Interesting article from Ambrose on how secessionist movements will be much stronger if the Scots really do vote yes in a weeks time.Europe is disintegrating. Two large and ancient kingdoms are near the point of rupture as Spain follows Britain into constitutional crisis, joined like Siamese twins.
The post-Habsburg order further east is suddenly prey to a corrosive notion that settled borders are up for grabs. "Problems frozen for decades are warming up again," said Giles Merritt, from Friends of Europe in Brussels.
The best we can hope for - should tribalism prevail - is German political hegemony in Europe. The German people so far remain a bastion of rationalism, holding together as others tear themselves apart. The French are too paralysed by economic depression and the collapse of the Hollande presidency to play any serious role.
The far worse outcome is that even Germany succumbs to centripetal forces, leaving Europe bereft of coherent leadership, a parochial patchwork, wallowing in victimhood and decline, defenceless against a revanchist Russia that plays by different rules.
Former Nato chief Lord Robertson warns that a British break-up is doubly dangerous, setting off "Balkanisation" dominoes across Europe, and amounting to a body blow for global security at a time when the Middle East is out of control and China is testing its power in Asian waters.
He warns that the residual UK would be distracted for years by messy divorce, a diminished power, grappling with constitutional wreckage, likely to face a resurgence of Ulster's demons. Scotland's refusal to allow nuclear weapons on its soil means that no US warship would be able to dock in Scottish ports, while its withdrawal from all power projection overseas would push British fighting capability below the point of critical mass.
"The world has not yet caught up with the full and dramatic implications of what is going on. For the second military power in the West to shatter would be cataclysmic in geopolitical terms. Nobody should underestimate the effect this would have on existing global balances,” he said.
Europe has largely disarmed already. While America spends $76,000 per soldier each year, EU states are down to $18,000, largely earmarked for pay and pensions, according to the Institute for Statecraft. Almost nothing is being spent on new equipment. Europe has slashed defence budgets by $70bn over the past two years even as Russia blitzes $600bn on war-fighting capabilities by 2020 and turns itself into a militarised state, a Sparta with nuclear weapons.
A portrait of Peter the Great hangs above the desk of Russia's Vladimir Putin. One might conclude that Mr Putin will not rest until he has avenged the post-Soviet losses of Narva, Riga and Poltava, the triple victory sites of that mercurial Tsar. The first two lie across the EU line in the Baltics, the latter deep within Ukraine.
The Scottish precedent threatens - or promises, depending on your view - to set off a chain reaction. "If the Scots votes Yes, it will be an earthquake in Spain," said Quim Aranda, from the Catalan newspaper Punt Avui.
Madrid has declared Catalonia's secession to be illegal, if not treason. Premier Mariano Rajoy has resorted to court action to stop Catalonia's 7.5m people - the richer part of Spain - holding a pre-referendum vote for independence on November 9. Barcelona is already covered with posters calling for civil disobedience, some evoking Martin Luther King, some more belligerent.
There is a hard edge to this dispute, with echoes of the Civil War. One serving military officer has openly spoken of "1936", warning Catalan separatists not to awaken the "sleeping lion". The association of retired army officers has called for treason trials in military courts for anybody promoting the break-up of Spain, a threat since disavowed by the current high command.
Rioja's premier, Pedro Sanz from the ruling Partido Popular, seemed to threaten a massacre, warning Catalans that they "will die" (morirán) if they persist in playing with fire. That will not stop 1m or more taking to the streets this week for Catalonia's "Diada", the national day, evoking the fall of Barcelona to the Bourbons in 1714.
"If the Scots and Catalans go, the Flemish will follow. The precedent creates so much pressure," says Paul Belien, a Belgian author and Flemish nationalist. The separatist Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie is the biggest party in the Flemish parliament.
I for one will find it very interesting, go on Scotland, VOTE YES!!!
