Scotland Watch

peaceful_life · Post by **peaceful_life** » 18 Sep 2014, 18:58

OrraLoon wrote:Three young women with Catalan flags at the traffic lights opposite the George IV Bridge polling station in Edinburgh this morning. Crowds milling about. Someone shouted "Viva Catalunya!" They replied "¡Viva!" [because they're allowed to use upside-down exclamation marks]
And apparently four Catalan firemen have driven all the way to Glasgow in a brightly-painted car for the last day of the referendum. Salvador Dali, eat your heart out.

Meanwhile…
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/foo ... d.25357920
["Bank run in the morning, you'll have a bank run in the morning..."]

We're causing too much trouble. That and insidious historical defeatism and paranoia make me predict (if anything) that the result will show a narrow "No". But if there is a next time, then watch out.

Even with such a democratic deficit faced and explained here... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWTBOH7hZow#t=460

If enough people have spoken to enough people, then it could easily be a 'yes' landslide, although....this really isn't meant to happen.

peaceful_life · Post by **peaceful_life** » 18 Sep 2014, 19:32

peaceful_life wrote:
OrraLoon wrote:Three young women with Catalan flags at the traffic lights opposite the George IV Bridge polling station in Edinburgh this morning. Crowds milling about. Someone shouted "Viva Catalunya!" They replied "¡Viva!" [because they're allowed to use upside-down exclamation marks]
And apparently four Catalan firemen have driven all the way to Glasgow in a brightly-painted car for the last day of the referendum. Salvador Dali, eat your heart out.

Meanwhile…
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/foo ... d.25357920
["Bank run in the morning, you'll have a bank run in the morning..."]

We're causing too much trouble. That and insidious historical defeatism and paranoia make me predict (if anything) that the result will show a narrow "No". But if there is a next time, then watch out.
Even with such a democratic deficit faced and explained here... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWTBOH7hZow#t=460

If enough people have spoken to enough people, then it could easily be a 'yes' landslide, although....this really isn't meant to happen.

* http://fivemillionquestions.org/blog/20 ... ce-debate/

'Overall Statistical Findings

When all relevant articles were quantified together, it becomes clear that the upcoming referendum has been a, and surely the, main news story over the past 12 months. Combining front-page articles, editorials and comment pieces gives a total of 1578 articles. When headlines were analysed for evidence of Pro-Union/Pro-Independence framing, it was discovered that whilst 976 (61.8%) headlines showed no obvious bias towards either side, those headlines which did display some form of bias showed that for every headline which framed Scottish independence positively, there were 4.3 articles which were against independence. When the main body of the text was analysed in depth, 763 (48.4%) were neutral in their coverage, with those remaining articles showing evidence of clear bias were weighted 3-to-1 in favour of a pro-Union position'

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Sep 2014, 20:46

stevecook172001 wrote:If you look at all of the UK general elections since the fifties Scotland has consistently voted Labour, prior to the rise of the SNP. However, for only half of that time has Scotland actually had a Labour government.

This is misleading. It's true, of course, but you could make the same argument about several northern cities, and various other arbitrarily-defined bits of the UK.

It's misleading because Scotland has voted that way as part of the United Kingdom. It does not follow that if Scotland had been an independent country for all that time, it would consistently have had a socialist government. The reason for that is that Scottish politics would have been different had it been an independent country - instead of seeing itself as contrasting to "Tory England", there would most likely have been a different left/right split within Scotland. In other words, Scotland would have ended up with its own version of the tories - the richer, more right-oriented Scots. And naturally, because of the way our electoral system works, there would probably have been a much more even balance between the time the left was in power, and the time the right was in power.

As for tonight's vote...que sera sera. I for one will be glad it is all over, which ever way it goes. If the Scots are going, then they are going. And the consequences will be whatever they will be, for them, and for us.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 18 Sep 2014, 22:54

YouGov exit poll suggesting 54% no, 46% yes.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 18 Sep 2014, 23:07

By this time tomorrow night, Salmond will be in the political wilderness.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 18 Sep 2014, 23:15

Correction; it's not an exit poll, but an " on the day" poll of people previously polled by YouGov.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Sep 2014, 23:22

Tarrel wrote:YouGov exit poll suggesting 54% no, 46% yes.

Interesting...the BBC said there wasn't any exit poll, but did quote a phone poll of people who had voted. 50.5% no, 49.5% yes.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Sep 2014, 23:22

Tarrel wrote:Correction; it's not an exit poll, but an " on the day" poll of people previously polled by YouGov.

Eh? I must be going deaf...I'm sure that's not what that Welsh bloke said on the BBC.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Sep 2014, 23:24

Shortfall wrote:By this time tomorrow night, Salmond will be in the political wilderness.

I certainly hope so. Unfortunately, he'll still be the First Minister of Scotland, unless he resigns.

peaceful_life · Post by **peaceful_life** » 18 Sep 2014, 23:26

Tarrel wrote:YouGov exit poll suggesting 54% no, 46% yes.

Well...it would say that, wouldn't it. ;-0)

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Sep 2014, 00:10

So it looks like a no vote.

Tomorrow the West Lothian question must be answered. No more will Scottish MPs vote on English matters.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Sep 2014, 01:02

You really fecking hate scottish people don't you?? I mean, let's not p!ss about here...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Sep 2014, 01:33

RenewableCandy wrote:You really fecking hate scottish people don't you?? I mean, let's not p!ss about here...

No I don't hate Scottish people. I dislike the nationalist leadership. Before this campaign started, there wasn't an anti-Scottish bone in my body.

First result just in, moments ago, and it is a massive win for the no campaign. A 54% no vote in a council yes expected to win.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Sep 2014, 01:45

Fascinating comment from Andrew Marr: this referendum was probably decided by that one poll last week that put yes ahead. It sent shockwaves through the unionists, and that is why the turnout is so high. That poll got the unionist vote out, and that has turned the result.

Salmond is finished.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Sep 2014, 02:01

The turnout was always going to be high, because of its being one of the few elections in which the result would make a real difference.

I think Salmond was planning on standing down whatever the upshot. He wanted this election: when it's done, so is his work. Also as Tarrel pointed out, "Yes" is about much more than Salmond.