Current Oil Price

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 13 Dec 2014, 14:08

Like all things the Disco is getting more complicated. Mine has ABS instead of the diff lock that my old one had and I'm not sure that I like that. So to go to an auto box would be a complication too far. I do buy second hand though so it will be quite a time before this new one comes into my price range.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 13 Dec 2014, 14:11

Potemkin Villager wrote: Key facts

Five-seater; from €55,120 (including VAT); delivery, related charges extra; 3-litre V6 (2,993cc) diesel 210bhp; 4x4; 207g/km; torque 520Nm, maximum torque between 1,500 – 2,500rpm; towing capacity 3,500kg; air suspension.

No, the key fact is that this device burns fossil carbon and is therefore part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 13 Dec 2014, 16:43

I've got an old one with a broken engine that I was thinking of putting electric motors and batteries onto. One day!!

Meanwhile I only use it when I either need a 4WD, I have to tow a trailer or I haven't got access to my wife's car.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 13 Dec 2014, 20:39

I'm on my fifth one. I justify it on the basis that:
1. I have significantly reduced my annual mileage since our lifestyle change (over 50%)
2. It is a very versatile machine (IMO, more so than a pickup truck). It will happily potter about in the wood; it's great at hauling stuff (I can get 8' planks of wood in the back); it will carry seven people; it's brilliant for camping, which we do a lot of for recreation; it drives safely in dodgy weather, which we get a lot of here in the winter. It's the "Swiss Army Knife" of vehicles.
3. It's second-hand.

But, it will be my last, because:
1. As Ken said, they're getting too complicated
2. The current model is unnecessarily heavy, which can cause issues on poor ground and also creates an unnecessary fuel consumption burden
3. The Land Rover brand is going too upmarket, which has an impact on parts, servicing and the whole aftercare budget (plus, see Point 1).
4. There are cheaper alternatives that perform as well, if not better.
5. We have further rationalised our situation so it is no longer required.

Next summer, when the extended warranty runs out, I'll be replacing it with a Dacia Duster. Dacia is a Romanian brand, but is essentially a Renault. The Dacia is smaller than the Disco, half the weight, with a 1.5 litre engine and half the fuel consumption. Its emissions band means the road tax is a third that of the Discovery. I have a trailer which I can use for the big stuff that needs hauling occasionally. The Dacia has class-leading ground clearance and an excellent 4WD system that can be totally switched off in normal conditions, improving efficiency.

I take Biff's point about fossil fuel usage. Unfortunately the way we live our life and earn our income hasn't allowed us to become fossil fuel-free yet, although that is the ultimate goal. I am, however, content that we are on a downward trajectory. Since moving to Scotland I have halved my fuel consumption. The Dacia will allow me to halve this again. The recent purchase of an electric conversion for my bike will allow me to reduce this by, approximately, a further quarter, by substituting some of the current car-based trips to the woodland with bike-based ones.

For use in the woodland however, the ultimate piece of transportation technology for me has to be...

My wheelbarrow!
- Incredibly versatile
- Easy to maintain
- Kind to the ground when conditions are poor
- Health benefits
- Cheap to buy (in fact, to maximise productivity when we have someone to help, I have two!)

What's not to like?!

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 14 Dec 2014, 17:40

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30468848

Opec boss: Oil price drop will not prompt supply cut

The head of Opec has reiterated that it will not try to shore up plunging oil prices by reducing production.

"The decision has been made. Things will be left as is," said Abdallah Salem el-Badri, secretary general of the oil producers' cartel, speaking in Dubai.

"Some people say this decision was directed at the United States and shale oil. All of this is incorrect. Some also say it was directed at Iran. And Russia. This also is incorrect," he said.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 Dec 2014, 08:24

WTI $55.91 down another couple of dollars. Where will it end?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 16 Dec 2014, 08:51

biffvernon wrote:WTI $55.91 down another couple of dollars. Where will it end?

At these prices demand in India and China should increase and any excess supply will get burned up. It wouldn't take much of a shortage to send prices right back above $115. I'm unsure of the time lag between lower price and consumption increase but would not be surprised if it took six months or so.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 16 Dec 2014, 09:21

vtsnowedin wrote:
biffvernon wrote:WTI $55.91 down another couple of dollars. Where will it end?
At these prices demand in India and China should increase and any excess supply will get burned up.

Should?
There is evidence that China has been doing this for quite some time already

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 16 Dec 2014, 10:44

biffvernon wrote:WTI $55.91 down another couple of dollars. Where will it end?

For a guess from Heading Out:

Without any gain in production, and in fact seeing the potential for a drop in US production over the next year, then the anticipated surplus between oil supply and demand will likely disappear. Remember that the MENA nations are seeing a growth in their internal demand for oil (in the KSA this has already passed 3 mbd) so that if they had no impetus to reduce production and exports in the face of falling prices, so they are unlikely to increase production when prices pick up. (They haven’t before).

When will this all happen? Well I got the size of the price fall wrong, so don’t hold me to the exact timing, but I would anticipate that when we see the start of the driving season next year, the oil market will tighten rather quickly. Following that (given the inertia in getting production back in the US) we will (as I have been expecting for a couple of years) see the global concern over supply start to be a significant factor in 2016.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 16 Dec 2014, 11:18

Another post trying to read the oil market runes, with some numbers.

Let me cut to the chase. The recent crash in crude prices is eminently rational, and should indeed have happened quite a long time ago. No political sub-text is required to explain this slump, which is not to say that there are no such sub-texts as, pretty clearly, there are.

Second, things are likely to get worse – a lot worse – before they get better, and markets are likely to be far more glutted with oil by March than they are now.

Third, though, what we are witnessing is not the dawn of an age of cheap energy.

Peter.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 Dec 2014, 11:30

Predicting the past looks a lot easier than predicting the future.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 Dec 2014, 16:10

Short lived rebound saw Brent go from $59.50 to $63.50 in 24 hours, which is now evaporating again as fast as it arrived. Back below $61.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 18 Dec 2014, 18:32

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30531829

Recent falls in the price of oil are likely to be temporary, says the oil minister for Saudi Arabia, Opec's biggest producing nation

Ali al-Naimi said commodity price fluctuations were to be expected and said he was hopeful for the future.

He added it was "difficult, or even impossible, for Saudi Arabia or Opec to undertake any measure that would lead to a reduction in [their] share of the market and an increase in of others".

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 18 Dec 2014, 23:43

Warnings that the North Sea oil industry is “close to collapse”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 34421.html

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 19 Dec 2014, 02:27

Here come the tax breaks and subsidies from the taxpayer.