Ukraine Watch...

[raspberry-blower]

Only after 2 days of keeping them out by firing over their heads.

Bunch of amateurs who realise they have committed mass murder and respond in the traditional Soviet way - get blind drunk and pretend it didn't happen.

Really you are as dogmatic as any poster on this site when your own beliefs are threatened.

Er, Ralph, you appear to have ignored what I posted earlier - I'll post it again:

The crash site being in a contested area. Both sides could potentially tamper with the crash site and corrupt the investigation.

It would appear that the plane came down in an area controlled by the separatists. It is telling that the air accident investigators flew to KIEV. Why? Well answer this question: Who is going to provide security for the air accident investigators to and from the crash site?
There will inevitably be a stand off between the two sides for very obvious reasons. As per what Steve stated, I have not heard of the pro Russian militia firing over anyone's head either.
Is there anyone calling for a ceasefire until the investigation is complete?
If not, why not?

Personally I believe that the cock up theory is the most probable - although unlike Ralph I believe the Ukrainians to be the most likely culprits.
Why?
Firstly, general military incompetence. Ukraine is in a parlous financial state, which is reflected in its armed forces. The Ukrainian military are poorly paid and there is low morale amongst its troops.
Secondly, the Ukrainians have previous in accidently downing a civilian airliner. Remember Flight 1812 anyone?
Oh, and FWIW, the Ukrainian Prosecutor General said this:

KIEV, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. Militias in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics do not have Ukrainian air defense missile systems Buk and S-300 at their disposal, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Vitaly Yarema told Ukrainian Pravda newspaper on Friday.

“After the passenger airliner was downed, the military reported to the president that terrorists do not have our air defense missile systems Buk and S-300,” the general prosecutor said. “These weapons were not seized,” he added

Political dynamite if you think about its implications, and if it turns out to be true

[vtsnowedin]

A lot of BS

I'm afraid VT, this is very true of your post.

A 777 flying at less then 600MPH would be a piece of cake for a system capable of intercepting a fighter jet capable of mach 3 or better.

No such aircraft exists. Having a quick scan of the performance of front fighter jets of both Russian and NATO reveals no aircraft actually attains this performance (the nearest being the Mig-31).
This does not address, in any shape or form, a far more pertinent question: Why are the Ukrainians deploying a sophisticated AA missile battery in a combat site where the enemy does not possess an Air Force?

And unfortunately several military cargo planes use the same air frame and engines as civilian passenger jets so give off the same radar signature and fly at the same speeds and altitude.

This is wrong on so many levels I don't know where to begin. Firstly. the downed aircraft was a Boeing 777. AFAIK neither the Ukrainian military nor the Russians/pro Russian separatists employ Boeing 777 for military purposes (or any other Boeing aircraft whether it be civilian or military for that matter). However this overlooks an even more basic point that you have totally ignored: All civilian commercial airliners have transponders that identify themselves to Air Traffic Controllers. Surely this was ON during the ill fated flight?

Reason for it being in that air space and the guy at the controls of the missile not knowing it was civilian is still in question but it is early yet.

So why have the Ukrainian authorities taken away the recordings of Ukrainian Air Traffic Controllers to the doomed Malaysian jet then?

The conspiracy nuts will have it shot down by the US's CIA from some secret space plane or some such nonsense in a day or two.

Far too late for that VT. Already out there

Apparently you have not heard of the SR-71 Blackbird or the Mig -25 FoxBat.
The Ukrainians enemy is Russia which most certainly has an airforce including MiGs of all types.
As to looking like a military aircraft you don't expect them to read the vin number do you. Anything with a wing span and length over 150 feet and traveling at 580 mph or thereabouts is going to look the same on radar. There are plenty of candidates in the group with the KC-10 air tanker one of the most common. Why are the Ukrainian air traffic recordings not available? I don't know maybe they are with the IRS's lost E-mails.

[PS_RalphW]

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/eu ... 45166.html

http://www.ibtimes.com/ukrainian-rebels ... ts-1632866

Drunk. Trigger happy.

I used to work for the Civil Aviation Authority. I am very familiar with normal procedure after a airliner crash. I have read many official l crash reports. I have NEVER heard of behaviour like this before. This is a bunch of drunk thugs. No central authority of any of sort would permit such behaviour.

It site is in a war zone, but it is not contested. It is swarming with journalists, the only danger is from drunk local militia.

I had forgotten about the Siberian Airlines shooting. The main thing I take away from that was that

Russian officials initially dismissed the American claim as "unworthy of attention,"[12] and Russian President Vladimir Putin told the press the next day that "the weapons used in those exercises had such characteristics that make it impossible for them to reach the air corridor through which the plane was moving."[12]

(wikipedia). Normal procedure for Putin's Russia to deny responsibility until forced to do otherwise.

[edit] I should add of course the USA has behaved in exactly the same way in the past, over the Iranian airline shooting.

[raspberry-blower]

Apparently you have not heard of the SR-71 Blackbird or the Mig -25 FoxBat.

VT do you actually check things before posting?
The SR-71 is a Reconnaissance plane, not a jet fighter
The Mig-25 Foxbat is no longer a front line fighter jet having been replaced by the Mig-31 Foxhound.
It (the Mig-25 that is) could fly at Mach 3+ but only at the expense of knackering out its engines.
Interestingly the Ukrainians did take hold of 79 of these jets but have since been retired:

Ukraine Ukrainian Air Force – Took over 79 aircraft after the breakup of the USSR.[6] They have been withdrawn from service.

Mig-25 details

The Ukrainian Air Force does NOT possess the Mig-31 Foxhound in its ranks.

Anything with a wing span and length over 150 feet and traveling at 580 mph or thereabouts is going to look the same on radar.

Again you have totally ignored the blindingly obvious: commercial airlines have transponders to identify themselves. Whoever was tracking this before shooting it down must have been either poorly/inadequately trained, blindingly drunk or both. However that does not answer the most important question of all though: Who was doing the tracking before the engagement?

Why are the Ukrainian air traffic recordings not available?

I would strongly suspect that the Ukrainians are hiding something here that would portray them in a very bad light indeed.

I don't know maybe they are with the IRS's lost E-mails.

That's probably where they'll be found

[PS_RalphW]

I think the Iranian airliner had a transponder. Didn't stop the US mistaking it for a fighter jet.

The speed of the aircraft is a complete straw man. BUK missiles all have the speed and range to shoot down this aircraft and were deployed across Ukraine. It is certainly feasible that the rebels overran an in situ BUK system are the regular army abandoned it, then got support (tacit or explicit) from Russia to get it operational. The rebels have been actively shooting down aircraft in recent weeks, they have got quite good at it. There are references on the web (can't find one immediately) that rebels were reported as having done this a month ago. Yes this is a rumour of a rumour, I am trying to track it down.

I am not aware of the rebels having used aircraft at all in this conflict, so which side is more likely to have mistaken a civil aircraft at 33,000 feet as an enemy to be attacked?

I can accept that it cannot yet be proved that it isn't a Ukrainian black operation, but I can't prove that I won't be killed by a meteor strike in the next week either.

[edit]

OK here is my personal , plucked out of thin air, theory. There were some reports of a Ukrainian military transport plane being in the area at the same time, and it is certainly possible that the rebels fired the missile mistaking the airliner for the transport, or at the actual transport aircraft. This would certainly be carrying some form of air defense systems against missiles, so it is possible the missile missed the transport and locked onto the airliner by mistake. That is what happened in the 2001 shooting.

Then the Ukrainian military would be very happy to 'lose' the air traffic recordings if they exonerated the rebels to some extent, or if it showed the transport plane deliberately tracking close to the civil airliner to use it as a human shield.

This would then move the emphasis of blame away from the rebels. Let's see if this theme crops up elsewhere.

[PS_RalphW]

Another side note.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-28401863

[raspberry-blower]

I think the Iranian airliner had a transponder. Didn't stop the US mistaking it for a fighter jet.

Yes, indeed it did. Both Beria & Biff posted about it. This paragraph from Beria's post is very interesting:

A more plausible theory is that the shooting down of the Iranian jetliner was a deliberate action taken by the US military to terrorize the Iranian government into acceding to terms more favorable to Iraq in the ongoing talks to bring an end to the Iran-Iraq War. It is noteworthy that just 17 days after the destruction of Iran Air Flight 655, Ayatollah Khomeini publicly accepted a UN-brokered deal that he had previously opposed.

I am very dubious of the Vincennes accidently mistaking an Airbus A300 for an Iranian F-14 Tomcat. However if we go down this route in a very short matter of time be discussing Lockerbie. That's another discussion for another thread.

The speed of the aircraft is a complete straw man. BUK missiles all have the speed and range to shoot down this aircraft and were deployed across Ukraine.

Yep - although the point I was making to VT was that wording and what you actually say is of critical importance to forensic investigations. Ensure you have your facts right - or at least reference your sources

It is certainly feasible that the rebels overran an in situ BUK system are the regular army abandoned it, then got support (tacit or explicit) from Russia to get it operational.

Whilst it is certainly feasible that the separatist rebels may have overrun Ukrainian military positions and it is quite possible that Russian forces are assisting them in the battlefield, it beggars belief that the Russians would allow the separatists to use an advanced SAM system such as a BUK until they are fully trained and fully competent in their deployment.
Why?
Tactically it would be an unacceptable liability to the Russians. They do not want anything like what has happened - purely and simply because it would give the Ukrainians carte blanche to launch fresh offensives which may ultimately drag in NATO to the conflict.
As if to underline the point: Ukrainian forces launch Donetsk offensive

The rebels have been actively shooting down aircraft in recent weeks, they have got quite good at it.

This has, to a large part, been down to Ukrainian military incompetence. Many aircraft lost have been Su-25 Friogfoot ground attack aircraft - although at least two - quite probably three - Ukrainian transporters have been downed. Most of these have been downed at really low altitude - what doesn't help the Ukrainians is that many of their airfields are surrounded by the rebels.

I am not aware of the rebels having used aircraft at all in this conflict, so which side is more likely to have mistaken a civil aircraft at 33,000 feet as an enemy to be attacked?

False question here, Ralph. Either side is equally capable of making a catastrophic blunder. However recent developments may have rendered this a moot point. RT is reporting that a Ukrainian Su-25 was detected in close approach to flight MH17 shortly before crash

This has a resonance to this article from Pepe Escobar:

And then there's the curiouser and curiouser story of Carlos, the Spanish air traffic controller working at Kiev's tower, who was following MH17 in real time. For some Carlos is legit - not a cipher; for others, he's never even worked in Ukraine. Anyway he tweeted like mad. His account - not accidentally - has been shut down, and he has disappeared; his friends are now desperately looking for him. I managed to read all his tweets in Spanish when the account was still online - and now copies and an English translation are available.

These are some of his crucial tweets:


•"The B777 was escorted by 2 Ukrainian fighter jets minutes before disappearing from radar (5.48 pm)"
•"If the Kiev authorities want to admit the truth 2 fighter jets were flying very close a few minutes before the incident but did not shoot down the airliner (5.54)"
•"As soon as the Malaysia Airlines B777 disappeared the Kiev military authority informed us of the shooting down. How did they know? (6.00)"
• "Everything has been recorded on radar. For those that don't believe it, it was taken down by Kiev; we know that here (in traffic control) and the military air traffic control know it too (7.14)"
•"The Ministry of the Interior did know that there were fighter aircraft in the area, but the Ministry of Defense didn't. (7.15)"
•"The military confirm that it was Ukraine, but it is not known where the order came from. (7.31

There is a lot more to this case than meets the eye.
This situation requires cool heads to diffuse a major potential flashpoint.
Crude WW1 style propaganda vilifying the Russians and the separatists only serve to stir up irrational hatreds - of which the MSM is clearly complicit.

[Lord Beria3]

All very murky to me and it seems a hell of misinformation being thrown around as Obama himself warned in a speech a day or two ago.

What we need is a proper independent enquiry into this tragedy.

I do find it slightly ironic that the Israelis are currently killing hundreds of civilians in the Gaza strip even as the Western leaders are howling with rage and blaming Putin - before the facts have emerged!!! - whilst saying virtually nothing on the current violence in the ME.

p.s. as many know here, I tend to err on the side of the Israelis in the eternal and frankly boring Israel-Palestinian conflict but this does not mean by any stretch of the imagine that I uncritically support the actions of the Israeli state.

[vtsnowedin]

Yep - although the point I was making to VT was that wording and what you actually say is of critical importance to forensic investigations. Ensure you have your facts right - or at least reference your sources

Lets not assign too much importance to our discussions here, we are just shooting the breeze. My point was that surface to air missiles are designed to take out fighter jets and a cargo planes or passenger airliners are slow moving targets relative. That an F-15 only goes (officially) M2.5 and not M3+ as I stated off the cuff does not in any way make the cargo plane hard to hit early or late. If you think anything you say here is of "critical importance" you need a reality check.

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... -West.html

The economic showdown unfolding between Russia and the West is almost entirely one-sided.

The US has the power to bring Russia to its knees through hegemonic control over the world’s banking system, using an array of lethal financial weapons developed by a cell at the US Treasury, and already deployed against Iran and North Korea.

Richard Christopher Granville, from Trusted Sources, said the US “crossed the Rubicon” last week even before the apparent missile strike against Malaysia Airlines flight 17, imposing sanctions that effectively shut the energy trio of Rosneft, Novatek, and Gazprombank out of international finance.

“The Americans have the power to throttle Russia unilaterally because no European or Western bank of any importance is going to defy the US after the fines imposed on BNP Paribas,” he said.

“What has been holding them back is fear of a damaging split between the US and Europe, since it is Europe that suffers the full blow-back from sanctions. This issue has been blown away completely by the crash. Europe’s leaders now have a duty to their own citizens to be tough,” he said.

Mr Granville said the yawing gap that was building up last week between the two sides of the Atlantic has suddenly closed, making it much harder for Russian president Vladimir Putin to keep playing Europe off against America. Europe’s anger over the apparent missile strike and the abuse of the crime scene has denied him his last trump card

Ambrose may be hostile to Russia but his perceptive and always interesting analysis may also show 'who benefits' from this tragic incident - Ukraine! And the Americans to a certain extent.

Of course, it is up to Putin to prove that the Russian backed rebels were not behind this attack - which is perfectly possible - otherwise his economy may take a severe hammering soon.

[raspberry-blower]

Oh FFS!!!!
Ofcom receives complaints after Sky News report on MH17

A Sky News report from Ukraine has drawn 110 complaints to Ofcom after a journalist rummaged through belongings at the scene of the MH17 plane crash.

Live footage broadcast at lunchtime on Sunday showed Sky's Colin Brazier pluck items from an open suitcase.

He dropped them back into the luggage saying "we shouldn't really be doing this I suppose, really".

Has this Colin Brazier been dismissed yet? If not, why not?

[Tarrel]

A poignant article from the Automatic Earth, emphasising what a lot of folks seem to have forgotten in this issue; respect and empathy for the victims and families of the downed airliner.

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/the-da ... oked-away/

Reasonable doubt. That’s how you show respect. For victims, for loved ones, for democracy and for justice. From where I’m sitting, which happens to be Holland, far too many amongst us show neither such respect nor doubt nor reason. You would think and hope that 298 dead bodies deserve more than to be reduced to pawns in infantile blame games. They deserve that we should be better than that.

[3rdRock]

A poignant article from the Automatic Earth, emphasising what a lot of folks seem to have forgotten in this issue; respect and empathy for the victims and families of the downed airliner.

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/the-da ... oked-away/

Reasonable doubt. That’s how you show respect. For victims, for loved ones, for democracy and for justice. From where I’m sitting, which happens to be Holland, far too many amongst us show neither such respect nor doubt nor reason. You would think and hope that 298 dead bodies deserve more than to be reduced to pawns in infantile blame games. They deserve that we should be better than that.

+1. I heard a report on the radio last night that many of the victim's personal items were turning up for sale at a local market.

Ukrainian patriots? Pro-russian separatists? They're all nothing but a bunch of murdering gypos.

[biffvernon]

They're all nothing but a bunch of murdering gypos.

They're all? It would have been only one finger that pressed the fire button, though a few people in the chain of command, if there was any such chain, might be culpable.

Gypos? Is there any evidence of a gypsy community involved or are you just making a racist remark?

The selling of personal effects in the market, if that's what happened, might be seen as a reasonable and pragmatic act of salvage and recycling. The thinking might go, 'The people are dead, there is no way anyone from Malaya or Holland is going to search through my field of sunflowers for their relative's stuff, I'm having to do all the hard work of clearing the mess so I can grow a crop next year, I didn't ask for any of this but I might as well see if I can get a few roubles for my pain.

We should not rush to rash judgement of others who live in very different circumstances to ours.

[biffvernon]

And here is another article, which since it does not fit the western agenda, must be a fairy tale/conspiracy theory. (Or not.) http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... -kiev.html