Scotland Watch

peaceful_life · Post by **peaceful_life** » 21 Sep 2014, 18:06

Tarrel wrote:A couple of observations:

1. I wonder if we need a "Constitution Watch" thread. The discussion is becoming broader than the Scotland issue, and is likely to remain topical for some time.

2. As this is the Powerswitch forum, it might be interesting to look at the future political shape of the UK through the lens of peak oil / peak resources. i.e. what political system / constitutional make-up would allow the citizens of the current UK to most effectively weather the turmoil that is coming?

Exactly, which is why the scope and breadth of the 'Yes' campaign creates at least the space to engage on such needed conversations and they are opening up.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Sep 2014, 18:37

Tarrel wrote:Their website is still creaking under the strain.

I don't think it is going to make much difference.

Anything could happen, but I strongly suspect there isn't going to be another Scottish independence referendum in my lifetime. I think the unionist majority thought they would win this one easily and that it would put the question to bed for a very long time. In the end they did win it easily, but there was a period when it looked very close, and that scared the living daylights out of both the establishment and most of the unionist population of the UK - which is a vast majority.

That referendum took place because the SNP could argue that the majority it had won in the Scottish parliament was evidence that a majority in Scotland wanted independence. Most people knew that wasn't true - that actually a lot of those SNP voters were just protest voters who hated all three westminster parties and saw voting for the SNP as the best way to register their dissatisfaction. But Westminster couldn't argue that - didn't want to (politically admitting you're hated) and also couldn't prove it was true.

Now, even if the SNP wins majorities in the Scottish Parliament, and the nationalists try to argue that this because the Scottish people aren't happy with devolution and really do want independence, Westminster can just say "this is not evidence that a majority in Scotland want independence, as demonstrated by the last referendum, where a lot of SNP voters voted to keep the union." And it doesn't actually matter whether or not this is still true. In fact, the more the establishment parties suspect it isn't true, the more likely they are to use it as a (dishonest, but defensible) justification for denying the nationalists another referendum.

I think will turn out to be not only a "once in a generation" but a "once in a lifetime" shot at Scottish independence. Had it been an easy win, the question would have been put to bed. Because there was a moment when the unionists got really scared, the question won't be allowed to be asked again.

Heads we win, tails you lose. Scotland is not going to be allowed independence, regardless of what the people of Scotland want. This is essentially the same as the position in Spain. It's not unusual.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 21 Sep 2014, 18:45

Because there was a moment when the unionists got really scared, the question won't be allowed to be asked again.

Yes, I think you're right. However, I wouldn't right off the possibility of another one being forced by sheer popular pressure if sufficient people feel wronged by a significant failure to deliver against promised devolved powers.

It's surprising though how much chatter there is about from pro-indy folk who just assume another referendum will be granted.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 21 Sep 2014, 19:26

"You can judge a man by the company he keeps"

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Sep 2014, 22:47

UndercoverElephant wrote:....I think will turn out to be not only a "once in a generation" but a "once in a lifetime" shot at Scottish independence. Had it been an easy win, the question would have been put to bed. Because there was a moment when the unionists got really scared, the question won't be allowed to be asked again....

If Westminster breaks the promises made in the dying days of the referendum; promises that in all probability swung the election the necessary 5% to 10% in the direction of YES, then it should be less worried by the YES voters, as the NO voters who were lied to. And, if you think, under those circumstances, that the Scots will just leave it at that for the next lifetime, then you have even less of a grasp of what has actually happened in Scotland and to the Scottish people than you have so far given the impression of. You seek to dismiss all that has gone on there as a people, mostly young people, being just a little bit foolish and gullible. What has gone on there has happened for the same reason we had the riots all over England, for the reason the far right and the far left are on the rise all over Europe. It's about a rejection of the global capitalism that has gripped our societies and is benefiting only a tiny minority elite. It's true enough, of course, that the biggest rejection is by those who are being f***ed over most mightily and that happens to be the young. But, their rejection in Scotland, whilst idealistic, is not gullibility, it's based on their real world experiences of life and what little it has to offer them under the current state of affairs. Whatever happens next, it is not going to be BAU. Either there will be greater equity of resource allocation as the hard times really begin to bite, or there will be trouble in Scotland and elsewhere. Scotland is just one part of that bigger jigsaw and, for all or any of the difficulties the Scots may or may not face with independence, their rejection of all that has played so large a part in leading us to the precipice we now stand upon, is to be celebrated. Furthermore, what they have done is to light a spark which could light a fire this side of the border.

This is not over.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Sep 2014, 22:54

stevecook172001 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:....I think will turn out to be not only a "once in a generation" but a "once in a lifetime" shot at Scottish independence. Had it been an easy win, the question would have been put to bed. Because there was a moment when the unionists got really scared, the question won't be allowed to be asked again....
If Westminster breaks the promises made in the dying days of the referendum; promises that in all probability swing the election the necessary 5 to 10% in the direction of yes, then they should be less worried by the YES voters, as the NO voters who were lied to. And, if you think, under those circumstances, that the Scots will just leave it at that for the next lifetime, then you have even less of a grasp of what has actually happened in Scotland than you have so far given the impression of. You seek to dismiss all that has gone on there as a people, mostly young people, being just a little bit foolish and gullible.

Not quite. I think their decisions for voting yes were a bit foolish and gullible, but I don't think their reasons for wanting to be independent of "Tory-run" England are foolish and gullible. It's not quite the same thing. There's a balance here between the desire to be free of tory-run England, and the realities of going it alone. In other words, there are advantages to Scotland of being part of the UK, as well as the disadvantages of having to be, at least partly, ruled by English Tories.

What has gone on there has happened for the same reason we had the riots all over England, for the reason the far right and the far left are on the rise all over Europe. It's about a rejection of the global capitalism that has gripped our societies and is benefiting only a tiny minority elite.

Yes, I agree. Where I disagree is that voting for independence in Scotland would, in the end, have made much difference to this. Scotland would not suddenly have become immune to the slimy, evil grip of those corporate powers. The SNP wouldn't have been able to make good on its promises, regardless of how much it might have wanted to.

Whatever happens next, it is not going to be BAU.

UK-BAU, you mean, of course, and everybody agrees with you, including the Tories. It's just that agreeing on what replaces UK-BAU is not so easy.

Either there will be greater equity of resource allocation as the hard times really begin to bite, or there will be trouble. Scotland is just one part of that bigger jigsaw and, for all or any of the difficulties the Scots may or may not face with independence, their rejection of all that has played so large a part in leading us to the precipice we now stand upon, is to be celebrated. Furthermore, what they have done is to light a spark which could light a fire this side of the border.

This is not over.

There's going to be plenty of trouble, one way or another.

Are the Scots "just going to leave it at that" if they are denied another referendum following unsatisfactory post-referendum goings-on at Westminster?

The Scots would be very foolish to try to stage some sort of revolution without the support of the working class English. On their own, with a nationalist tinge, it would be suppressed, brutally if necessary, and the English ruling classes would get away with it. What I am trying to say is that what just happened in Scotland wasn't really nationalistic - as I'm sure you'd agree, it was really class warfare under the guise of nationalism. And if there is going to be real, lasting change in the UK, that class warfare is going to require the whole of the UK working class "rising up" together. If they can be split along nationalistic lines, the elite will win. Divide and rule, as far as they are concerned.

OrraLoon · Post by **OrraLoon** » 22 Sep 2014, 19:45

LibDoom:

With an increase in membership of some 18,000 since the referendum it appears that the SNP is about to overtake the UK LibDems in numbers of signed-up supporters.

"It wes listenin tae that Undercover Elephant that made me dae it", said Scott McScroggie (19) of Possilpark Polytechnic, "*@*@in does ma heid in, that maggot".

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Sep 2014, 21:47

Mr. Fox · Post by **Mr. Fox** » 23 Sep 2014, 00:52

Still shite to be Scottish, then?

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 23 Sep 2014, 09:58

Could the SNP be the real political winners in this whole affair? As of this morning, membership increase since Friday stands at 21,400 and they have, apparently, eclipsed the Liberal Democrats as the UK's third largest party. No signs at the moment of this rate of increase slowing. 1400 new members overnight alone according to their Twitter feed.

There is also a growing movement encouraging "Yes"-voting non-SNP members to vote SNP and support the local SNP candidate at the next general election.

Next May could be quite interesting.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 23 Sep 2014, 10:02

Mr. Fox wrote:Still shite to be Scottish, then?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EE4alauiS4

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 23 Sep 2014, 10:08

Off the Lib Dem website:

The Liberal Democrats are continuing to grow as a party, with membership expected to reach 44,000 today – an increase of more than 500 members this year. This compares with 42,501 at the start of 2013 and 43,451 at the start of this year.

(April 2014)

SNP membership just grew by 500 in the last 90 minutes!

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 23 Sep 2014, 10:20

The thing is we know about peak oil, if the future was going to be just pottering along yup scotlands lost its chance for a lifetime, but it wont potter along .

You have the chance coming for all sorts of non mainstream partys for seperatism, loads of ideas will be tried, none really will work and stop the hammer that will hit us though.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 23 Sep 2014, 16:08

What's this all about?

http://youtu.be/GAtJLGswfTo

A scam? Easy done.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 25 Sep 2014, 20:53

Banksy's latest:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/ ... cf65d22d40