Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

[fuzzy]

I don't think mass flight will happen much longer - too late of course:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-0 ... e-near-you

[PS_RalphW]

There is very little news on the Macedonian incident, but it does not seem likely to be ebola. Fever and stomach ache can be caused by many things, some of them fatal, like a perforated stomach ulcer. Too soon to panic.

I do expect that Ebola will break out and first appear in a totally unexpected victim somewhere, but that somewhere is far more likely to be in the third or developing world.

Lots of scares and rumours, all tests proving negative so far.

Spanish hospital is finding it difficult to get enough medical volunteers to (wo)man their isolation units, seems like the staff don't trust the equipment/training.

I wonder why.

edit

for example, panic in Liverpool

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liv ... la-7912350

I think a black person with an African accent and a cold is going to be as popular on public transport as a bearded Asian man with a large backpack.

Edit

Parisian case 'probable' ebola

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 87026.html

It's getting close.

Finally the US comes up with a good idea.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... ient-death

Edit

I very much suspect the Parisian case is Ebola. Recent traveler from Liberia. Hope the French did a better job than the Spanish/Yanks, I'm really surprised that this case has not hit French media sites yet.

[clv101]

In the office at lunch today, I asked half a dozen scientists/engineers how worried they were (0-10) about Ebola's impact on them personally. Everyone said 0-1. The suggestion seemed to be that it was a far away problem with no chance of impacting our day to day lives.

[snow hope]

In the office at lunch today, I asked half a dozen scientists/engineers how worried they were (0-10) about Ebola's impact on them personally. Everyone said 0-1. The suggestion seemed to be that it was a far away problem with no chance of impacting our day to day lives.

This is exactly what my brother said. But it doesn't make him (or your half dozen office colleagues) right..... Of course, I hope they are right and that I am wrong!

[clv101]

Also, click my Twitter link below for larger survey.

[PS_RalphW]

Ebola: Le cas suspect à l'hôpital Bichat est négatif

I called that one wrong.

[clv101]

According to these data, the number of reported Ebola cases has been falling recently. How come? Increasing rate of under reporting?
https://t.co/BtdSUT3HA1

[adam2]

According to these data, the number of reported Ebola cases has been falling recently. How come? Increasing rate of under reporting?
https://t.co/BtdSUT3HA1

It could be increased under reporting, or it MIGHT be the case that in the worst afflicted areas, that most vulnerable people are already infected.
One would then expect a drop in new cases until the disease spreads to new areas with plenty of potential victims.

[another_exlurker]

According to these data, the number of reported Ebola cases has been falling recently. How come? Increasing rate of under reporting?
https://t.co/BtdSUT3HA1

It could be increased under reporting, or it MIGHT be the case that in the worst afflicted areas, that most vulnerable people are already infected.
One would then expect a drop in new cases until the disease spreads to new areas with plenty of potential victims.

I tend to agree with the latter part of that. In a fixed population, the virus cannot continue to expand exponentially, it will tail off eventually. Those people lucky enough to have the best immune system may well have already been infected, but have shown little or no signs of infection, effectively making them immune to it.

[madibe]

I don't know about it tailing off in the near future.

For sure, eventually it will - but I think this situation is a way off yet.

Of course the biggie is the transmission method - if it is, or does go, airborne then asta-la-vista baby.

Bye bye cruel world.

Fingers crossed on that one eh?

[madibe]

Just to add - people don't understand exponential :/

[biffvernon]

According to these data, the number of reported Ebola cases has been falling recently. How come? Increasing rate of under reporting?
https://t.co/BtdSUT3HA1

It could be increased under reporting, or it MIGHT be the case that in the worst afflicted areas, that most vulnerable people are already infected.
One would then expect a drop in new cases until the disease spreads to new areas with plenty of potential victims.

I tend to agree with the latter part of that. In a fixed population, the virus cannot continue to expand exponentially, it will tail off eventually. Those people lucky enough to have the best immune system may well have already been infected, but have shown little or no signs of infection, effectively making them immune to it.

Where did the numbers come from? Who's doing the counting and how did they do it?

[madibe]

For sure Biff - the numbers are all over the place. Presumably the WHO collates the numbers?

But yea...they tend to be all over the place :/

[adam2]

Official toll now over 4,000 (WHO figure, reported on BBC website.)

[UndercoverElephant]

Official toll now over 4,000 (WHO figure, reported on BBC website.)

Which means the real death toll is probably more like 10,000, and there's probably a couple of thousand infected right now.

I'm going to stick my head out and predict that we are now going to see an absolute minimum of 1,000,000 deaths during this outbreak, and that it highly likely that more people will die in this initial ebola pandemic than died in the flu pandemic of 1918-1920. I see no reason why this disease is not going to be the most destructive (of humans) infectious disease since the Black Death. It's going to escape the current "hot zone" and it is pretty obvious that once it overwhelms the health system in any particular locality, then it cannot be stopped.

IMO the question of to what extent in can be contained in western countries still hasn't been answered. It could halve the population of India, though.