Ukraine Watch...

[vtsnowedin]

MH17, the plot thickens

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... l?spref=fb

More here and here.

I'm not buying it. if you look at the one photo posted with the article it doesn't agree with what he is trying to assert. For one thing the author mixes up mm and caliber. A 30 caliber round is 0.308 inches in diameter and a 30 mm round is just that 30mm in diameter or 1.1811 inches.
30mm does happen to be the size of cannon on the Mig-29 flown by both the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces. The picture does show a couple of holes made by a round projectile but not large enough to be made by 30-mm cannon fire. Also it shows no indication of any metal being bent outward. The idea that two jets would fire at the same piece of metal from opposite sides of an aircraft while it is traveling at 550mph and hit it at about the same time is something only a movie studio could produce.
A much more believable analysis is here with with the same picture plus others shown in context. You can see that a missile contacting the side of the cockpit and exploding would be carried inside the cockpit while the explosion is happening so shrapnel and debris of all sizes would be traveling in all directions.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/mh17-e ... -etc.3997/

[3rdRock]

More fuel on the fire.

The UK and US governments have warned Russia not to use humanitarian assistance as a pretext for sending troops into eastern Ukraine.

Any such intervention would be "completely unacceptable and "viewed as an invasion of Ukraine", said the US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28715467

[Mr. Fox]

Interesting read (via cluborlov):

The following report examines the circumstance surrounding the loss of the 298 lives aboard Malaysian Airways flight MH17. This work was undertaken in response to the current fact free public discourse coupled with the strident allegations increasingly reminiscent of the clamour for conflict that lead to WWI. It is hoped that a formal review of the known facts may serve to undermine any belligerent attempt to provoke a wider war.

Section 1 examines what is known about the Buk M­1. Section 2 reports factual data regarding the crash of MH17. Section 3 considers the possibility of the shoot down being the responsibility of rebel forces operating on behalf of the Donetsk Peoples Republic. Section 4 examines the possibility of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) being responsible for the shoot down. Section 5 provides a speculative interpretation of events surrounding the shoot down.

This report is based on information publicly available on August 1st 2014. As new information is released this report may need to be updated. It is anticipated that making this report available for public review will result in both suggestions for improvement and / or the identification of critical
gaps in the factual record.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/61qa99yt6 ... _and_2.pdf (12mb pdf)

[another_exlurker]

MH17, the plot thickens

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... l?spref=fb

More here and here.

I'm not buying it. if you look at the one photo posted with the article it doesn't agree with what he is trying to assert. For one thing the author mixes up mm and caliber. A 30 caliber round is 0.308 inches in diameter and a 30 mm round is just that 30mm in diameter or 1.1811 inches.
30mm does happen to be the size of cannon on the Mig-29 flown by both the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces. The picture does show a couple of holes made by a round projectile but not large enough to be made by 30-mm cannon fire. Also it shows no indication of any metal being bent outward. The idea that two jets would fire at the same piece of metal from opposite sides of an aircraft while it is traveling at 550mph and hit it at about the same time is something only a movie studio could produce.
A much more believable analysis is here with with the same picture plus others shown in context. You can see that a missile contacting the side of the cockpit and exploding would be carried inside the cockpit while the explosion is happening so shrapnel and debris of all sizes would be traveling in all directions.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/mh17-e ... -etc.3997/

Yet it corroborates this:

Parry also cited a July 29 Canadian Broadcasting Corporation interview with Michael Bociurkiw, one of the first Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) investigators to arrive at the scene of the disaster, near Donetsk.

(From the article biffvernon linked to).

And by-the-way, the SU-25s didn't have to fire simultaneously, they just had to fire from behind and at the same target, matching speed with said target once in cannon range. It's not difficult for a skilled pilot to achieve and is one of the basic maneuvers for taking down an already wounded transport plane (which is effectively what a 777 is).

However, none of us are experts in this field. What the investigators need to find are the fragments of missile (balls or flachettes) to determine what type of missile was used and any expended rounds from SU-25 cannons (if present).

Until then, all is speculation about what brought MH-17 down.

[another_exlurker]

More fuel on the fire.

The UK and US governments have warned Russia not to use humanitarian assistance as a pretext for sending troops into eastern Ukraine.

Any such intervention would be "completely unacceptable and "viewed as an invasion of Ukraine", said the US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28715467

Oh for F--k's sake. Really???

Someone really wants to start a war.

[vtsnowedin]

And by-the-way, the SU-25s didn't have to fire simultaneously, they just had to fire from behind and at the same target, matching speed with said target once in cannon range. It's not difficult for a skilled pilot to achieve and is one of the basic maneuvers for taking down an already wounded transport plane (which is effectively what a 777 is).

By the way the SU-25s service ceiling is 23,000 feet clean and 16,000 ft with max weapons. So to hit a 777 flying at 33,000 they would have to shoot up almost two miles. I don't even know if a 30 mm cannon round will fly up 10,000 feet if fired straight up. Figuring the lead on that goose would be quite a shot indeed. Why anybody would need to finish off a thin skinned passenger aircraft with it's nose blow off is another absurdity. One hole is more then enough. People are really grasping at straws here.

[Mr. Fox]

Interestingly, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed the max altitude of the SU-25 as 10km (33,000ft) "for short periods of time":

the head of the Main Operations Directorate of the HQ of Russia’s military forces, Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov speaking at a media conference in Moscow on Monday.

“[We] would like to get an explanation as to why the military jet was flying along a civil aviation corridor at almost the same time and at the same level as a passenger plane,” he stated.

“The SU-25 fighter jet can gain an altitude of 10km, according to its specification,” he added. “It’s equipped with air-to-air R-60 missiles that can hit a target at a distance up to 12km, up to 5km for sure.”

http://rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plan ... a-ukraine/ (see video)

[vtsnowedin]

Interestingly, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed the max altitude of the SU-25 as 10km (33,000ft) "for short periods of time":

the head of the Main Operations Directorate of the HQ of Russia’s military forces, Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov speaking at a media conference in Moscow on Monday.

“[We] would like to get an explanation as to why the military jet was flying along a civil aviation corridor at almost the same time and at the same level as a passenger plane,” he stated.

“The SU-25 fighter jet can gain an altitude of 10km, according to its specification,” he added. “It’s equipped with air-to-air R-60 missiles that can hit a target at a distance up to 12km, up to 5km for sure.”

http://rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plan ... a-ukraine/ (see video)

Yes I'm aware of the Russian version of events. The one theory in the piece which might prove to be true in the end is down in the comments section. The speculation is that the "Rebels manning a Russian provided Buk missile attempted to shoot down the SU-25 fighter only to have the missile lock onto the much bigger 777 and down it instead. The Ukrainian AF had lost a plane or two in the days leading up to MA-17 so this might have been their next shot. We will eventually find out who exactly pulled the trigger but it will make little difference to the families of those lost.

[raspberry-blower]

More fuel on the fire.

The UK and US governments have warned Russia not to use humanitarian assistance as a pretext for sending troops into eastern Ukraine.

Any such intervention would be "completely unacceptable and "viewed as an invasion of Ukraine", said the US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28715467

Oh for ****'s sake. Really???

Someone really wants to start a war.

Same view echoed by Pepe Escobar: NATO is desperate for war

Also this from Vineyard of the Saker on the tit for tat sanctions:
You wanna be Uncle Sam's b###h? Pay the price!

Ninth, and this is really important, what is happening is a gradual decoupling of Russia from the western economies. The West severed some of the financial, military and aerospace ties, Russia severed the monetary, agricultural and industrial ones. Keep in mind that the US/EU market is a sinking one, affected by deep systemic problems and huge social issues. In a way, the perfect comparison is the Titanic whose orchestra continued to play music while the sink was sinking. Well, Russia is like a passenger who is told that the Titanic's authorities have decided to disembark him at the next port. Well, gee, too bad, right?

Last, but most definitely not least, this trade-war, combined with the West's hysterical russophobia, is doing for Putin a better PR campaign than anything the Kremlin could have dreamed of. All his PR people need to tell the Russian population is the truth: "we did everything right, we played it exactly by the book, we did everything we could to deescalate this crisis and all we asked for was to please not allow the genocide of our people in Novorussia - and what was the West's response to that? An insane hate campaign, sanctions against us and unconditional support for thegenocidal Nazis in Kiev". Furthermore, as somebody who carefully follows the Russian media, I can tell you that what is taking place today feels a lot like, paraphrasing Clausewitz, the "a continuation of WWII, but by other means", in other words a struggle to the end between two regimes, two civilizations, which cannot coexist on the same planet and who are locked in struggle to death. In these circumstances, expect the Russian people to support Putin even more.

Meanwhile US Analysts conclude MH17 downed by aircraft

KUALA LUMPUR: INTELLIGENCE analysts in the United States had already concluded that Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down by an air-to-air missile, and that the Ukrainian government had had something to do with it.

This corroborates an emerging theory postulated by local investigators that the Boeing 777-200 was crippled by an air-to-air missile and finished off with cannon fire from a fighter that had been shadowing it as it plummeted to earth.

In a damning report dated Aug 3, headlined “Flight 17 Shoot-Down Scenario Shifts”, Associated Press reporter Robert Parry said “some US intelligence sources had concluded that the rebels and Russia were likely not at fault and that it appears Ukrainian government forces were to blame”.

[raspberry-blower]

I don’t think we should say that what our politicians and press have claimed over the past 23 days since MH17 crashed is fine, or acceptable, or even pardonable, and that we should simply only try and find a different approach towards Russia going forward, because that would be more constructive. It wouldn’t help us understand, let alone solve, what happened, and more importantly, what’s wrong with us that makes us blindly follow the lies (a.k.a. lack of evidence).

In my view, it’s time for every single one of us to take a few large strides back and look at what evidence there is, and what there is not. When we’re done looking at that, and we know right from wrong, we can assign blame, and perhaps punishment. With a clear conscience. Right now, we have done no such thing, and we risk not ever doing it.

Do read Steingart’s The Escalation of Politics : The West Has Lost Direction , and do read Dmitry Orlov’s reaction to it, but don’t forget, it’s important you make up your own mind about all this.

Follow the Money all the way to the next war

[RenewableCandy]

the Russian version of events

isn't a very good way of putting it, since there appears to be no evidence for any other version of events!

Said evidence, if there were some, would be plastered all over UK and American newspapers would it not?

[vtsnowedin]

the Russian version of events

isn't a very good way of putting it, since there appears to be no evidence for any other version of events!

Said evidence, if there were some, would be plastered all over UK and American newspapers would it not?

Here is the American version of event's given from the White House a few days after the shoot down. I am unaware of any final report contradicting this position from an authoritative American source.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... story.html

[PS_RalphW]

Russia announces Humanitarian Mission to Ukraine.

About a humanitarian as the US bombing of IS to defend Kurdish oil wells.
(ie any humans saved are for PR purposes only).

[Little John]

Russia announces Humanitarian Mission to Ukraine.

About a humanitarian as the US bombing of IS to defend Kurdish oil wells.
(ie any humans saved are for PR purposes only).

On what basis do you make that comparison and the subsequent judgement (in brackets).

[clv101]

...an authoritative American source.

That's a subjective statement. There are plenty of occasions where direct lies have come straight from the that authoritative source.

From the position we are in, with the evidence we are privy to, we have no way of knowing what shot down that airplane and in my opinion anyone who says they do know what happened is likely to be pushing their own agenda.

One thing we can be fairly confident of though, is that our, your, the Russian and the Ukrainian foreign statesmen, none of them are simply in the business of uncovering and communicating the truth. All have political agendas to push.

It's also worth noting the lack of conviction from the West. Obama says "Evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by ..." yet evidence hasn't been presented in the media. The BBC are reporting:

The US and the EU have accused pro-Russian separatist rebels of attacking the jet, mistakenly, with a missile supplied by Russia. The rebels and the Russian government deny the accusation.

But then we also have this counter claim, again the BBC:

Russia, however, has denied all allegations it supplied weaponry to the rebels and has instead suggested a Ukrainian military plane had flown within firing range of the airliner just before it came down. The Ukrainian government has rejected the claims.

Maybe we will find out the truth in the coming weeks, months or years. But we, you and I do not currently know.