the other way, however, but this is because the vast volume of melting ice is reducing the salinity of the ocean so that it freezes at a much higher temperature. Again Antarctic ice volume is reducing.

[vtsnowedin]

stop burning fossil carbon.

And just how do we go about that without committing suicide?
Or genocide to an order of six billion people?

[kenneal - lagger]

I agree it will be difficult but, as the deniers know, we are facing a complete reordering of the economic and manufacturing systems.

The deniers know that the continual manufacture of vast quantities of junk is no longer feasible.

They know that the implications of GW/CC are that we will have to go over to a batch production system of long lasting, essential only items instead of the large scale production of stuff that gets chucked out six months after it has been bought.

They know that we will have to go over to a massive energy use reduction campaign and change to renewables as soon as possible.

They know that we cannot sustain our present level of economic activity on less than our current energy use.

They know that most of the fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground to avoid even the minor consequences of GW/CC.

They know that it is all going to be a massive hit on their pockets which is why they are so anti doing anything at all, even acknowledging that there is a problem.

The Greens are the opposite and acknowledge that there is a huge problem with GW/CC.

They are like the deniers in the respect that they are not acknowledging problems, but their denial is the problems above that the deniers can see.

Until the Greens acknowledge the extent of the economic problem and talk to the Deniers about mitigating strategies we will get nowhere.

Meanwhile we have the deniers plugging TTIP/TPP in order to scupper the chances of any environmental regulation at al so that they can make as much money as they can before the environmental problem bring the whole edifice crashing down. What use they think their money will be after the Great Crash know body knows!!

[biffvernon]

stop burning fossil carbon.

And just how do we go about that without committing suicide?
Or genocide to an order of six billion people?

We know for certain that if we don't stop burning fossil fuels we are definitely on the route to genocide followed by suicide. So your question needs to be re-framed into how do we stop burning fossil fuels quickly whilst doing minimum damage.

The multiply complex answer is embedded in the discussions we've been having here on PowerSwitch (there's a clue in the name) over the last decade. Many of us know that it is entirely possible but also realise that whilst the fossil fuel incumbency holds the reigns of power it's mighty difficult to achieve what otherwise is technically feasible.

[biffvernon]

Why 404 is a bad number: http://biffvernon.blogspot.co.uk/

[clv101]

stop burning fossil carbon.

And just how do we go about that without committing suicide?
Or genocide to an order of six billion people?

Indeed - but we can reduce our fossil fuel burn substantially without any genocide suicide. No one reading these words can honestly say they've reduced their carbon burn as much as possible.

[vtsnowedin]

stop burning fossil carbon.

And just how do we go about that without committing suicide?
Or genocide to an order of six billion people?

Indeed - but we can reduce our fossil fuel burn substantially without any genocide suicide. No one reading these words can honestly say they've reduced their carbon burn as much as possible.

That would depend on how many readers here are in China and India or the rest of South East Asia. While the Americans and Europeans could reduce there fossil fuel burn per capita without causing immediate population loss I don't think the China India SE Asia group with half the words population has much room to improve and will most likely steadily increase per capita fossil fuel consumption just to keep everybody fed.

[biffvernon]

My friend who runs an organic permaculture enterprise in Ghana would claim to demonstrate just how agriculture can produce far more food than it tends to do now, without increasing fossil carbon inputs.

[vtsnowedin]

My friend who runs an organic permaculture enterprise in Ghana would claim to demonstrate just how agriculture can produce far more food than it tends to do now, without increasing fossil carbon inputs.

Claim it and prove it on a realistic scale are two very different things.