Shale gas was always a myth?

[emordnilap]

Shale oil and gas amount to an “energy renaissance” that will keep supplies of affordable fossil fuels flowing indefinitely, will make us “energy independent,” and will make us “a bigger producer than Saudi Arabia.” This is all mendacious bullshit with a wishful thinking cherry on top. Here’s how shale oil is different from conventional oil:

Source

[Ralph]

In the nearest future we will continue using oil and gas because it will stay the only reliable source of energy no matter what shale gas lobbyists say.

and in the US, over the next couple years, some 25% of our natural gas will come from shales, just like some big chunk of our current oil does.

From the folks who do this for a living:

Gas



Oil



Sort of hard to call it "always" a myth when it is already doing its thing…of course, if the Brits CHOOSE to not access these types of resources, that is entirely a different kind of problem.

[Ralph]

Source

Joke. Not source.

[RenewableCandy]

I like the way the lumps all happen in the future. Of course, "the folks who do this for a living" have no interest whatsoever in talking up their "assets"*. Heaven forfend!


*emphasis on 1st syllable

[biffvernon]

Oh don't encourage it. It can't even spell sauce.

[PS_RalphW]

US gas storage is drawing down very fast, far lower for time of year than in the last five years. Spot price back close to five dollars. Propane is becoming hard to get at any price. Local diesel shortages in Kentucky, because so much is needed to sustain fracking. Bakken shale oil production fell by 50k in December due to bad weather. OECD oil storage declined by 1.5 Mbpd in the last three months. Those plots of future production are pure fiction to delude the incautious investor.

[RenewableCandy]

Oh don't encourage it. It can't even spell sauce.

That's 'cause it's been away for ages and has to ketchup.

[biffvernon]

[Ralph]

I like the way the lumps all happen in the future. Of course, "the folks who do this for a living" have no interest whatsoever in talking up their "assets"*. Heaven forfend!


*emphasis on 1st syllable

The lumps have been happening in the past. Those who do this for a living, watching such things, like say the Administrator of the EIA, have hardly been wall flowers on the topic.

http://www.eagleenergycore.com/oil-prod ... s-history/

[Ralph]

US gas storage is drawing down very fast, far lower for time of year than in the last five years. Spot price back close to five dollars. Propane is becoming hard to get at any price. Local diesel shortages in Kentucky, because so much is needed to sustain fracking. Bakken shale oil production fell by 50k in December due to bad weather. OECD oil storage declined by 1.5 Mbpd in the last three months. Those plots of future production are pure fiction to delude the incautious investor.

The EIA doesn't do what it does for investors. That is not their job. They even recognize peaks and declines, something David Hughes doesn't mind in the least.

http://www.countercurrents.org/hughes140813.htm

[RenewableCandy]

I like the way the lumps all happen in the future. Of course, "the folks who do this for a living" have no interest whatsoever in talking up their "assets"*. Heaven forfend!


*emphasis on 1st syllable

The lumps have been happening in the past. Those who do this for a living, watching such things, like say the Administrator of the EIA, have hardly been wall flowers on the topic.

Quite. Like I said, they have to talk-up their assets. Haven't they installed a "read" module on you yet?

[johnhemming]

Conventional oil peaked a few years ago. Non-conventional oil will peak at some stage (including conventional oil).

As to when.

No-one knows.

It is worth trying to find out when and looking at various estimates, but no one can claim to know with 100% certainty. If they do then they don't know.

Looking at the EIA they have
2012-6.48 2013-7.44 2014-8.42 2015-9.19

Assuming that 2013 is now actual. That seems below the april 2013 prediction and is why i really prefer figures in tables to graphs.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repor ... troleum-b1

The fact that WTI has been edging up implies that production is below market expectations.

[Ralph]

Conventional oil peaked a few years ago. Non-conventional oil will peak at some stage (including conventional oil).

And the relevance of peak in only certain types of chemical feedstock matters…how…when we continue to make our fuels from…well…dirt?

The fact that WTI has been edging up implies that production is below market expectations.

Could be. But I think peak oil has to do with rate, not price.

Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[RenewableCandy]

Conventional oil peaked a few years ago. Non-conventional oil will peak at some stage (including conventional oil).

And the relevance of peak in only certain types of chemical feedstock matters…how

Because it's easier to get at and more affordable. Do at least try and do the rest of us the courtesy of not being quite so deliberately stupid. You're supposed to be an industry professional, or was that last week?

[Ralph]

Conventional oil peaked a few years ago. Non-conventional oil will peak at some stage (including conventional oil).

And the relevance of peak in only certain types of chemical feedstock matters…how

Because it's easier to get at and more affordable.

And it stopped mattering the INSTANT that the Canadians turned on the marginal barrel. Otherwise known as oily dirt. Marginal barrel pricing old chap, do try and keep up. It is irrelevant how much older, cheaper, easier stuff is left, that oil doesn't determine the price.

So before that day YEARS ago when you started posting on this website, the convenience of this particular subtype of chemical feedstock was already irrelevant to what is affordable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marginal_cost

Do at least try and do the rest of us the courtesy of not being quite so deliberately stupid.

Well said. Now go try and understand why it is that you not only don't understand anything about oil, but missed Econ 101 fundamentals at the same time in your rush to zealotry.