Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Oct 2014, 14:52

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
biffvernon wrote:
"helping up to nearly 8,800 patients over a 6-month period" What is it about the Royal Navy or its political masters that stops them understanding exponential growth?
Only positive happy reportage is allowed in MOD propaganda. It's not aimed at an informed or cynical readership. Still, it's better than nothing, might save a few lives... Is the US DoD supplying ten times that support - because that's the relative difference in UK and US resources.

Given the doubling rate, even that would be an exercise in futility.

In the grand scheme of things it will not affect the final mortality count in these countries one iota because it is too little too late. It will simply mean that the final mortality count is reached a little more slowly than would have been the case otherwise. The only way that total mortality count is brought down is if the re-infection rate can be brought below one. If it is above one, then the epidemiological curve is merely stretched out a bit, that's all. Thus, the effect of such half-arsed interventionist gestures is worse than useless since, in the absence of being part of a strategy to bring re-infections below one, it merely prolongs the agony of the populations involved.

Either a monumental global effort is undertaken to bring re-infection rates to below one, of which there is as yet no sign whatsoever, or these countries may as well be quarantined off and the disease left to burn itself out. That way, at least the rest of the world does not get infected to pandemic levels.

I may have already mentioned this......

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Oct 2014, 14:58

biffvernon wrote:There seems to be a yawning gulf between that report from Les Roberts and what is happening in the UK.

This from the Royal Navy's website about RFA Argus, the hospital ship currently being supplied in Falmouth and setting sale some time later this week.

The UK armed forces have so far played a pivotal role in delivering the current British support as they work with the government of Sierra Leone to tackle the crisis.

Using British expertise and local building contractors, the UK has committed to support 700 new beds in Ebola treatment facilities.

This new package will further support the country’s stretched public health services in containing the disease by helping up to nearly 8,800 patients over a 6-month period.

Military personnel will deploy to Sierra Leone next week where they will join military engineers and planners who have been in country for almost a month, overseeing the construction of the medical facilities.
http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-la ... est-africa

"helping up to nearly 8,800 patients over a 6-month period" What is it about the Royal Navy or its political masters that stops them understanding exponential growth?

They understand it. What else can they say? Not even the Royal Navy can keep up with this outbreak. Nothing and nobody can keep up with it. We knew when I started this thread on July 2nd that the only way to contain an outbreak of ebola is to contain it at the start, before it has a chance to get out of control. It is now completely out of control, literally. There is nothing we (as a country) can do to prevent this virus devastating the three affected countries. The entire focus of the effort now should be to try to ensure that however bad it gets in those three countries, it remains contained within their borders. If this does not happen then what follows will be the defining event of all our lives - we are going to witness a global catastrophe of almost unimaginable proportions and there is no guarantee that all of the people taking part in this debate will live to see the end of it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Oct 2014, 15:01

Exactly UE. The only option now is to contain....totally....by whatever means necessary. Quite apart from any help given to the countries concerned, total quarantining should have happened long before now. Indeed, it may already be too late to implement such a policy.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 13 Oct 2014, 15:17

If I were a military planner I'd certainly be looking at sealing off those doomed countries.

Ideally with an aircraft carrier to serve as an offshore command post, operating gunship helos and fast jets to cover the ground to spot and kill any unauthorised movement over the porous borders, and maritime patrol aircraft to stop any plague ships heading out to sea.

HMS Ark Royal, a sizeable Harrier detachment and some Nimrods operating from Dakar, with the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders on the ground. That should do it.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Oct 2014, 16:14

I think that 'pnaic' is going to accurately describe the real world response in the NHS to a genuine ebola case.

http://metro.co.uk/2014/10/13/london-ho ... y-4903988/

This one was a false alarm. The next one, or the one after that, won't be.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 13 Oct 2014, 16:30

RenewableCandy wrote:How long, if one actually recovers, does it take a previous ebola victim to get back to full health, I wonder? Because after that time, it would be possible to begin staffing hospitals with people who are immune to the disease. Of course, they themselves would have to live at their workplace, to stop them spreading the disease elsewhere.

Put it this way, if the workplace paid and fed me, and I was an otherwise unemployed and desperately poor African, it would be a choice worth considering.

I think this is probably one of the best ways of trying to treat the disease.

I don't say control because as others have said it is beyond control in the 3 west African countries.

If we don't want to see millions (billions) dyeing, we need to quarantine the countries affected NOW. One has to ask why this has/is not happening?? I can only draw one conclusion, that is TPTB want it to reduce the global population.

We will be lucky to stop this becoming a global pandemic - major action must be taken NOW. It may be too late already, but in a couple more weeks it will be too late imo. THIS IS THE BIG ONE.

Post by **clv101** » 13 Oct 2014, 16:43

This article discusses isolation:
http://time.com/3475106/ebola-country-b ... ationsism/

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 13 Oct 2014, 16:43

clv101 wrote:Following the film from Liberia linked above, here's an account from Sierra Leone: http://pfmhcolumbia.wordpress.com/2014/ ... oking-bad/

les wrote:If you think about it a few steps removed from West Africa, this is freakin’ wild. We are primarily trying to facilitate people to die without infecting others.

Unless vaccines are ramped up to hundreds of thousands of doses in the next few weeks, this is the brutal truth.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Oct 2014, 17:04

clv101 wrote:This article discusses isolation:
http://time.com/3475106/ebola-country-b ... ationsism/

The title of that article speak less about practical measures to get this potential global pandemic under control but speaks volumes about the ideological leanings of the author. The title being:

"Ebola and the New Isolationism"

I have highlighted the word in question. This author is trying to tar anyone who suggests sealing the borders of these countries, at least until it is under control within them, with the label of "isolationism". This is no different to the technique used to tar people who object to lax immigration policies in this country with the label of "racism". And it's equally as pathetic. The tosser who wrote that article is content, presumably, to run the risk of a global Ebola pandemic just so long as his delicate liberal sensibilities are not challenged.

Of course, there are isolationists and there are racists. But, That has got F--k ALL TO DO WITH WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE RIGHT NOW.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Oct 2014, 18:03

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... eyewitness

The outbreak through the eyes of a 13 year old girl. Depressing stuff.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 13 Oct 2014, 20:26

"Staff scared to go near patient"
"Allowed him to use a communal toilet and have visitors"
"farcical"

Looks like the UK isn't any better placed to handle it than the US.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... itors.html

Good luck people. You're going to need it.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Oct 2014, 21:17

Hi fifth,

Having finally cleaned up thee Dallas victim's apartment and incinerated the waste, the resulting ash (which is conventionally toxic but no Ebola threat whatsoever) is now stuck with nowhere to go because there is no (Edited - Ken) suitable disposal site in state and no neighbouring state will allow it onto their territory. We may be no better at primary care, but when it comes to totally pointless and petty stupidity the us is hard to beat.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 13 Oct 2014, 21:29

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... erra-leone

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 13 Oct 2014, 21:35

clv101 wrote:This article discusses isolation:
http://time.com/3475106/ebola-country-b ... ationsism/

Insofar as there are any experts in this field, I guess that the author of that Time article, David Quammen, has to be one of the leading ones. His book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, was published a couple of years ago and his new book, Ebola, builds upon it.

http://www.davidquammen.com/spillover

We're all amateurs here.

Buy now, while stocks last: http://www.randomhouse.co.uk/editions/e ... 1847923431

Post by **clv101** » 13 Oct 2014, 21:53

biffvernon wrote:We're all amateurs here.

...I'm half way through reading Ebola right now...