Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Sep 2014, 15:49

Zero hour jobs would disappear pretty damned sharp if half us went into the night. Arguably, the Black Death was the best thing to happen to the medieval peasantry since it is what finally did for the Saxon/Norman caste system. Though the class system has pertained and the direct descendants of the Bastard and his men still own shit loads of land in this country.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Sep 2014, 16:25

I can find no recent report of ebola in Saudi Arabia. A man who died back in August did not have ebola.

I suspect it will spread to some other large city, maybe somewhere in India, from a migrant worker returning home. It will be somewhere no-one is looking, where death from malaria or Lhasa fever is common, and get a hold before it is recognised for what it is.

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 12 Sep 2014, 16:31

A woman flying *into* Lagos from Morocco has been tested positive.

http://www.scenereleases.eu/woman-arriv ... for-ebola/

So... she tried to circumvent quarantine borders by flying to Morocco then onto Lagos. Nice one. Who has she infected in Morocco during her travels?

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 12 Sep 2014, 16:36

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/mi ... irus-.html

Suspected...

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 12 Sep 2014, 16:40

The WHO can't even be bothered to publish official numbers now[supposed to be here: http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/ ].

That doesn't give much confidence:

2400 dead sort of slipped out:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014 ... eaths.html

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 12 Sep 2014, 16:44

maudibe wrote:A woman flying *into* Lagos from Morocco has been tested positive.

http://www.scenereleases.eu/woman-arriv ... for-ebola/

So... she tried to circumvent quarantine borders by flying to Morocco then onto Lagos. Nice one. Who has she infected in Morocco during her travels?

False alarm. This time...

http://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/sa-wom ... BMUXtJ0xjp

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Sep 2014, 17:15

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/mi ... irus-.html

Suspected...

That was dated 6th August. Tests proved negative.

There are several false alarms each day now.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 12 Sep 2014, 20:56

And hundreds of new cases, soon to be thousands - if not already. OBVIOUSLY (!!!) it is only a matter of when not if this spreads worldwide.

Get a grip people this is a pandemic (in the early stages) and it is out of control. Anybody who thinks otherwise is in denial....... now where have I heard this before?!

To answer Adams question raised earlier in the thread, I think it is time to stock up on water, tinned and dried food supplies and make arrangements for the possibility of staying at home for a prolonged period - if it starts to spread in your area/region. Staying away from other people for many weeks, may become the safest option at some future point, depending on the level of spread that occurs.

Standuble · Post by **Standuble** » 12 Sep 2014, 21:21

I agree with Steve about the Black Death. For example a 90-95% world death rate from this is a chilling prospect but the population left over (if sufficiently organised and population controls implemented) could stretch out existing fossil fuels and other resources for centuries or at the very least render the risk of a sudden die off from Peak Oil moot.

I did take a look at the records for the outbreak on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_viru ... est_Africa and it was quite shocking. It looks like its currently moving at a rate of approximately 1000 new cases a week. That doesn't include those they don't know about and any dead from the Congo strain. If that figure were to double to 2000 new cases a week I can start to see the whole effort to contain and cure the outbreak completely implode in on itself.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 12 Sep 2014, 21:41

Standuble wrote:If that figure were to double to 2000 new cases a week I can start to see the whole effort to contain and cure the outbreak completely implode in on itself.

Already happened. Check back in mid October, as the graphs chap I referenced on the previous page reckons a 29 day doubling rate.

There should be an explosion of cases in Monrovia, specifically the West Point slum, because of the 'liberation' of the clinic last month. Crazy events like that would cause statistical outliers.

The asymptomatic cases remain at large for 21 days. The symptomatic are also hidden - literally - as there are no beds anyway. So the reported figures are likely completely divorced from the reality.

Standuble · Post by **Standuble** » 12 Sep 2014, 21:57

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
Standuble wrote:If that figure were to double to 2000 new cases a week I can start to see the whole effort to contain and cure the outbreak completely implode in on itself.
Already happened. Check back in mid October, as the graphs chap I referenced on the previous page reckons a 29 day doubling rate.

There should be an explosion of cases in Monrovia, specifically the West Point slum, because of the 'liberation' of the clinic last month. Crazy events like that would cause statistical outliers.

The asymptomatic cases remain at large for 21 days. The symptomatic are also hidden - literally - as there are no beds anyway. So the reported figures are likely completely divorced from the reality.

I agree with that. All we need now is either for those African students to take it to America or Europe or an unknowing infected Chinese person pulling out of an outbreak country causing an outbreak in China and its possible we will never know the total dead.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Sep 2014, 22:07

snow hope wrote:And hundreds of new cases, soon to be thousands - if not already. OBVIOUSLY (!!!) it is only a matter of when not if this spreads worldwide.

It's not that simple. All diseases are not equal. It is now inevitable (IMO) that it will spread to all of the other parts of the world where there is no decent healthcare system, or at least no such system for the poor. It is not, yet, a foregone conclusion that it will become a serious threat in the developed world. It might, but it might not.

To answer Adams question raised earlier in the thread, I think it is time to stock up on water, tinned and dried food supplies and make arrangements for the possibility of staying at home for a prolonged period - if it starts to spread in your area/region. Staying away from other people for many weeks, may become the safest option at some future point, depending on the level of spread that occurs.

When it starts spreading, uncontained, in a western country, then I'll start thinking about this stuff.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Sep 2014, 22:10

Standuble wrote: I did take a look at the records for the outbreak on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_viru ... est_Africa and it was quite shocking. It looks like its currently moving at a rate of approximately 1000 new cases a week. That doesn't include those they don't know about and any dead from the Congo strain. If that figure were to double to 2000 new cases a week I can start to see the whole effort to contain and cure the outbreak completely implode in on itself.

I agree with MMM. Already happened. Containing this disease (in Africa) requires all suspected cases to be put in isolation units, and all their contacts traced and monitored. But the isolation units are overflowing and people known to be infected are being turned away. That is game over for "the whole effort to contain...the outbreak".

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 12 Sep 2014, 22:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:
snow hope wrote:And hundreds of new cases, soon to be thousands - if not already. OBVIOUSLY (!!!) it is only a matter of when not if this spreads worldwide.
It's not that simple. All diseases are not equal. It is now inevitable (IMO) that it will spread to all of the other parts of the world where there is no decent healthcare system, or at least no such system for the poor. It is not, yet, a foregone conclusion that it will become a serious threat in the developed world. It might, but it might not.

To answer Adams question raised earlier in the thread, I think it is time to stock up on water, tinned and dried food supplies and make arrangements for the possibility of staying at home for a prolonged period - if it starts to spread in your area/region. Staying away from other people for many weeks, may become the safest option at some future point, depending on the level of spread that occurs.
When it starts spreading, uncontained, in a western country, then I'll start thinking about this stuff.

Who is going to tell us when there are 2/10/200 UK EBV cases..? The BBC??

I doubt if the UK health service could handle more than 100 safely. How many real hospitals are there? With a secure level 4 bio room? The clown who flies here like Sawyer did to Lagos doesn't give a damn about other peoples welfare. What if General Butt Naked of Liberia - the one who eats raw childrens hearts to become invincible, and is now a holy roller - suppose he decides to join all the other wackjobs in London.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Sep 2014, 22:52

fuzzy wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
snow hope wrote:And hundreds of new cases, soon to be thousands - if not already. OBVIOUSLY (!!!) it is only a matter of when not if this spreads worldwide.
It's not that simple. All diseases are not equal. It is now inevitable (IMO) that it will spread to all of the other parts of the world where there is no decent healthcare system, or at least no such system for the poor. It is not, yet, a foregone conclusion that it will become a serious threat in the developed world. It might, but it might not.

To answer Adams question raised earlier in the thread, I think it is time to stock up on water, tinned and dried food supplies and make arrangements for the possibility of staying at home for a prolonged period - if it starts to spread in your area/region. Staying away from other people for many weeks, may become the safest option at some future point, depending on the level of spread that occurs.
When it starts spreading, uncontained, in a western country, then I'll start thinking about this stuff.
Who is going to tell us when there are 2/10/200 UK EBV cases..? The BBC??

I doubt if the UK health service could handle more than 100 safely. How many real hospitals are there? With a secure level 4 bio room? The clown who flies here like Sawyer did to Lagos doesn't give a damn about other peoples welfare. What if General Butt Naked of Liberia - the one who eats raw childrens hearts to become invincible, and is now a holy roller - suppose he decides to join all the other wackjobs in London.

That's London. I live in Hastings.

I'm not discounting the possibility it could happen, I just think it is a bit premature to be filling my wardrobe with spaghetti and rice just yet.

I don't think the MSM/BBC would try to hide the arrival of ebola in the UK. Would make a great headline and sell lots of newspapers.

I'm watching it closely. It really doesn't take long to nip to Asda and stock up if and when I feel threatened. We aren't going to go from "first confirmed case in Europe" to "Asda in Silverhill, Hastings has to close because the shelves have been stripped by terrified people."