Scotland Watch

[vtsnowedin]

If I were a Scotsman I would probably vote Yes. The UK is facing a whole raft of problems, social, economic, financial, cultural, ethnic etc. If I were a Scot then I would be happy to face the unknowns of independence and have fewer of the above problems.

It looks like the Scottish energy could be supplied by renewables a lot easier than the rest of the UK could with its higher population density. I am not sure how Scotland could manage foodwise as the usable agricultural land could be minimal.

I note that there is a "Western HVDC Link" being constructed to supply the rest of the UK with renewable energy from Scotland so that should be good for their economy.

From what I can see the main issues for an independent Scotland would be the following...
- inability to raise financing in international markets especially if it does not share the UK national debt
- newly independent government going on a spending bender with money it does not have
- declining (but still significant) North Sea Oil reserves and revenues.
- problems getting membership of the EU. They will probably get stiffed and be forced to pay a membership fee. i.e. be a net positive contributor to the EU funding.
- apportionment of the UK national debt.
- racism towards non-Scottish 'minorities'
- reliance of imported food
- how to raise taxes and maintain generous welfare system

So in short I say to the Scots. Take a leap of faith and do it.

Very interesting list you have there. I think the North Sea oil and gas is the most troubling. I doubt if the rest of the UK can afford to let a single barrel go.
A truly independent Scotland would have troubles aplenty but I would not bet against them with or without the North Sea oil.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think the North Sea oil and gas is the most troubling. I doubt if the rest of the UK can afford to let a single barrel go.

Most of it has already gone.

A truly independent Scotland would have troubles aplenty but I would not bet against them with or without the North Sea oil.

I would. The Yes campaign hasn't got a clue. They've had decades to prepare for this moment, and yet they haven't even sorted the most basic issues out. They don't have a workable plan for what currency they would use, they don't have a workable plan for continued EU membership, they don't have a workable defence policy and they don't have a workable intelligence policy. You know...those little things that don't matter much.

[bigjim]

I think the time for independence was the 70s when the oil was coming on stream- they would have been very wealthy by now, like the Norwegians!

[RenewableCandy]

"They do say" that Spain is going to do its level best to block Scottish membership of the EU. They don't want the Catalans to get ideas...

[biffvernon]

Funny how some folk supporting the 'No Borders' campaign seeks to not have a border between Berwickshire and Northumbria but wish to retain a border between Kent and Pa-de-Calais.

Meanwhile, I went to an art exhibition yesterday in Norwich called Monument. One of the works involved 193 flags, being the national flags of the 193 nations, each with the correct area of the various colours but with the patterns rearranged into a military camouflage design.

Société réaliste est une coopérative artistique fondée par Ferenc Grof (1972) et Jean-Baptiste Naudy (1982).

Le travail de Société Réaliste s'articule autour de l'appropriation et du détournement d'outils de communications des figures de pouvoir (cartes,emblèmes,enseignes,architectures...). Par des systèmes de confrontations symboliques, leur travail affirme un regard critique sans jamais afficher une critique frontalement dénonciatrice.

En opérant de subtils rapprochements, des extrapolations, des interprétations statistiques ou des surimpressions, leurs oeuvres donnent à voir des évolutions historiques, des «tendances» et produisent un ensemble d'outils de lisibilité du
monde contemporain.

Realistic society is an artistic cooperative founded by Ferenc Grof (1972) and Jean-Baptiste Naudy (1982).

Social Realist work focuses on the appropriation and misuse of communication tools to figures (maps, emblems, signs, architecture ...). By systems of symbolic confrontation, says their work critically without ever displaying a critical frontally whistleblower.

By operating subtle reconciliations, extrapolations, statistical interpretations or overlays, see their works give historical developments, "trends" and produce a set of tools for readability
contemporary world.

[Tarrel]

Looks like the "Better Together" camp are getting rattled. They've now changed their slogan to "No (thanks)".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27818779

(ETA; maybe that's what they have done with JKR's million pounds.)

[UndercoverElephant]

"They do say" that Spain is going to do its level best to block Scottish membership of the EU. They don't want the Catalans to get ideas...

Spain has an outright veto on Scottish membership. If Spain says no, Scotland stays out. And Scotland as nothing to offer Spain as a bargaining chip.

[Tarrel]

"They do say" that Spain is going to do its level best to block Scottish membership of the EU. They don't want the Catalans to get ideas...

Spain has an outright veto on Scottish membership. If Spain says no, Scotland stays out. And Scotland as nothing to offer Spain as a bargaining chip.

So, they say "no", and kiss goodbye to their fishing quotas in Scottish waters, along with those of all the other EU members.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/murray-rob ... -1-3222594

Also, IMHO, if Spain says "no" it will remind the Catalans of what a heavy-handed approach their government is taking, and galvanise them even more into wanting independence.

With the EU being so large, and with the existence of a veto, the denial of Scottish membership has to be a possibility. Not everyone can be relied upon to vote in the collective EU interest. But, if the EU had any "collective sense", it would welcome Scotland, if only for access to its natural resources.

Over the last few decades, with access to abundant, cheap energy, we seem to have lost sight of the importance of natural resources, prioritising instead things such as intellectual capital, connectivity and other "soft" resources. However, as natural resources become more scarce, I think they will once again figure very strongly in decisions such as who should be allowed into the EU.

[peaceful_life]

"They do say" that Spain is going to do its level best to block Scottish membership of the EU. They don't want the Catalans to get ideas...

Spain has an outright veto on Scottish membership. If Spain says no, Scotland stays out. And Scotland as nothing to offer Spain as a bargaining chip.

The EU isn't the only option for Scotland, besides...Spain has it's own internal questions being asked.
Your assertions are confident, but certainly limited and in all probability, wrong.

[UndercoverElephant]

"They do say" that Spain is going to do its level best to block Scottish membership of the EU. They don't want the Catalans to get ideas...

Spain has an outright veto on Scottish membership. If Spain says no, Scotland stays out. And Scotland as nothing to offer Spain as a bargaining chip.

So, they say "no", and kiss goodbye to their fishing quotas in Scottish waters, along with those of all the other EU members.

Yes. But put yourself in the Spanish position - they are effectively choosing between losing the right to fish in Scottish waters or risking the loss of a significant chunk of its own territory.

Also, IMHO, if Spain says "no" it will remind the Catalans of what a heavy-handed approach their government is taking, and galvanise them even more into wanting independence.

Maybe, but wanting it doesn't equate to getting it.

With the EU being so large, and with the existence of a veto, the denial of Scottish membership has to be a possibility. Not everyone can be relied upon to vote in the collective EU interest. But, if the EU had any "collective sense", it would welcome Scotland, if only for access to its natural resources.

Over the last few decades, with access to abundant, cheap energy, we seem to have lost sight of the importance of natural resources, prioritising instead things such as intellectual capital, connectivity and other "soft" resources. However, as natural resources become more scarce, I think they will once again figure very strongly in decisions such as who should be allowed into the EU.

Maybe, but personally I think that the Catalan/Basque question will trump everything else from the Spanish point of view.

[UndercoverElephant]

"They do say" that Spain is going to do its level best to block Scottish membership of the EU. They don't want the Catalans to get ideas...

Spain has an outright veto on Scottish membership. If Spain says no, Scotland stays out. And Scotland as nothing to offer Spain as a bargaining chip.

The EU isn't the only option for Scotland, besides...Spain has it's own internal questions being asked.
Your assertions are confident, but certainly limited and in all probability, wrong.

The assertion that Spain has a veto is not wrong. Whether or not it would use that veto is obviously debatable.

[Tarrel]

Maybe, but wanting it doesn't equate to getting it.

Yes, but I was thinking more about the motivation of the Spanish government, i.e. do they placate or upset the "masses" back home based on their response to Scotland's membership application.

Maybe, but personally I think that the Catalan/Basque question will trump everything else from the Spanish point of view.

This is a problem generally with the EU. At the end of the day, member states tend to look after their national interests. If proposed EU action coincides with that national interest, then fine. If it doesn't, there's a problem. The bigger the EU gets, the more national interests there are to accommodate.

I think with these international institutions, we need to "s**t or get off the pot". We either accept that there is a benefit to thinking and acting collectively, and therefore eliminate obstructive mechanisms like vetoes, or we go back to bilateral and multilateral bargaining between autonomous states. UN is the same. Think what the UN could have achieved over the years if it wasn't for the "first among equals" permanent members of the Security Council being able to veto everything.

[peaceful_life]

Spain has an outright veto on Scottish membership. If Spain says no, Scotland stays out. And Scotland as nothing to offer Spain as a bargaining chip.

The EU isn't the only option for Scotland, besides...Spain has it's own internal questions being asked.
Your assertions are confident, but certainly limited and in all probability, wrong.

The assertion that Spain has a veto is not wrong. Whether or not it would use that veto is obviously debatable.

Sure, but I was referring to the plural of your assertions on Scottish independence thus far, EU membership, or not, as the case may be, is just bit-part of that conversation, as is the TTIP, as are other trade options and federations, or not, as the case may be.

[Snail]

The Mighty Salmond is beating Peewee Darling into a bloody pulp.

He's deciding the undecideds.

Even the audience is getting stuck in!

[frank_begbie]

As with a lot of things, propaganda and the fear factor will win the day.

And Westminster will be very relieved.