Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

Atman · Post by **Atman** » 06 Oct 2014, 18:07

"A published scientific paper has calculated a 50% chance of Ebola reaching uk in the next 3 weeks, higher for France, if airlines continue normal service to infected countries, and cases continue at current growth rate, it becomes a question of when, not if. "

Err should I be panicking or at least doing something to reduce my chances of being infected in the next few months?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Oct 2014, 18:18

Atman wrote:"A published scientific paper has calculated a 50% chance of Ebola reaching uk in the next 3 weeks, higher for France, if airlines continue normal service to infected countries, and cases continue at current growth rate, it becomes a question of when, not if. "

Err should I be panicking or at least doing something to reduce my chances of being infected in the next few months?

Panicking never helped anyone in any way.

And I'm not sure what you can do to reduce your chances of being infected, apart from the obvious things like not touching strangers and keeping as far away as possible from anyone showing symptoms consistent with ebola.

I'm already doing this.

As an aside...is it just me, or has the flow of news from Africa pretty much stopped since ebola landed in the United States?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Oct 2014, 18:21

Breaking news: first confirmed infection outside of Africa:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29514920

A Spanish nurse who treated an Ebola victim in Madrid is suspected of being the first person to have contracted the virus outside Africa, Spanish media say.

The nurse tested positive for Ebola in initial tests and doctors are awaiting final results, according to reports.

She was a member of the team that treated Spanish priest Manuel Garcia Viejo, who died of Ebola on 25 September.

Post by **adam2** » 06 Oct 2014, 19:42

Atman wrote:"A published scientific paper has calculated a 50% chance of Ebola reaching uk in the next 3 weeks, higher for France, if airlines continue normal service to infected countries, and cases continue at current growth rate, it becomes a question of when, not if. "

Err should I be panicking or at least doing something to reduce my chances of being infected in the next few months?

Panicking wont help much
If you have not already done so, I would suggest a study of the Ebola thread in the "preparations" forum where specific preps are suggested and discussed.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... hp?t=25092

nexus · Post by **nexus** » 06 Oct 2014, 21:20

As an aside...is it just me, or has the flow of news from Africa pretty much stopped since ebola landed in the United States?

I was just thinking the same thing this morning. Hmmm......

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 06 Oct 2014, 22:05

Watch BBC News at 10 - NOW - for an update!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Oct 2014, 10:45

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29516882

120 deaths in Sierra Leone in one day (Sunday).

Looks to me like the outbreaks in both SL and Liberia have now reached the point where no amount of new resources coming from outside stand the remotest chance of getting things under control. Far too many infectious people are already unable to be isolated, which can only mean a skyrocketing infection rate that will continue to grow exponentially. And that means it isn't going to slow down until the number of (immune) survivors is statistically significant compared to the number of people being newly exposed. Population of SL and Liberia are 6m and 4.3 million respectively. And that mean upwards of 5,000,000 deaths in those two countries alone over the next couple of years.

This must have been what the Black Death looked like. Similar sort of death rate, same fear, same inability to stop the epidemic despite trying.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Oct 2014, 12:25

Yes. As I was saying before my posts (and the posts of some others) were deleted, the only thing that makes any sense now is to seal the borders, send in food and other essentials, let it blow through and burn itself out, assuming it's not already too late to contain it. Personally, I think there is still time. That is to say, the infections outside of these key countries are still few enough in number to be brought fully under control. However, for as long as it rages out of control in those key countries, they will continue provide a platform for reinfections all around the world for as long as the borders remain open.

Then again, let the bugger run riot across the world and take out a billion or so.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 07 Oct 2014, 14:07

stevecook172001 wrote:Then again, let the bugger run riot across the world and take out a billion or so.

How would you feel being one of them? Me and my loved ones certainly don't want to be....

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Oct 2014, 14:27

snow hope wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote:Then again, let the bugger run riot across the world and take out a billion or so.
How would you feel being one of them? Me and my loved ones certainly don't want to be....

Me neither. That doesn't stop it being a good thing for me and mine if we survived as it would be a good thing for all who survived.

A damned site more than a billion are going to live unpleasant lives and suffer unpleasant and early deaths over the coming decades in any event. Even more so than is already the case and it's bad enough for a vast swathe of humanity as it is. Are you so sure that a sudden reduction in the population will be the cause of greater suffering overall? It could just as easily, if not more easily, be argued that it will be the cause of less suffering overall.

Am I right in imputing from your post that. in your heart of hearts you believe that a "soft landing" is possible for humanity? You see, I don't believe it's possible and that changes everything in terms how I see the world as compared to you. Or is it, perhaps, that you just don't want to face the moral dilemma of having to argue a position through to it's logical conclusion, wherever that may take you? Or, finally, is it simply that you don't have a "position", but are just concerned with the immediate time horizon of safety for you and yours? In which case that's absolutely fair enough and is certainly morally and logically consistent. Also, I have no doubt such concerns are entirely typical of the majority of your fellow citizens. Though, I am bound to say, if true, then you have just provided the archetypical example of why we, collectively as a species, are in the shit we are in. That is to say, short time horizons of human imagination coupled with a natural tendency to self interest. This is not a criticism in any way, by the way (there's as much point in criticizing the sun for setting each evening) . Just a statement of observation.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 07 Oct 2014, 16:06

A sudden pop. drop of a billion or so would surely just be another growth opportunity? So, it would only delay things for a bit anyway.

It also might cause greater suffering post-plague if economies collapse etc.. Then, things might be better for an extra generation, once everything sorts itself out. Until the populations grow, resource squeezing, and back to square one again.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 07 Oct 2014, 17:24

If a significant proportion of those deaths were in a western country or countries it could collapse the whole western economy. The loss of growth due to smaller population and the economic shutdown required to control the disease would see a new recession set in and that could set off another banking crisis given the levels of debt still extant in the west.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Oct 2014, 17:34

kenneal - lagger wrote:If a significant proportion of those deaths were in a western country or countries it could collapse the whole western economy. The loss of growth due to smaller population and the economic shutdown required to control the disease would see a new recession set in and that could set off another banking crisis given the levels of debt still extant in the west.

Another banking crisis? As in the whole stinking pile of debt ridden corruption might finally collapse?

Good.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 07 Oct 2014, 17:42

Yup!!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Oct 2014, 18:14

As soon as there is any serious threat of an epidemic in the western world that is out of control it would precipitate another financial crisis. It wouldn't even need to get to the stage of a significant number of deaths - the shrinking economy due to compulsory shutdowns and people choosing to stay at home instead of doing all sorts of things they would otherwise have spent money on would on its own be enough to cause this to happen.