Ukraine Watch...

[Little John]

It strikes me that this kind of blatant propaganda bullshit would not be used unless things are desperate and are coming to come kind of a head. I think something bigger is coming that we have not been told about. Some kind of economic crisis perhaps? I don't know. But it seems to me it must be coming soon for this utter nonsense to be used against Russia. In other words, it's pretty amateur, cobbled together and a bit rushed. and the only thing I can think of is the moves of late by China, Russia and others to move away from trading in dollars. In particular in oil.

[another_exlurker]

It strikes me that this kind of blatant propaganda bullshit would not be used unless things are desperate and are coming to come kind of a head. I think something bigger is coming that we have not been told about. Some kind of economic crisis perhaps? I don't know. But it seems to me it must be coming soon for this utter nonsense to be used against Russia. In other words, it's pretty amateur, cobbled together and a bit rushed. and the only thing I can think of is the moves of late by China, Russia and others to move away from trading in dollars. In particular in oil.

I agree. I also wonder if it isn't part and parcel of TTIP. The Pacific equivalent is clearly designed to marginalise China, so I don't see why part of the aim of TTIP isn't to do the same to Russia.

It's an extremely risky gamble in the long term, but Western governments/corporations don't tend to think much beyond the next fiscal year.

The Chinese are quietly out-maneuvering the US in the currency markets one central bank at a time, most recently the Swiss and the only way Washington seems capable of responding is to try and start a war with Russia.

[PS_RalphW]

Russian oil production is now acknowledged to have peaked. As the world no 2 producer and exporter, this is a major geopolitical event.

I can see this becoming a new OPEC style crisis similar to 1973 where politics is used as a cover for declining oil supplies, both from Russia and the US.

We have

1. Saudi Arabia - may well have peaked, data too opaque
2. Russia - peaked
3. US - Still expanding shale production, but this largely condensate - not much use for petrol and useless for diesel/Aviation/Heating oil - and likely to peak within 2-3 years.
4. Iraq - production growth likely to stall
5. Iran
etc etc

[Tarrel]

I wouldn't want to turn this thread into some kind of hysterical, apocalyptic screaming session, but...

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07 ... -roberts/

In a previous column I described the article in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Washington foreign policy community, that makes a case that the US has such strategic advantage over Russia at this time that a “window of opportunity” exists for the US to remove Russia as a restraint on US hegemony with a preemptive nuclear attack.

It is almost certain that Obama is being told that President John F. Kennedy had this window of opportunity and did not use it, and that Obama must not let the opportunity pass a second time.

As Steven Starr explained in a guest column, there are no winners of nuclear war. Even if the US escapes retaliatory strikes, everyone will die regardless.

The view in Washington of the neoconservatives, who control the Obama regime, is that nuclear war is winnable. No expert opinion supports their assumption, but the neocons, not the experts, are in power.

The American people are out to lunch. They have no comprehension of their likely fate. Americans are an uninformed people distracted by their mounting personal and financial problems. If Europeans are aware, they have decided to live for the moment on Washington’s money.

What life is faced with is a drive for hegemony on the part of Washington and ignorant unconcern on the part of the rest of the world.

Americans, worked into a lather about Washington’s unfunded liabilities and the viability of their future Social Security pension, won’t be alive to collect it.

Admittedly, this guy is the "dog who turned on his master" and has nothing positive to say about the US government whatsoever. His writings are hardly what you'd call "balanced". However, he does make some worryingly sensible points.

As well as the "we can fight a nuclear war and win" doctrine, I wonder whether TPTB know we're basically all stuffed anyway, and are preparing for some kind of "sh*t or bust" finale?

[Tarrel]

I wouldn't want to turn this thread into some kind of hysterical, apocalyptic screaming session, but:

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07 ... -roberts/

In a previous column I described the article in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Washington foreign policy community, that makes a case that the US has such strategic advantage over Russia at this time that a “window of opportunity” exists for the US to remove Russia as a restraint on US hegemony with a preemptive nuclear attack.

It is almost certain that Obama is being told that President John F. Kennedy had this window of opportunity and did not use it, and that Obama must not let the opportunity pass a second time.

As Steven Starr explained in a guest column, there are no winners of nuclear war. Even if the US escapes retaliatory strikes, everyone will die regardless.

The view in Washington of the neoconservatives, who control the Obama regime, is that nuclear war is winnable. No expert opinion supports their assumption, but the neocons, not the experts, are in power.

The American people are out to lunch. They have no comprehension of their likely fate. Americans are an uninformed people distracted by their mounting personal and financial problems. If Europeans are aware, they have decided to live for the moment on Washington’s money.

What life is faced with is a drive for hegemony on the part of Washington and ignorant unconcern on the part of the rest of the world.

Americans, worked into a lather about Washington’s unfunded liabilities and the viability of their future Social Security pension, won’t be alive to collect it.

Admittedly, this guy is the "dog who turned on his master" and has nothing positive to say about the US government whatsoever. His writings are hardly what you'd call "balanced". However, he does make some worryingly sensible points.

As well as the "we can fight a nuclear war and win" doctrine, I wonder whether TPTB know we're basically all stuffed anyway, and are preparing for some kind of "sh*t or bust" finale?

[Tarrel]

Hmm..just tried to post a link and quote, but nothing appears.

[Tarrel]

Let's try another one.

An uncompromising article at The Automatic Earth about the fools we are taken for by our governments:

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/debt-r ... are-fools/

At this point, you may want to consider making it personal. Your government, wherever you are in the west, but especially in the US, takes you for a bunch of fools they can feed anything at all and fully expect you to believe all of it. As for the media who convey government messages, it’s up in the air whether they too take you for a flock of dimwits, or are just plain fools themselves. As for your families, friends and neighbors, you decide.

After failing to present a single shred of evidence in 10 days to substantiate their claims that either the rebels, Russia or all of the above were involved in the downing of MH17, they still haven’t. They did, however, come with something that is as devoid of shame as it is full of disgrace. And the media, surprise, present it as the real deal once again. Which goes to prove that nothing has to be real or true, Washington only has to claim it is.

The Dutch, Australian and Malaysian forensic experts who have been sent in to work on the crash site to save what is left of the bodies and dignity of the victims whose remains haven’t yet been found, cannot enter the area, because the Ukraine army happened to have elected the past weekend to start a new offensive against the rebels. Ostensibly to clear the crash site for the experts, but they would have had full access already without the offensive.

Rebel leader Borodai says the army went in to ‘evade exposure’ (i.e. hide evidence) of its culpability in the crash, and I’m wondering how far off he could possibly be.

And that brings up yet another question: who commands the Ukraine army? The latest offensive began after former PM Yatsenyuk resigned, and just yesterday Ukraine president Poroshenko told journalists – again – that he had ordered to stop combat operations in a 40-kilometer zone around the crash site (the latest attacks take place much closer than that). If it’s not the government or the president ordering the latest attacks, the ones that make truth finding impossible, then who is it?

[cubes]

From the end of this article in the FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b01cfb72-1669 ... z38nj2IAQe

One person close to Mr Putin said the Yukos ruling was insignificant in light of the bigger geopolitical stand-off over Ukraine. “There is a war coming in Europe,” he said. “Do you really think this matters?”

Scary stuff ahead?

[Tarrel]

An engaging piece of journalism from a Russian Bloomberg reporter apprehended at a checkpoint in Eastern Ukraine:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-2 ... ort-ensues

“You will now see how the Ukrainian army fights,” he said, and hit the throttle. The car bumped into a barrier, losing a fender guard, as I heard from their talks.

They stopped at another roadblock to get more weapons. We moved further in silence on a bumpy road. I started to fall asleep, wondering what message I would send to Polina and my son if I managed to get the phone back. A cursing voice woke me up.

The “Grad” turned out to be a grain harvester. The gunmen appeared to be relieved. They took my blindfold off and I saw a field of rye.

“Look how beautiful it is,” said Ruslan, a tall red-haired man in his 30s sitting next to me. He turned out to have a habit of pointing out picturesque landscapes. The three of them wore new combat vests and tactical sunglasses.

“You should be happy we got you and not the guys from the 39th unit,” Dmitry, the driver and the commander of the group, told me. “They are always drunk, so they would probably beat you to death first and then think.”

Dmitry, Ruslan and Pavel were small-business men before the conflict, they told me. Their companies had monthly sales of around 300,000 Hryvnia ($25,000) each. They used to travel together to Oktoberfest in Germany and organized weekend parties in country vacation houses. Dmitry turned out to be an expert in wind generators and dissuaded me from buying one for my dacha.
The three of them hated everything other than nature. They hated the Euromaidan protests for igniting the unrest, hated Americans and Europeans for supporting it, hated ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and, of course, hated Putin, journalists and Russians.

[Little John]

As ever, it's looking more and more like it's all about the oil and gas:

http://rt.com/business/176308-gas-pipel ... e-cheaper/

The South Stream gas pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine, may halve the value of Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS), according to Andrey Kobolev the head of Ukraine’s Naftogaz.

After the Russian–led South Stream project is complete and working at full capacity, the value of Ukraine’s GTS may fall as much 50 percent from the present estimate of $25-$35 billion, RIA Novosti quotes the head of the company.

“We have no wish to lose it, and it’s unreasonable," Kobolev said on a Ukrainian local TV channel.

Construction of the South Stream pipeline in Bulgaria and Serbia was suspended following pressure from the EU to comply with competition law. After a while construction resumed.

"They [Gazprom] are ready to invest their own 15 billion euro in South Stream construction … This gas pipeline will take away from the Ukrainian transit potentially up to 60 billion cubic meters. Currently the transit carries 86 billion cubic meters," Kobolev said.

Previously 110-120 billion cubic meters was fed through Ukraine, but now the Nord Stream pipeline has taken a share of it, Kobolev explained, and concluding that once South Stream is operational Ukraine could be in a very difficult situation.

[another_exlurker]

More unsubstantiated accusations.

The United States has concluded that Russia violated a landmark arms control treaty by testing a prohibited ground-launched cruise missile, according to senior American officials, a finding that was conveyed by President Obama to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in a letter on Monday.

The New York Times reported in January that American officials had informed the NATO allies that Russia had tested a ground-launched cruise missile, raising serious concerns about Russia’s compliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or I.N.F. Treaty as it is commonly called. The State Department said at the time that the issue was under review and that the Obama administration was not yet ready to formally declare it to be a treaty violation.

(Emphasis mine) One wonders what they were waiting for...

Presumably we'll be hearing from Dr. Strangelove next.

Original article.

[emordnilap]

Russian oil production is now acknowledged to have peaked. As the world no 2 producer and exporter, this is a major geopolitical event.

This indeed will prove to be significant, along with Mexico and Kuwait output declining rapidly. The Ghawar is probably past its peak. All this will be worth bearing in mind when observing governments' actions. Despite the hype over shall etc, the US still imports around half its petrochemical consumption. It's them or us.

[another_exlurker]

This is a fairly long article, but eventually it gets to Russian gas exports to the EU.

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-p ... nts-russia

[clv101]

Russian oil production is now acknowledged to have peaked. As the world no 2 producer and exporter, this is a major geopolitical event.

This indeed will prove to be significant, along with Mexico and Kuwait output declining rapidly. The Ghawar is probably past its peak. All this will be worth bearing in mind when observing governments' actions. Despite the hype over shall etc, the US still imports around half its petrochemical consumption. It's them or us.

And yet the oil price has been remarkably stable over the last year, also gold and generally equities have been on a gentle rise. Despite the 'geopolitical tensions' being worse than they've been for a decade, the traditional economic indicators are flat-lining.

I guess, one thing we've learnt over the last few years is that governments and central banks are willing and able to do more than many anticipated to keep the show on the road. The result is that folk aren't so easily panicked these days.

[vtsnowedin]

Russian oil production is now acknowledged to have peaked. As the world no 2 producer and exporter, this is a major geopolitical event.

This indeed will prove to be significant, along with Mexico and Kuwait output declining rapidly. The Ghawar is probably past its peak. All this will be worth bearing in mind when observing governments' actions. Despite the hype over shall etc, the US still imports around half its petrochemical consumption. It's them or us.

And yet the oil price has been remarkably stable over the last year, also gold and generally equities have been on a gentle rise. Despite the 'geopolitical tensions' being worse than they've been for a decade, the traditional economic indicators are flat-lining.

I guess, one thing we've learnt over the last few years is that governments and central banks are willing and able to do more than many anticipated to keep the show on the road. The result is that folk aren't so easily panicked these days.

It's like a husband pacing outside a maternity ward.