Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

[Standuble]

According to the most recent stats for the 20th September known cases stand at 5,927 with 2,767 known deaths. According to the wikipedia table I'm looking at that is double the total number of known cases in less than 30 days. It remains to be seen what the Sierra Leone lock down achieved but if it will doubles again by the end of October we are in serious trouble.

Any guesses or estimates what the actual total may be (including unknown cases)?

Addendum: Am I alone in suspecting that one of the three countries may have requested the US send troops to actually liquidate the entire infected population as a last ditch attempt to end the epidemic? If the US troops are awaiting authorisation from the respective country's government I imagine it would come soon as the longer they wait the less effective it would be as an endgame plan.

[UndercoverElephant]

Any guesses or estimates what the actual total may be (including unknown cases)?

Several sources are suggesting there are more unknown cases than known cases, but I've not seen anyone try to put figures on it.

Addendum: Am I alone in suspecting that one of the three countries may have requested the US send troops to actually liquidate the entire infected population as a last ditch attempt to end the epidemic? If the US troops are awaiting authorisation from the respective country's government I imagine it would come soon as the longer they wait the less effective it would be as an endgame plan.

Well, I'm pretty sure they've not been sent there to set up field hospitals with a few hundred beds in, because that will make precious little difference to anything at this point in the proceedings. So they have been sent for some other reason. My best guess is to seal either the borders of the countries affected, or badly affected areas within them. I can't see how you can "liquidate the entire infected population" though, because nobody knows who is infected. I don't think it would work - not as a strategy for stopping the epidemic anyway. Might slow it down a bit, but that's no help in the long run.

I don't believe this epidemic can be contained now, unless it is possible to completely seal the borders of all three worst-affected countries.

[madibe]

No Standuble - this is far from endgame. Very far.

Ebola is scary, but the numbers are small compared to many many killers. Before any endgame plan the numbers would need to be much higher and the countries completely isolated by national borders of several hundred miles - i.e. no air travel and policed borders in surrounding countries, most likely with the threat of locked and loaded, shoot on sight.

No single country would be called in to be 'executioner'. The fallout and responsibility would be too great for even the good ole US of A. If such a cleansing was considered it would be by isolation and natural wastage.

But still, the numbers are too low to make this a possibility.

Now if it was airborne - that would be another matter. Whole regions could be firebombed in such a scenario: the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

Really though, the focus needs to be on other nations shutting borders, stopping air travel unless militarily co-ordinated. I struggle to understand why most countries have not put this into action. Perhaps it is well planned?

I think the world (outside of Africa) is a little too self-assured that this virus would not take hold in a 'civilised' society because 'we have better hygiene' and 'we have better healthcare'. Imagine one contagious person on Londons underground... how would you identify all those that came into close contact?

[PS_RalphW]

The are significant numbers of uk medical staff volunteering with medcin sans frontiers and other charities. They are risking thiert lives with worse odds than us special forces on special ops. I heard one talking on world service. She gave herself 10% chance of dieing.

[fuzzy]

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014 ... break.html

“This analysis shows that by 14 September, a total of 70.8% of patients with definitive outcomes have died. This rate was consistent among Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. But the case fatality rate was lower when only hospitalized patients were considered"

The cumulative number of cases and deaths, officially reported to WHO from 23 March to 22 September, is 5,843 cases and 2,803 deaths. To date, 337 health care workers have been infected, and more than 181 of them have died.

[kenneal - lagger]

Those stats show that about 25% of patients can be saved by simple oral rehydration treatments because that is all they are getting in those hospitals at the moment.

The comments about the US aid is symptomatic of the lack of trust for US motives throughout the world at the moment. In my opinion, the real motive is probably fear of transmission of the disease to the US through US connections with Liberia.

The UK is sending medical aid to set up hospital places, VT. Not the number of beds that the US is but certainly as many in proportion to our size. We have extensive connections with West Africa as well although probably not as close with the major infected countries as the US with Liberia. We have recently sent troops into Sierra Leon to help with incursions there.

[adam2]

I have deleted a number of off topic rants and personal remarks that referred to the merits or otherwise of unrelated military action. Please try to stay reasonably polite and on the subject.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Up to 1.4m people could be infected with Ebola by January, CDC warns

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... f-comments

from the comments:

It is inevitable, that if this continues to spiral upwards, then much of Africa will become an "exclusion zone" and as mentioned on a BBC article today, it may just be beyond remedy with certain regions continually having outbreaks.

If it reaches 1.4 million by January, then I suspect and expect it to reach tens of millions a month or two later. If that happens, then there will be no alternative but for "boots on the ground" to contain it within Africa and not expand elsewhere.

The world, is liable to very seriously change, these changes coincidently mean use of governments " emergency executive powers" and very serious implications for world trade.

I mention on other articles that crisis repeats on average every 9 years. This Ebola crisis is very likely to arrive on our reality doorstep before then. As well as it's victims, the damage to our own and other struggling economies will send us back towards the abyss, especially as investments and money in African loans etc are non obtainable due to Ebola.

On a TV programme the other week, they showed what it takes to just increase productivity to produce 80 Ebola treatments. The numbers with Ebola can very soon be far beyond capability of remedy and spread prevention and a mass pandemic.

It is NOT looking good, especially as there is more likely to be attempts at massive exodus from these areas, which will require military boots on the ground to prevent it from spreading.

We may sit enjoying our lives, but EVERYONE should already be keeping their eyes and ears open, because survival for ALL may depend upon it.

[madibe]

The thrust here seems to be on local burial practices; obviously, this is a big factor that would have less of an impact on the west. However, I am doubtful that this is the major player in transmission - surely by now most west africans are awake to the fact that a dead body is a deadly body?

Or am i wrong?

[kenneal - lagger]

As long as flights are controlled and it doesn't spread into North Africa Ebola shouldn't be a problem for Europeans as it takes most refugees more than the incubation period to cross the Sahara. Loss of income for airlines could hamper sensible action on flight controls, I'm afraid, so the costs of treatment and containment of the disease will again be bourn by the taxpayer so that the business can retain its profits.

I find the worries about loss of trade harming the world's economy a bit sickening in view of the suffering involved but if that is what is necessary to goad the world's leaders into action then so be it.

[jonny2mad]

The thrust here seems to be on local burial practices; obviously, this is a big factor that would have less of an impact on the west. However, I am doubtful that this is the major player in transmission - surely by now most west africans are awake to the fact that a dead body is a deadly body?

Or am i wrong?

Considering in the recent war in Sierra Leone you had widespread cannibalism because people thought eating people made you bullet proof. I mean open cannibalism with people wandering about chomping on hands and feet, and the average IQ is 64 in Sierra Leone third lowest in the world with some of the other countries with Ebola in the top ten lowest.
This is not going to make the job of education any easier.

I mean think about all the teachers the aid workers the decades of work that has been spent on that region, and we are daft enough to spend more .


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmrkTi3EHqk

[biffvernon]

An excellent rant, joining important dots.

https://www.goodreads.com/author_blog_p ... ance-kills

[adam2]

Latest official figures put the death toll at just under 3,000. There is of course a very strong suspicion that the actual toll is much higher.
(source BBC news quoting the WHO)

[adam2]

The thrust here seems to be on local burial practices; obviously, this is a big factor that would have less of an impact on the west. However, I am doubtful that this is the major player in transmission - surely by now most west africans are awake to the fact that a dead body is a deadly body?

Or am i wrong?

I fear that you are wrong, anecdotal reports suggest that large numbers of west Africans have more faith in witch doctors, tribal beliefs, and traditional rituals than in western science, including the need for prompt deep burial or cremation.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

The thrust here seems to be on local burial practices; obviously, this is a big factor that would have less of an impact on the west. However, I am doubtful that this is the major player in transmission - surely by now most west africans are awake to the fact that a dead body is a deadly body?

Or am i wrong?

I fear that you are wrong, anecdotal reports suggest that large numbers of west Africans have more faith in witch doctors, tribal beliefs, and traditional rituals than in western science, including the need for prompt deep burial or cremation.

In which case there will be cultural change - among the survivors. I imagine it will get to the point where communications break down altogether and the region descends into even more of a hellish mosh pit as Jonny2Mad cites.

Best stop flights from Lagos, adopting the precautionary principle...?