Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

[UndercoverElephant]

big numbers now being posted - estimates of 100,000 to 270,000 by the end of the year.

Also an unrelated (?) breakout in the Congo with 35 infected.

Shit.

Shit indeed. Although I'm still not convinced these estimates actually mean much. I'd ask is that infections or deaths, but it's almost irrelevant. 100,000 cases of ebola equates to an epidemic that is totally out of control, and because it has never happened before we have no way of knowing what happens after that. Where does it stop? When does the infection rate stop increasing? Are we going to see the whole of sub-saharan Africa quarantined? Would that be effective in stopping it from getting out of Africa and into other "backwards" parts of the world, or once it is established in Africa is it inevitable that it is going to spread further afield? Are we going to see ebola in the Indian and Chinese megacities? In south america? Is there going to be long-term, widespread disruption to international travel?

Nobody knows, but I do know that even 270,000 is a drop in the ocean compared to the number of people on this planet living in places at least as backwards, or only marginally less so, than the African countries currently affected. We're talking hundreds of millions.

[vtsnowedin]

big numbers now being posted - estimates of 100,000 to 270,000 by the end of the year.

Also an unrelated (?) breakout in the Congo with 35 infected.

Shit.

Shit indeed. Although I'm still not convinced these estimates actually mean much. I'd ask is that infections or deaths, but it's almost irrelevant. 100,000 cases of ebola equates to an epidemic that is totally out of control, and because it has never happened before we have no way of knowing what happens after that. Where does it stop? When does the infection rate stop increasing? Are we going to see the whole of sub-saharan Africa quarantined? Would that be effective in stopping it from getting out of Africa and into other "backwards" parts of the world, or once it is established in Africa is it inevitable that it is going to spread further afield? Are we going to see ebola in the Indian and Chinese megacities? In south america? Is there going to be long-term, widespread disruption to international travel?

Nobody knows, but I do know that even 270,000 is a drop in the ocean compared to the number of people on this planet living in places at least as backwards, or only marginally less so, than the African countries currently affected. We're talking hundreds of millions.

Considering the disruption to the existing medical facilities and staffing added to the usual deaths due to malaria and other local diseases would you rule out a total extra deaths this year of over a billion?

[UndercoverElephant]

big numbers now being posted - estimates of 100,000 to 270,000 by the end of the year.

Also an unrelated (?) breakout in the Congo with 35 infected.

Shit.

Shit indeed. Although I'm still not convinced these estimates actually mean much. I'd ask is that infections or deaths, but it's almost irrelevant. 100,000 cases of ebola equates to an epidemic that is totally out of control, and because it has never happened before we have no way of knowing what happens after that. Where does it stop? When does the infection rate stop increasing? Are we going to see the whole of sub-saharan Africa quarantined? Would that be effective in stopping it from getting out of Africa and into other "backwards" parts of the world, or once it is established in Africa is it inevitable that it is going to spread further afield? Are we going to see ebola in the Indian and Chinese megacities? In south america? Is there going to be long-term, widespread disruption to international travel?

Nobody knows, but I do know that even 270,000 is a drop in the ocean compared to the number of people on this planet living in places at least as backwards, or only marginally less so, than the African countries currently affected. We're talking hundreds of millions.

Considering the disruption to the existing medical facilities and staffing added to the usual deaths due to malaria and other local diseases would you rule out a total extra deaths this year of over a billion?

It's not spreading that fast. I wouldn't rule out a total of 1 billion extra deaths in the next 5 years though. Were that to happen then the global death rate would exceed the birth rate for the first time in a very long time.

[adam2]

Official death toll now said to be near 2,000 (source BBC world service news)

[fuzzy]

The bleakest scenario from a scientist yet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opini ... 22%7D&_r=0

[PS_RalphW]

currently the birth rate exceeds the death rate by about 80 million a year.

A billion over 5 years is 200 million a year, leading to a population decline of 120 million a year. In other words, it will set population into a decline 50% faster than it is currently growing.

A billion people is the current population of Africa.

When put in those terms, it really shows how out of control the human population is, and how much excess death it will take to bring it back under control.

If Ebola did kill a billion of the poorest people on earth, it might delay collapse from limits to growth by a decade. More likely, it would trigger collapse from social chaos.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

http://www.geert.io/exponential-growth-of-ebola.html

At least we PowerSwitchers understand the exponential function...

[biffvernon]

I heard someone from Médecins Sans Frontières on the radio this morning saying that none of their workers had been infected, the implication being that with careful care the disease can be dealt with safely.

But one has to read this article: http://www.msf.org/article/liberia-some ... ent-centre

[UndercoverElephant]

But one has to read this article: http://www.msf.org/article/liberia-some ... ent-centre

Compare to the previous response to ebola outbreaks: quarantining remote villages and tracing all possible contacts. Now they're turning away dying, infectious people, and it's happening in cities.

That is a description of a war that is already lost. This epidemic cannot be controlled now, and it doesn't matter how much resources are thrown at it from afar.

[UndercoverElephant]

The bleakest scenario from a scientist yet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opini ... 22%7D&_r=0

Well, he thinks it might become airborne. I guess it is possible. Either way, I agree with him that we're looking at something that is likely to alter the course of human history. It's that big.

[Little John]

On reflection, I think right now might be a good time to stock up on dried foods and sterilising chemicals, gloves, masks etc. Unless Africa is fully quarantined, this will get out into the rest of the world sooner or later.

[UndercoverElephant]

If Ebola did kill a billion of the poorest people on earth, it might delay collapse from limits to growth by a decade. More likely, it would trigger collapse from social chaos.

It should also be remembered that we depend on those parts of the world for resources - food, metal ores, fossil fuels... In other words, it would be trade chaos as well as social chaos.

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.geert.io/exponential-growth-of-ebola.html

At least we PowerSwitchers understand the exponential function...

So the question is when does it stop growing exponentially, but we can't answer it because we do not know how the virus is going to mutate. As things stand, I still believe it would be controllable in the developed world. But that could change if the virus changes.

[adam2]

On reflection, I think right now might be a good time to stock up on dried foods and sterilising chemicals, gloves, masks etc. Unless Africa is fully quarantined, this will get out into the rest of the world sooner or later.

Yes.
Perhaps surprisingly, these items do not seem to be in short supply as yet in the UK.
A fleabay search for chlorine tablets, latex gloves, isolation gowns, masks and related supplies seems to suggest ready availability of these items.

I also find it surprising that no panic buying of food is yet noticeable, AFAIK, unless anyone has noticed otherwise ?

[Mean Mr Mustard]

On reflection, I think right now might be a good time to stock up on dried foods and sterilising chemicals, gloves, masks etc. Unless Africa is fully quarantined, this will get out into the rest of the world sooner or later.

There's just been a fatality in Saudi Arabia - they had been in Liberia.
With an asymptomatic period of 21 days, there may be several index cases walking about in uninfected areas and big cities.

Curious that the medics want air links reinstated into the hot zones - to aid their own logistics. Incoming air freight, offloaded by aircrew in isolation from locals, and no outgoing airline traffic would seem to be a more sensible policy.

Stocking up on goods in this Just in Time industrial society is common sense for any number of reasons, but if this took hold in Europe, there are so many single points of failure out there it would be futile against any massive pandemic. Probably half of us would survive to take over the zero hours jobs made vacant - so it's not all bad.