Gas storage at Rough cut by 25%

[mikepepler]

This one slipped by quietly... Due to concerns over well integrity at Rough, Centrica Storage have reduced the maximum operating pressure at Rough for six months while they carry out tests. This has effectively cut a quarter off the capacity there.

I've done a write up and a bit of analysis of how this might have affected past years as a guide to the future: http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... ashed.html

[RenewableCandy]

At least they chose the right time of year for it I suppose.

[adam2]

I view this with considerable concern.
Unlikely to be a problem at this time of year, but if the facility can not be filled to full pressure for next winter that could well be a problem.

Even if full pressure filling is allowed in the future, the 6 months delay in fully filling is taking it rather close to the beginning of next winter.

We will probably just about muddle through, as we usually do. but it would not take much in the way of out of course events to provoke a full scale crisis. ANY of the following could do it !

Above normal demand caused by exceptional winter weather.
A series of breakdowns at nuclear plants.*
Any significant disruption to gas imports.
Any major disruption to ELECTRICITY imports.*
Any planned closure of coal burning power plants being brought forward due to breakdowns*

*events like these would in the first instance lead to electricity shortages, these would be countered by long hour use of inefficient OCGT power plants, these use gas at an alarming rate .

And of course the run down in coal burning capacity is continuing.
Wind power helps a lot by reducing the gas burnt for electricity production, but AFAIK not much more wind capacity is expected to be commissioned before next winter.

There is some evidence of a slight economic upturn, this tends to slightly increase both gas consumption, and electricity consumption, with gas being the marginal fuel for producing the extra electricity.

[adam2]

Total gas storage is at present fluctuating around 18% full, which is fairly normal at this time of year.
Had the cut in capacity already taken place, then the reduced level of storage would be empty ! and that after a very average winter without any significant disruption to supplies.

Food for thought perhaps ?

[cubes]

So, buy blankets and some new jumpers in the sales for the winter?

[adam2]

So, buy blankets and some new jumpers in the sales for the winter?

Yes.
I very much doubt that we will see GAS cuts because safe reinstatement afterwards is such a protracted business.
A shortage of gas to fuel power stations is a distinct possibility and could result in rota power cuts.
We will probably muddle through as we usually do, but best to prepare just in case.

We can probably purchase gas on the international market as needed instead of withdrawing from storage, though the price is likely to be higher.
In the event of any disruption to the international gas market, then we would have to out-bid everyone else who wants it.
That could get very expensive indeed.

I doubt that Mr Putin will turn the gas off entirely, Russia badly needs the money.
If however other supplies were short then I would expect Russia to very substantially increase the price.
And of course the pipe from Russia is vulnerable to accidents and to terrorism.

We do not get much gas directly from Russia, but other parts of Europe do and any interruption would lead a general scarcity.

Suggested viewing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4RyhzOEkOw