Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[Pepperman]

Oddly the industry (at least when it comes to electricity settlement) considers winter to be the following:

Winter (Season Id 1): defined as the period from the day of clock change from British Summer Time (BST) to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in October, up to and including the day preceding the clock change from GMT to BST in March

i.e. 5 months. I don't know if the gas sector follows the same pattern.

[RenewableCandy]

I rather like the idea of a personnel woodpile. Can I put Eric Pickles on it? (I would say Gove but I think we'd get more kWh out of Pickles )

[vtsnowedin]

I rather like the idea of a personnel woodpile. Can I put Eric Pickles on it? (I would say Gove but I think we'd get more kWh out of Pickles )

Well it is personally my wood pile as I personnel cut it, skidded it, blocked it split it, hauled it, piled it, put it into the stoves and will haul the ashes out to the fields. You get rather attached to it. On the other hand the local oil company is not leaving me a slip in the door every month or so demanding $1200 US before they will come around again and fill a tank for me.

[BritDownUnder]

*there is more than one definition of "winter", but a good common-sense definition is December, January, and Febuary.

All depends on where you are of course. Here we want wood piles and snowplows to be in order and ready to go October first as Halloween can be a snowy trickster and furnaces will kick on at night starting mid month or so. Then most years the snow is gone about April fools day but about one year in seven will last until May first. So six months of winter with a chance of one or two months extra, this will always hit you when your personnel wood pile is short. I consider a 200 day supply to be adequate going into the fall.

I have a wood pile but I don't use it much. Someone brought the wood in a pickup for which I paid them $150. He was very nice though and helped me stack it for the price. The more commercial operators just dump it in your drive way or charge an extra $50 to stack it. I have no trees to cut and the hardwood is much better delivered.

I have not used much wood this year. I got the solar and even in winter it gives a nice 2.5kW during the 4 hours around noon so enough for cooking. You cant beat wood to heat the house though.

It looks like the UK will be OK for gas this year. Maybe the wind had a lot to do with it. It looks like whatever wind there is - up to 5GW for a lot of December - just slices off the CCGT gas consumption.

[Tarrel]

*there is more than one definition of "winter", but a good common-sense definition is December, January, and Febuary.

All depends on where you are of course. Here we want wood piles and snowplows to be in order and ready to go October first as Halloween can be a snowy trickster and furnaces will kick on at night starting mid month or so. Then most years the snow is gone about April fools day but about one year in seven will last until May first. So six months of winter with a chance of one or two months extra, this will always hit you when your personnel wood pile is short. I consider a 200 day supply to be adequate going into the fall.

I have a wood pile but I don't use it much. Someone brought the wood in a pickup for which I paid them $150. He was very nice though and helped me stack it for the price. The more commercial operators just dump it in your drive way or charge an extra $50 to stack it. I have no trees to cut and the hardwood is much better delivered.

I have not used much wood this year. I got the solar and even in winter it gives a nice 2.5kW during the 4 hours around noon so enough for cooking. You cant beat wood to heat the house though.

It looks like the UK will be OK for gas this year. Maybe the wind had a lot to do with it. It looks like whatever wind there is - up to 5GW for a lot of December - just slices off the CCGT gas consumption.

And it's been very mild here.

[adam2]

Agree, most unlikely to be any problem this winter.
Storage being used at a significant rate, but still almost 60% full.
Prolonged cold weather is now very unlikely, a couple of cold weeks is certainly possible, but more than that is unlikely.

[Tarrel]

Agree, most unlikely to be any problem this winter.
Storage being used at a significant rate, but still almost 60% full.
Prolonged cold weather is now very unlikely, a couple of cold weeks is certainly possible, but more than that is unlikely.

Just as well, given everything else we're having to contend with!

[adam2]

Here we go again !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26902522

"supplies to Europe could be affected"

Unlikely to be of any concern in the near term as gas reserves are still about 50% full and winter is over.
A bit worrying in the longer term though.

[mikepepler]

I was thinking this winter had been a bit quiet for gas supply panic, but Russia is stepping in to fill the gap!

[adam2]

It is too early to panic about next winter as yet, but the filling of storage seems very slow with little net filling over the last few weeks.

I wonder why filling is so slow? the wholesale price is low by recent standards suggesting no shortage of supply in the near term.

If the rate of storage injection does not increase substantialy then it wont be full by next autumn.

More gas is being burnt for electricity production, the increase in wind power being insufficient to offset the reduction in coal burning generating capacity.
I would however have expected that sufficient import capacity exists to both fill the store AND run gas power stations. I do not recall any suggestion that physical import capacity was a problem.

In the longer term of course it is doubtful if the gas will be available to import, but the present low price suggests ample short term supply.

[vtsnowedin]

Here and there I read that the USA's gas storage situation is not good this year and might well be less then adequate come the start of the heating season.

[PS_RalphW]

UK spot price for NG has collapsed to 36p - half of the winter peak.

Storage is still being filled at a snail's pace, and watchdogs are moaning that energy big six are making out like bandits.

Of course, most NG is bought well in advance at fixed price and in secret. Little is traded on the open market.

The so called open market for energy is of course anything but open, and a closed market is not a market, it is a cartel.

[Little John]

If the energy companies deliberately kept their reserves low, instead of taking this opportunity to fill those reserves up while wholesale prices are low, so that when winter came the retail supply, although tight, was just about able to meet demand instead of meeting it easily due to well stocked reserves, would that not keep the retail price artificially high during those winter months?

Meanwhile, the primary suppliers/wholesalers of the gas will have experienced a log-jam of reserves they were unable to find sufficient buyers for in the previous summer, meaning that wholesale prices will still be low when the energy companies go back to them in the spring.

[cubes]

I think we have a winner!

Could also help them get permission/subsidies for new gas storage too.

[adam2]

Storage still being filled only slowly, I would have expected filling at the maximum possible rate, given the low price.
I can only conclude that they expect a furthur fall in prices ! gas storage is a comerical undertaking and they would wish to avoid buying gas at 100X and then after the expense of storage only being able to sell it for say 70X.

Looking at the news from Ukraine, and Iraq, I doubt that prices will stay this low for long.