Are we on the verge of a massive Emerging Markets Collapse?

[raspberry-blower]

Over at Golem XIV, David Malone has been speculating about the three apparent suicides of merchant *ankers last week. Whilst a lot of this is still circumstantial, there is plenty in the article to be very concerned with:

Now I realize, as I said above, that this is all circumstantial and speculative. But derivatives are, as Warren Buffett said, very dangerous. Deutsche is sitting on the world’s biggest pile of them and J P Morgan the second biggest pile. And right now global events are making those risks sweat. When HSBC tries to limit cash withdrawals and so does one of Russia’s largest banks then something somewhere is not healthy. We are , I think, circling around another Morgan Stanley moment.

On Death and Derivatives

[RenewableCandy]

Sorry, I was just quoting a famous set of last words.

[Little John]

Over at Golem XIV, David Malone has been speculating about the three apparent suicides of merchant *ankers last week. Whilst a lot of this is still circumstantial, there is plenty in the article to be very concerned with:

Now I realize, as I said above, that this is all circumstantial and speculative. But derivatives are, as Warren Buffett said, very dangerous. Deutsche is sitting on the world’s biggest pile of them and J P Morgan the second biggest pile. And right now global events are making those risks sweat. When HSBC tries to limit cash withdrawals and so does one of Russia’s largest banks then something somewhere is not healthy. We are , I think, circling around another Morgan Stanley moment.

On Death and Derivatives

I actually think I know that fellah. He lives in Whitby I think.

Anyhow, if what he is suggesting is correct, it sounds like some people are being bumped off. And, if that's true, it because they knew too much. And, if that's true, the only reason their knowing too much would be an issue right now would be if there was real risk of some major shit going down which might cause stuff to get exposed.

[UndercoverElephant]

Over at Golem XIV, David Malone has been speculating about the three apparent suicides of merchant *ankers last week. Whilst a lot of this is still circumstantial, there is plenty in the article to be very concerned with:

Now I realize, as I said above, that this is all circumstantial and speculative. But derivatives are, as Warren Buffett said, very dangerous. Deutsche is sitting on the world’s biggest pile of them and J P Morgan the second biggest pile. And right now global events are making those risks sweat. When HSBC tries to limit cash withdrawals and so does one of Russia’s largest banks then something somewhere is not healthy. We are , I think, circling around another Morgan Stanley moment.

On Death and Derivatives

I actually think I know that fellah. He lives in Whitby I think.

Anyhow, if what he is suggesting is correct, it sounds like some people are being bumped off. And, if that's true, it because they knew too much. And, if that's true, the only reason their knowing too much would be an issue right now would be if there was real risk of some major shit going down which might cause stuff to get exposed.

It might be because they are the ones who have the information that would allow certain people higher up the food chain to be implicated as being partly responsible for the stuff that is going to get exposed at some point in the future. Just look at the phone-hacking trial: when the shit finally hits the fan, it all comes down to finding out exactly who knew what what about what, and when they knew it.

[SleeperService]

An interesting thread and covers most of the bases pretty well.

The factor that hasn't been covered so well is the effect of QE massaging the banking sector's performance. The QE money has, most definitely, been siphoned out by the 1% but it's insertion into the system has brought time for the system to regain credibility so BAU can be brought back into the open.

Over 5 years down the road Public Debt has multiplied beyond belief, the banking system has made no real reform, just about every currency has been effectively devalued and 95+% of the workforce are all worse off.

The pressure on the economy has been building all the time and soon it will deflate massively. The FTSE100 has been virtually flat over the last year and nobody can see a change anytime soon. The baby boomers are still feeding into the pension system at a much faster rate than youngsters are getting equivalent jobs to top up the pension pots, and the big dinosaur killer, this all happens at a time when oil production has plateaued which will effectively prohibit 'growing out' of this crisis.

It might be tomorrow or in 5 years when the Industrial Capitalism Bubble bursts but it will burst. The point where the money needed to keep it going exceeds that which can be created is very near. Christ! Even the US Govt. is getting twitchy......

[raspberry-blower]

An interesting thread and covers most of the bases pretty well.

The factor that hasn't been covered so well is the effect of QE massaging the banking sector's performance. The QE money has, most definitely, been siphoned out by the 1% but it's insertion into the system has brought time for the system to regain credibility so BAU can be brought back into the open.

Over 5 years down the road Public Debt has multiplied beyond belief, the banking system has made no real reform, just about every currency has been effectively devalued and 95+% of the workforce are all worse off.

The pressure on the economy has been building all the time and soon it will deflate massively. The FTSE100 has been virtually flat over the last year and nobody can see a change anytime soon. The baby boomers are still feeding into the pension system at a much faster rate than youngsters are getting equivalent jobs to top up the pension pots, and the big dinosaur killer, this all happens at a time when oil production has plateaued which will effectively prohibit 'growing out' of this crisis.

It might be tomorrow or in 5 years when the Industrial Capitalism Bubble bursts but it will burst. The point where the money needed to keep it going exceeds that which can be created is very near. Christ! Even the US Govt. is getting twitchy......

Right on cue, here's another cheerily entitled article: Prelude to a Crash
One of the major reasons why I am so bearish recently can be described thus:

Buying equities on margin, that is, with loads of borrowed cash, is a sign of excessive risk taking the likes of which invariably takes place whenever the Central Bank creates subsidies for speculation by keeping interest rates pegged below the rate of inflation or by pumping trillions of dollars into the bloated financial system through misguided liquidity programs like QE.

Investors have shrugged off dismal earnings reports, abnormally-high unemployment, flagging demand, droopy incomes, stagnant wages and swollen P/E ratios and loaded up on stocks confident that the Fed’s infusions of liquidity will keep prices going higher. It’s only a matter of time before they see the mistake they’ve made.

Borrowing money on the never-never to buy overvalued assets has been happening more and more frequently - so much so it appears to be the default business model particularly of the UK. It always ends up the same way with the bubble popping. No wonder investment banking is otherwise known as WE ARE DODGY banking as they have the power to take back those worthless assets.

[fuzzy]

Mihe Whitney deserves respect for being about the first to really detail what was about to happen [although plenty have had a bad feeling for 20 yrs] see this for example:

http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Mar05/Whitney0317.htm

[Tarrel]

Christine Lagarde gives the Richard Dimbleby lecture on BBC1 tonight, 22.35. "Explains her thinking on the challenges facing the global economy".

[clv101]

That should be worth listening too, thanks for heads up.

[kenneal - lagger]

She slagged off the increasing inequality in wealth among other things. Not what Osbourne and friends want to hear.

[SleeperService]

She slagged off the increasing inequality in wealth among other things. Not what Osbourne and friends want to hear.

Bit odd coming from the head of an organisation that is facilitating that very thing.....

Need to listen to it again but surprising considering the speaker. There may be a dim glow of recognition
....

[acman]

I see the Times today has a headline that 'Osbourne sees house price boom to last 10 years', I think that's a little optimistic, or maybe panic mode is setting in?
Mind you, the other day, local radio news, had a story that plastic surgery last year had increased 43%, obviously no data, fact etc, with this story, it then cut to supposedly 'an expert' on this who stated 'Yes a big increase last year, and we're finding that increase in the lower economic groups as well, so it shows that the economic recovery is taking hold'.........
Oh wow,

[SleeperService]

I see the Times today has a headline that 'Osbourne sees house price boom to last 10 years', I think that's a little optimistic, or maybe panic mode is setting in?
Mind you, the other day, local radio news, had a story that plastic surgery last year had increased 43%, obviously no data, fact etc, with this story, it then cut to supposedly 'an expert' on this who stated 'Yes a big increase last year, and we're finding that increase in the lower economic groups as well, so it shows that the economic recovery is taking hold'.........
Oh wow,

The plastic surgery item isn't a surprise to me. If people have doubts about their looks when times are good they will increase when times get hard. They'll take a while to bite the bullet and have the work done because 'Looking better will help my self esteem and so help find/keep find a better job'. It's deflection in action with wish fulfillment IMHO. Work (or whatever) is poor, I don't look as I want to, so if I have the surgery everything else will be OK or bearable.

The other point is 43% of how many??

I believe that we're seeing Panic Mode here talking up anything that gives the illusion of BAU and the 'Good Old Days' are back

[RenewableCandy]

Plastic surgery, it's like The Lipstick Economy only worse...

[acman]

I believe that we're seeing Panic Mode here talking up anything that gives the illusion of BAU and the 'Good Old Days' are back

I think that too, maybe we're being 'prepped' for something too, regular ad's on the radio along the lines of your money is safe in the bank, I can't recall ad's like that, and continuing too, perhaps another 'no one could have seen this coming' type event.