Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

I feel that the situation is more serious than is widely believed.

IMHO waiting until the disease is widespread in the UK before taking whatever precautions you deem appropriate is likely to be too late.

At present, long life foods, bottled water, latex gloves, disinfectants and other useful supplies are all readily available both retail and wholesale.
Panic is however contagious* and with todays "just in time" business model, it takes only a small increase in demand to result in empty shelves and all out panic.

IMO it is already too late to prudently stock up anywhere that knows you. If things turn bad as quickly as they might, do you really want to be remembered as the "hoarder" who perhaps should be "made to share" ?

Time perhaps to visit a large supermarket not near your home or work, and pay with cash.

If TSHTF, it remains to be seen what action our government would take, they might do too little too late and allow panic, infection, and fear to run riot*
Or they might declare martial law and enforce strict rationing, curfews, prohibit movement etc.

Neither prospect is very appealing.

It is of course possible that I am being unduly alarmist, and that nothing much will happen in the UK (remember SARS, bird flue, pig flue etc) However most preps have a reasonable shelf life and are useful for other emergencies too.

* both puns intended :(
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

http://www.economist.com/news/science-a ... treatments
The reason Ebola is so deadly is that the virus is good at tamping down the innate immune response to viral infection, says Jonathan Ball, a professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham in Britain. Thus Ebola replicates unchecked before the immune system can adapt and mount a tailored response. Some people recover naturally. They are able to summon defences more speedily, and before their bodies are overcome with symptoms such as organ failure and haemorrhaging.
That explains quite a bit. It's why there's such a long gestation period with relatively few symptoms, and it's why when the symptoms kick in they are so severe. By the time your body overcomes the "tamping down", the virus is eating you alive.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

adam2 wrote:I feel that the situation is more serious than is widely believed.

IMHO waiting until the disease is widespread in the UK before taking whatever precautions you deem appropriate is likely to be too late.
I didn't say I'd wait that long. I said I'd wait until it was spreading in a western country.
It is of course possible that I am being unduly alarmist
I think you're being a bit premature. I don't disagree with you about the potential seriousness of this situation, just about the timescale before I run out of time to make that shopping trip.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Worry not, six months ago Debora MacKensie, writing in New Scientist, gave warning so all the world's governments have had plenty of time to prepare and take appropriate action.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... gious.html#.
madibe
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Post by madibe »

Interestingly the malaria season is just about to start in W Africa.

So question - can mosquito bites spread the Ebola Virus?

2nd point... Europe is just starting it's new academic year, with thousands of international students flying into the UK

3rd .... Europe is just moving into 'Flu Season'...

So how on earth do we know when someone is sick that it is not something more than just a bad cold?

It all seems to be coming together a bit too nicely.
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

maudibe wrote:Interestingly the malaria season is just about to start in W Africa.

So question - can mosquito bites spread the Ebola Virus?
There is no evidence to suggest they can.
So how on earth do we know when someone is sick that it is not something more than just a bad cold?
Universities, like buses, are tailor-made for spreading diseases. I'd certainly be more worried than I am if I had to frequent either.

However, I am guessing that the moment an ebola case was even suspected, let alone confirmed, the response would be extreme. In a university situation, the entire campus would be shut down instantly, and everybody told to stay at home for a month. All contacts would be traced. There would be no messing about.

I'm also expecting a complete ban on air travel from infected areas, sooner rather than later.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 13 Sep 2014, 12:17, edited 2 times in total.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

maudibe wrote:Interestingly the malaria season is just about to start in W Africa.

So question - can mosquito bites spread the Ebola Virus?

2nd point... Europe is just starting it's new academic year, with thousands of international students flying into the UK

3rd .... Europe is just moving into 'Flu Season'...

So how on earth do we know when someone is sick that it is not something more than just a bad cold?

It all seems to be coming together a bit too nicely.
I don't think that mosquito bites can spread ebola, though I would not care to put this to the test.
If a mosquito bit an infected person and then bit a not infected person, then the disease could spread, BUT IIRC mosquitos don't repeatedly bite different victims, they take single feed of blood before breeding and dying.

The other points made are however worrying.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

adam2 wrote:[

I don't think that mosquito bites can spread ebola, though I would not care to put this to the test.
If a mosquito bit an infected person and then bit a not infected person, then the disease could spread, BUT IIRC mosquitos don't repeatedly bite different victims, they take single feed of blood before breeding and dying.

The other points made are however worrying.
Then how do they spread yellow fever , equine encephalitis and malaria :?:
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

vtsnowedin wrote:
adam2 wrote:[

I don't think that mosquito bites can spread ebola, though I would not care to put this to the test.
If a mosquito bit an infected person and then bit a not infected person, then the disease could spread, BUT IIRC mosquitos don't repeatedly bite different victims, they take single feed of blood before breeding and dying.

The other points made are however worrying.
Then how do they spread yellow fever , equine encephalitis and malaria :?:
Depends on the precise biology of the virus. The parasite that causes malaria has evolved to live inside a mosquito. It's not an accidental thing, but an evolved adaptation - part of its life cycle. The same goes for many other parasites, some of which have multiple hosts and up to 7 stages in their lifecycles.

A lot of viruses do not survive for very long outside of the specific environment they are adapted to live in.

That said, we have so little information on ebola in humans that the fact there is no evidence that it can be transmitted by insects should not be taken as positive evidence that it can't be. In this case, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

adam2 wrote:
maudibe wrote:Interestingly the malaria season is just about to start in W Africa.

So question - can mosquito bites spread the Ebola Virus?

2nd point... Europe is just starting it's new academic year, with thousands of international students flying into the UK

3rd .... Europe is just moving into 'Flu Season'...

So how on earth do we know when someone is sick that it is not something more than just a bad cold?

It all seems to be coming together a bit too nicely.
I don't think that mosquito bites can spread ebola, though I would not care to put this to the test.
If a mosquito bit an infected person and then bit a not infected person, then the disease could spread, BUT IIRC mosquitos don't repeatedly bite different victims, they take single feed of blood before breeding and dying.
If that was true then how could they spread malaria?
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

vtsnowedin wrote:
adam2 wrote:[

I don't think that mosquito bites can spread ebola, though I would not care to put this to the test.
If a mosquito bit an infected person and then bit a not infected person, then the disease could spread, BUT IIRC mosquitos don't repeatedly bite different victims, they take single feed of blood before breeding and dying.

The other points made are however worrying.
Then how do they spread yellow fever , equine encephalitis and malaria :?:
It is a while since I studied biology, but I think that the above diseases are spread by the mosquito itself being infected, rather than by mosquitos spreading it from an infected human.
A comparison would be rabies from a dog bite, the dog has the disease itself and does not have to bite an infected human first.

I do stand to be corrected on this. Anyone know for certain if mosquitos bite different victims in turn, which could spread ebola, or bite just once before dying, which would not spread the illness.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

adam2 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
adam2 wrote:[

I don't think that mosquito bites can spread ebola, though I would not care to put this to the test.
If a mosquito bit an infected person and then bit a not infected person, then the disease could spread, BUT IIRC mosquitos don't repeatedly bite different victims, they take single feed of blood before breeding and dying.

The other points made are however worrying.
Then how do they spread yellow fever , equine encephalitis and malaria :?:
It is a while since I studied biology, but I think that the above diseases are spread by the mosquito itself being infected, rather than by mosquitos spreading it from an infected human.
A comparison would be rabies from a dog bite, the dog has the disease itself and does not have to bite an infected human first.

I do stand to be corrected on this. Anyone know for certain if mosquitos bite different victims in turn, which could spread ebola, or bite just once before dying, which would not spread the illness.
http://npic.orst.edu/pest/mosquito/diseases.html
Typically, the diseases are caused by viruses or tiny parasites. For example, a mosquito that bites an infected human or animal can pick up a virus along with the blood meal. The mosquito and virus do not harm one another but the virus reproduces inside the mosquito. Later, the mosquito can pass the viruses to other humans when biting them.
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Post by fuzzy »

Then there's gnats, flies and ticks.
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Post by madibe »

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opini ... .html?_r=1

So... it is being said... air transmission...

But still no mention about seasonal flu or malaria, which I think is the next big threat, unless some one knows better.
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Post by madibe »

Mathematical model of Ebola spread

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GXAxnfiq8
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