Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 29 Sep 2014, 07:09

Even an airborne virus, with qualifications, still only goes where its host goes. That is to say, airborne viruses do not typically travel through the air for more than a few dozen yards at most. What is of at least as much importance is how long it can survive outside of a host body. In either case, the use of quarantining, via national boundaries where necessary, is just as efficacious for airborne viruses as it is for contact ones. Frankly, I can't believe both of us are having to spell this out Ken.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 29 Sep 2014, 15:13

We're agreeing on somethng, Steve!!

I suspect that we're only having to spell this out to one person or maybe two people.

That person still hasn't replied to my point about what the Palestinians and a few other ethnically cleansed peoples might think about uncontrolled borders and immigration.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 Sep 2014, 18:52

However it is a factor of practical convenience. National borders generally already have physical obstructions in the form of border posts or fences or natural boundaries, along with the administrative organisation to control them. In this case, a lot of the borders concerned are dense jungle, so they may well be porous anyway, but setting up new borders around a fast spreading virus is like cutting a firebreak to stop a wildfire a mile away in a fifty mph headwind.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Sep 2014, 19:25

Yes, in the case of inland Sierra Leone / Guinea* there is absolutely no physically demarcated border and many of the people living in the area don't even know which nation they live in!

(*edited to correct geographical typo)

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 29 Sep 2014, 21:32

http://www.sprott.com/markets-at-a-glan ... ing-point/

The author of this piece is usually mentioned on this board because of his expertise in the relevance of gold and silver to the monetary/economic aspects of Peak Everything.

Now, in light of all this, it is rather puzzling that the WHO would recommend “no ban on international travel or trade”, but at the same time instruct countries to be prepared to detect, investigate and manage Ebola!12 Clearly those countries in West Africa are already having trouble with regular health care, why would the WHO assume that they can put in place all these controls. This is completely foolish. Indeed, many African countries have already closed their borders to infected areas to try to slow the spread of the disease.

After more than 6 months, the West is finally reacting by promising some much needed help. The seriousness of the situation is finally being recognized by the authorities; the WHO has been steadily increasing their estimate of the funds needed to slow the epidemic, from $100M a month ago to over $1B now13. The tone is also changing, with the WHO’s Director-General recently calling this Ebola event the “greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.”14

There is no way for authorities to predict and control what people will do in extreme circumstances. They will act in the way that, at the time, seems best for them. Combine this with the WHO’s encouraged laissez-faire vis-à-vis air travel and you have a potentially explosive situation. Already, scientists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that by January 2015, the number of cases could be as high as 1.4 million.15 At some point there will simply not be enough medical staff. Did we already pass that tipping point?

While Ebola transmission is not airborne yet, that doesn’t mean it will remain contained in Africa; the virus doesn’t know where borders are.

I suggest you think very, very hard about this…

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 30 Sep 2014, 10:37

Not happy some of my posts have been deleted. I am more than prepared to apologise and account for personal abuse if I am guilty of that. However, I do not consider any of the posts made by me on this thread to be guilty of that. They are hard criticisms to be sure, but I make no apology for that. If this level of censorship is going to become the norm on this board, I'm out.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 30 Sep 2014, 10:41

Yet more posts deleted I see. Posts that covered debate on what is, arguably, the underlying problem of the incapacity of the world to act on so many pressing fronts. But, because such debate is seen by some on here, who presumably, have the power to delete posts, as not very "nice" all such debate is erased is it?

Either a full explanation is immediately forthcoming for the removal of said posts, or they are returned or I'm gone as of now.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 30 Sep 2014, 10:45

Please don't leave, Steve. Let's just hope the person responsible for these repeated disputes stops causing them. Otherwise this process will just repeat itself.

Post by **adam2** » 30 Sep 2014, 10:48

stevecook172001 wrote:Not happy some of my posts have been deleted. I am more than prepared to apologise and account for personal abuse if I am guilty of that. However, I do not consider any of the posts made by me on this thread to be guilty of that. They are hard criticisms to be sure, but I make no apology for that. If this level of censorship is going to become the norm on this board, I'm out.

I have deleted a number of posts, not just yours. Most consisted of personal attacks rather than reasoned arguments. Some posts though reasonable in themselves no longer made sense as they quoted or referred to deleted posts.
Other posts were completely off topic and referred to the Palestine/Israel conflict, or to the importance of bees to the ecosystem, these important subjects may be discussed in existing or newly started threads on the relevant subjects. They have only the most indirect connection to the Ebola outbreak.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 30 Sep 2014, 10:58

There is a fine line between robust intellectual critique and personal attack. The former is valuable. The latter, IMHO, is not, and it will cause people to leave a forum.

The Admins on this board generally maintain a very light touch and, again IMHO, call it right most of the time. I certainly don't envy them their task. Perhaps the deletion of some posts should be regarded as a wake-up call to all of us, in terms of our etiquette?

Just my view.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 30 Sep 2014, 11:30

Ebola: What more can be done?

Conference live streamed this afternoon 3.30

http://www.odi.org/events/4033-ebola-more-can-be-done

This year's Ebola outbreak has so far claimed the lives of thousands in West Africa. The rate of contamination is snowballing with some predicting that more than 500,000 could be infected by the end of January. What can be done to destroy Ebola and are we doing enough? Will the international community learn from this response and be better prepared for future epidemics?

This ODI public event will bring together a panel of experts, officials and aid workers with first-hand experience of the crisis to debate these crucial questions.

Follow #EbolaResponse on Twitter for live coverage.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 30 Sep 2014, 11:37

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 30 Sep 2014, 11:51

I thought africa wanted independence, being independent means your a adult not a child that needs the rest of the world to sort out all your problems.

Please stop the paternalism

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 30 Sep 2014, 14:08

jonny2mad wrote: I thought africa wanted independence, being independent means your a adult not a child that needs the rest of the world to sort out all your problems.

Please stop the paternalism

Many african countries were stitched up to receive independence. RSA was dumped with costs that were incurred recklessly by the outgoing aparteit gov. The banks/IMF etc. have expected these repaid despite those now running the country being the victims of the previous regime. Most african countries are way too large and underdeveloped for effective admin, and the ex colonials still own the mines, plantations etc. Outside governments still interfere and encourage conflicts.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 30 Sep 2014, 15:17

Even independent nations need help from outside when the chips are down.