When and why?
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PowerSwitchJames
- Posts: 934
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: London
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When and why?
A lot of people claim that oil is going to peak...and soon (I am one of them). But why? Why do you think oil is going to peak when it is going to peak? Can you defend your claim?
Well, thanks to Hubbert, we know that oil depletion isn't like turning a tap on. It isn't going to flow out at a steady rate, and then suddenly stop, it will peter out. Studies in countries (like the US) and on individual oilfields give evidence for this.
As for it peaking soon...I'm not a geologist. I don't know how much oil is locked in the ground. I can only rely on other people to tell me. That, I admit, is the weakness in my argument. But what else can explain the insane oil prices? When demand outstrips supply, price goes up.
Personally I feel we are on the plateau. Demand is slowly pulling away from supply. But supply hasn't yet begun to slide. Things are still functioning, just getting more and more expensive.
As for it peaking soon...I'm not a geologist. I don't know how much oil is locked in the ground. I can only rely on other people to tell me. That, I admit, is the weakness in my argument. But what else can explain the insane oil prices? When demand outstrips supply, price goes up.
Personally I feel we are on the plateau. Demand is slowly pulling away from supply. But supply hasn't yet begun to slide. Things are still functioning, just getting more and more expensive.
Why do I think oil supply is about to peak?
Like most of us I haven't studied the geological surveys directly.
It is a question of which reports you trust. I have lived long enough and
seen enough of how governments and corporations
work on all levels to know how little you can trust what they say, but
you can interpret what they <DO> in the light of (presumably)
independant reports by 'experts'.
What I see governments doing is military, diplomatic and economic
manouvering in and around all oil producing nations. I see third world
nations getting headline news attention which ten years ago wouldn't
even have got into page 57 of the world news sections, and whatever
the story, the nation always has significant oil reserves that are
up for grabs. I see Iraq, a tin pot dictatorship with massive oil reserves
invaded to 'spread democracy', whilst North Korea, with mass starvation,
stalinist repression, and a nuclear armed prize goon in charge, is
quietly ignored - no oil. I see one of the 'Stan's (I forget which one)
with oil and US military bases , and their dear leader shoots protesters
in their hundreds in the street - and they get a mild slap in the wrist
- (Don't do it again - at least not in front of the cameras - it makes
us look bad).
I know enough science to know that the theory of peak oil is
credible, and I see a lot of evidence that governments believe it too.
Like most of us I haven't studied the geological surveys directly.
It is a question of which reports you trust. I have lived long enough and
seen enough of how governments and corporations
work on all levels to know how little you can trust what they say, but
you can interpret what they <DO> in the light of (presumably)
independant reports by 'experts'.
What I see governments doing is military, diplomatic and economic
manouvering in and around all oil producing nations. I see third world
nations getting headline news attention which ten years ago wouldn't
even have got into page 57 of the world news sections, and whatever
the story, the nation always has significant oil reserves that are
up for grabs. I see Iraq, a tin pot dictatorship with massive oil reserves
invaded to 'spread democracy', whilst North Korea, with mass starvation,
stalinist repression, and a nuclear armed prize goon in charge, is
quietly ignored - no oil. I see one of the 'Stan's (I forget which one)
with oil and US military bases , and their dear leader shoots protesters
in their hundreds in the street - and they get a mild slap in the wrist
- (Don't do it again - at least not in front of the cameras - it makes
us look bad).
I know enough science to know that the theory of peak oil is
credible, and I see a lot of evidence that governments believe it too.
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SherryMayo
- Posts: 235
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Melbourne, Australia
Like RalphW I am a scientist and find the peak oil idea in general credible, but while the Hubbert model is persuasive but there is incomplete information to put into the model, namely the size of middle east reserves. There are good reasons for doubting the claims of the Saudis, and Matt Simmons has added a lot of weight to this view, but no-one really knows for sure.
Things that have made the peak oil idea more convincing for me are:
1) Chris Skrebowski's analysis of mega-projects due to come online. This is a short term prediction, but one based on more accurate info and it still points to a mismatch between supply and demand in a few years - even if everything goes according to plan - pretty unlikely given the limited availablility of rigs & people, and the politically unstable places where the oil is located (eg ME, the 'stans).
2) Analyses by Zittel et al showing the historic production for non-opec, non-fsu countries (for which there is good info) and how many countries have already peaked. Also their great critique of the optimistic USGS/IEA view. See http://tinyurl.com/cuqw4 .
3) The exploration curve compared to the production curve (in the Campbell back-dated form).
4) Reading a *lot* of news etc about oil & gas which shows eg: countries like China scouring the world for its future energy sources; the oil companies failing to find or explore much (despite huge profits & high prices) due to the lack of sound prospects; the volatility of the oil market; more news of peaking production - notably recent news about China and Mexico; the geopolitical manoeuvring of the US - sabre rattling over Iran, building new bases in the caspian region and the middle east (I could go on and on here...)
Things that have made the peak oil idea more convincing for me are:
1) Chris Skrebowski's analysis of mega-projects due to come online. This is a short term prediction, but one based on more accurate info and it still points to a mismatch between supply and demand in a few years - even if everything goes according to plan - pretty unlikely given the limited availablility of rigs & people, and the politically unstable places where the oil is located (eg ME, the 'stans).
2) Analyses by Zittel et al showing the historic production for non-opec, non-fsu countries (for which there is good info) and how many countries have already peaked. Also their great critique of the optimistic USGS/IEA view. See http://tinyurl.com/cuqw4 .
3) The exploration curve compared to the production curve (in the Campbell back-dated form).
4) Reading a *lot* of news etc about oil & gas which shows eg: countries like China scouring the world for its future energy sources; the oil companies failing to find or explore much (despite huge profits & high prices) due to the lack of sound prospects; the volatility of the oil market; more news of peaking production - notably recent news about China and Mexico; the geopolitical manoeuvring of the US - sabre rattling over Iran, building new bases in the caspian region and the middle east (I could go on and on here...)
Re: When and why?
Because supply cannot meet the increase in demand; it's a geological matter of fact. Not to mention that the refineries are ALL operating at their limit, and no new ones are being built - it's like a pipe - you can't squeeze any more into it no matter how hard you try. And, "you have to find it first".PowerSwitchJames wrote:....But why?....Can you defend your claim?
As Dave Holmgren, Mike Ruppert and Richard Heinberg say, don't bother trying to persuade those who want to live in denial. You're much better off informing 10 people and having 2 that believe you rather than browbeating 2 that are in complete denial.
Olduvai Theory (Updated) (Reviewed)
Easter Island - a warning from history : http://dieoff.org/page145.htm
Easter Island - a warning from history : http://dieoff.org/page145.htm
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kevincarter
- Posts: 40
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
why? and when?
Well... I have a feeling about it that says that it will happen soon. Everything just got too supperficial and it looks to me that this are the good times, the peak of the wave. But the more reasonable arguments are:
-The fact that the Oil companies invest nothing in finding new oil sources. (they are the firstones interested in finding them)
-War in Irak (they wouldn't go there if they were not in the need of doing so)
-Oil prices reaching almost 60 usd a barrel and going up! (I bet 70usd by winter)
-China going through an industrial expansion that needs tons of energy.
-Everything beeing produced abroad (from cars to apples), this change is a huge change because it means an incredible increase of energy consumption to just distribute things. Everything depends on long distance transportation, food included.
-Many scientists/geologists screaming that the peak is about to come and giving scientific data that prooves it and not many people listening.
-And then there is my personal theory: it's just too calm, everything is just too nice, like calm was the life of the average farmer in Hiroshima months or years before the nuke was drop, or the life of the jewish in Germany in 1934, or the life of the average guy in the US before the economic crack. Who could think such disasters were about to happen!
When?
First serious symptoms by the end of 2006 begining of 2007.
-The fact that the Oil companies invest nothing in finding new oil sources. (they are the firstones interested in finding them)
-War in Irak (they wouldn't go there if they were not in the need of doing so)
-Oil prices reaching almost 60 usd a barrel and going up! (I bet 70usd by winter)
-China going through an industrial expansion that needs tons of energy.
-Everything beeing produced abroad (from cars to apples), this change is a huge change because it means an incredible increase of energy consumption to just distribute things. Everything depends on long distance transportation, food included.
-Many scientists/geologists screaming that the peak is about to come and giving scientific data that prooves it and not many people listening.
-And then there is my personal theory: it's just too calm, everything is just too nice, like calm was the life of the average farmer in Hiroshima months or years before the nuke was drop, or the life of the jewish in Germany in 1934, or the life of the average guy in the US before the economic crack. Who could think such disasters were about to happen!
When?
First serious symptoms by the end of 2006 begining of 2007.
Truth, if it goes beyond any reasonable doubt.
Also - even though the refineries are currently producing on full capacity - nobody is willing to invest in building any extra ones.
BP have changed their logo to a sunflower and I saw a report somewhere that said (don't know how truthfully) they were starting to market themselves as 'Beyond Petroluem'. That's maybe a bit far fetched tho.
Some of the main people pushing the peak oil theory worked in large oil companies and unless they have some sort of grudge or hidden agenda I'd say they would have a fair idea of what is going on behind the scenes.
Nearly every news program mentions reducing carbon usage, mentions oil or alternative forms of energy. Look in the business sections of any of the boradhseets and they're the same. There is a lot of media focus on the current lack of (enough) oil (to go around).
The government U-turn on nuclear power. And also, some Labour members are now campainging to introduce domestic carbon trading (veryone gets given a certain amount of carbon credits, that can be used to purchase petrol etc... if you don't use yours you can sell them to someone else, or if you need more you could buy someone elses - sounds almost like rationing).
It's common sense. Finite resources run out. Looking at graphs indicating useage, sources etc. etc. you can't fail to notice that it looks a bit iffy.
Could go on a bit...but that's what the links page is for....
BP have changed their logo to a sunflower and I saw a report somewhere that said (don't know how truthfully) they were starting to market themselves as 'Beyond Petroluem'. That's maybe a bit far fetched tho.
Some of the main people pushing the peak oil theory worked in large oil companies and unless they have some sort of grudge or hidden agenda I'd say they would have a fair idea of what is going on behind the scenes.
Nearly every news program mentions reducing carbon usage, mentions oil or alternative forms of energy. Look in the business sections of any of the boradhseets and they're the same. There is a lot of media focus on the current lack of (enough) oil (to go around).
The government U-turn on nuclear power. And also, some Labour members are now campainging to introduce domestic carbon trading (veryone gets given a certain amount of carbon credits, that can be used to purchase petrol etc... if you don't use yours you can sell them to someone else, or if you need more you could buy someone elses - sounds almost like rationing).
It's common sense. Finite resources run out. Looking at graphs indicating useage, sources etc. etc. you can't fail to notice that it looks a bit iffy.
Could go on a bit...but that's what the links page is for....