How high will it go ?
Current Oil Price
Moderator: Peak Moderation
-
AutomaticEarth
- Posts: 823
- Joined: 08 Nov 2010, 00:09
Ex BP boss warning that North Sea producers to slim down or else
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31124888
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31124888
-
AutomaticEarth
- Posts: 823
- Joined: 08 Nov 2010, 00:09
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
-
kenneal - lagger
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14290
- Joined: 20 Sep 2006, 02:35
- Location: Newbury, Berkshire
- Contact:
-
AutomaticEarth
- Posts: 823
- Joined: 08 Nov 2010, 00:09
Guess everyone is not heading back to the stores or the petrol pumps just yet - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31408449
-
kenneal - lagger
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14290
- Joined: 20 Sep 2006, 02:35
- Location: Newbury, Berkshire
- Contact:
http://peakoil.com/production/us-oil-ou ... st-to-2020
Ignore the article, read the comments.
Follow the links to shortonoil's analysis.
not least,
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
The bottom line, is that the rapidly declining EROEI of remaining oil reserves reduces the economic activity that each barrel of oil will support, and puts an upper limit on the price that the economy will pay for that barrel of oil.
That upper limit intersected the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in 2012.
Of course, in the longer term, energy efficiency improves the maximum price, but longer term is decades.
This analysis predicts total deflationary collapse in 8 years.
If the price of oil did follow this profile due to deflationary collapse, no new wells would be drilled anywhere. Ever again.
Oil production would decline at it's 'natural' rate, which is variously estimated at up to 15% a year.
Ouch.
Ignore the article, read the comments.
Follow the links to shortonoil's analysis.
not least,
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
The bottom line, is that the rapidly declining EROEI of remaining oil reserves reduces the economic activity that each barrel of oil will support, and puts an upper limit on the price that the economy will pay for that barrel of oil.
That upper limit intersected the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in 2012.
Of course, in the longer term, energy efficiency improves the maximum price, but longer term is decades.
This analysis predicts total deflationary collapse in 8 years.
If the price of oil did follow this profile due to deflationary collapse, no new wells would be drilled anywhere. Ever again.
Oil production would decline at it's 'natural' rate, which is variously estimated at up to 15% a year.
Ouch.
-
AutomaticEarth
- Posts: 823
- Joined: 08 Nov 2010, 00:09
Interesting links - thanks.
]
Good points made in the analysis. The same point has been made in another thread on the site:
http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=71020
Guess we wont be putting it in ourfuel tanks after the next 5 years......
]
Good points made in the analysis. The same point has been made in another thread on the site:
http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=71020
Guess we wont be putting it in ourfuel tanks after the next 5 years......
-
emordnilap
- Posts: 14815
- Joined: 05 Sep 2007, 16:36
- Location: here