Gas alert as demand and prices rise
Moderator: Peak Moderation
- RenewableCandy
- Posts: 12777
- Joined: 12 Sep 2007, 12:13
- Location: York
Hate to be picky, but Meteorological winter does run from beginning of December to end February. "Astronomical" winter runs from winter solstice to spring equinox. However the point is well made, in that most of our most adverse winter weather tends to come after Christmas, and may yet be ahead of us. Having said that, the long range forecast on the Beeb is for the westerlies to prevail for the next month at least.RenewableCandy wrote:Common sense be damned! Meteorologically we are a mere 10 days into winter (though the Met Office, probably by popular demand, use whole months).
In the words of the great Commander Shore (from Stingray), "Anything can happen in the next half hour"! Not many people predicted the late, prolonged cold spell we had earlier this year (although the climatic conditions were quite different from now).
I hope supplies do last out. Every year without a major supply crisis reduces pressure on the Government to support fracking. (Although that battle is probably already lost).
Engage in geo-engineering. Plant a tree today.
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- Posts: 6595
- Joined: 07 Jan 2011, 22:14
- Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont
Well we are coming into what is called the "dead of winter" You can't expect much sweetness and light for the next sixty to ninty days.
Here in Vermont the high today was + 8F The forecast is for a half foot of snow tomorrow and a high of 6F then dropping to -30F Friday morning with flurries. The flurries are what gets to you as they sometimes come by the foot. Wood piles and fuel tanks are taking it hard but that was expected. It was nice today playing cards with friends in our dinning room with the wood furnace perking along one floor below.
Happy new year all you power switchers wherever you are.
Here in Vermont the high today was + 8F The forecast is for a half foot of snow tomorrow and a high of 6F then dropping to -30F Friday morning with flurries. The flurries are what gets to you as they sometimes come by the foot. Wood piles and fuel tanks are taking it hard but that was expected. It was nice today playing cards with friends in our dinning room with the wood furnace perking along one floor below.
Happy new year all you power switchers wherever you are.
- RenewableCandy
- Posts: 12777
- Joined: 12 Sep 2007, 12:13
- Location: York
Meanwhile, OfGem (energy supply watchdog) rules about simplifying tariffs come into force. This has made energy MUCH more costly for people who use very little, because all tariffs are now in the form (standing charge + (cost per unit * no of units) ), rather than having some which were a 2-slope model.
Press Release.
Press Release.
This is a bad move. The previous system was bad but this is terrible.RenewableCandy wrote:Meanwhile, OfGem (energy supply watchdog) rules about simplifying tariffs come into force. This has made energy MUCH more costly for people who use very little, because all tariffs are now in the form (standing charge + (cost per unit * no of units) ), rather than having some which were a 2-slope model.
Press Release.
But it's interesting to compare British Gas with Good Energy.
Taking the 'Standard Tariff' on British Gas in London and paying on Direct Debit we have a 26p/day standing charge and a unit rate of 12.55p/kWh for electricity.
Good Energy is charging 16.78p/day and 14.25p/kWh in London. So if you consume 1900kWh or less then it's cheaper to go with Good Energy than British Gas.
For gas we have British Gas charging 26p/day and 4.69p/kWh and Good Energy charging 22.35p/day and 4.157p/kWh so Good Energy is cheaper for all levels of consumption.
- biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
Ecotricity prices at : http://www.ecotricity.co.uk/for-your-ho ... our-prices
- RenewableCandy
- Posts: 12777
- Joined: 12 Sep 2007, 12:13
- Location: York
There is a significant difference between temperatures in North America and Europe this year. Even Russia is above freezing, but I understand US/Canada has had it pretty bad so far this winter. It's partly what's driving the ferocious storms we've been having over the southern UK for the last month.vtsnowedin wrote: Well we are coming into what is called the "dead of winter" You can't expect much sweetness and light for the next sixty to ninty days.
Here in Vermont the high today was + 8F The forecast is for a half foot of snow tomorrow and a high of 6F then dropping to -30F Friday morning with flurries. The flurries are what gets to you as they sometimes come by the foot. Wood piles and fuel tanks are taking it hard but that was expected. It was nice today playing cards with friends in our dinning room with the wood furnace perking along one floor below.
Happy new year all you power switchers wherever you are.
Engage in geo-engineering. Plant a tree today.
- mikepepler
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3096
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Rye, UK
- Contact:
I switched earlier this year to the only supplier I could find that has no standing charge and a flat rate tariff. They're not especially green, but they are ethical in terms of charging everyone the same, no matter how they pay. I had been with Ecotricity before, but there was no way I was going to pay £200 a year for £20 worth of gas...RenewableCandy wrote:Meanwhile, OfGem (energy supply watchdog) rules about simplifying tariffs come into force. This has made energy MUCH more costly for people who use very little, because all tariffs are now in the form (standing charge + (cost per unit * no of units) ), rather than having some which were a 2-slope model.
Press Release.
I switched to: http://ebico.org.uk/
Just did a back of the envelope calculation, and for my level of consumption of electricity, about 8KWh/day (estimated, in my new house) the difference in the annual bill between this and my current supplier would only be about £10. Well within margin of error.
There is no real market in the energy sector. All the talk of the market is just to hide the private sector monopoly.
There is no real market in the energy sector. All the talk of the market is just to hide the private sector monopoly.
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- Posts: 6595
- Joined: 07 Jan 2011, 22:14
- Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont
It is cold enough here today that the diesel fuel in my tractor gelled up and I had to cut it with kerosene to get her to run so I could plow the foot of dry snow we got. Still looking like -30F tomorrow morning. It is hard working on mechanical stuff when it is that cold and windy to boot. Global warming my A@##.Tarrel wrote:There is a significant difference between temperatures in North America and Europe this year. Even Russia is above freezing, but I understand US/Canada has had it pretty bad so far this winter. It's partly what's driving the ferocious storms we've been having over the southern UK for the last month.vtsnowedin wrote: Well we are coming into what is called the "dead of winter" You can't expect much sweetness and light for the next sixty to ninty days.
Here in Vermont the high today was + 8F The forecast is for a half foot of snow tomorrow and a high of 6F then dropping to -30F Friday morning with flurries. The flurries are what gets to you as they sometimes come by the foot. Wood piles and fuel tanks are taking it hard but that was expected. It was nice today playing cards with friends in our dinning room with the wood furnace perking along one floor below.
Happy new year all you power switchers wherever you are.
- RenewableCandy
- Posts: 12777
- Joined: 12 Sep 2007, 12:13
- Location: York
Rover says that's not far shy of the temperature on Mars !
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- Posts: 6595
- Joined: 07 Jan 2011, 22:14
- Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont
Good place for it.RenewableCandy wrote:Rover says that's not far shy of the temperature on Mars !
- adam2
- Site Admin
- Posts: 10898
- Joined: 02 Jul 2007, 17:49
- Location: North Somerset, twinned with Atlantis
A UK gas shortage this winter now looks most unlikely.
Storage is still about 80% full, though now starting to deplete.
Winter* is now over half* over, so with less than 50% of winter left, but about 80% of the gas left there seems little grounds for concern.
Much colder weather and significant drawdowns are possible, arguably probable, but that is of little concern since supplies should last until spring even if used at the maximum likely rate.
We remain vulnerable to war, coup, revolt etc in gas exporting or gas transit counties, and to natural disasters, but in the absence of such, should be OK.
Still rather worrying in the longer term though.
*there is more than one definition of "winter", but a good common-sense definition is December, January, and Febuary.
Storage is still about 80% full, though now starting to deplete.
Winter* is now over half* over, so with less than 50% of winter left, but about 80% of the gas left there seems little grounds for concern.
Much colder weather and significant drawdowns are possible, arguably probable, but that is of little concern since supplies should last until spring even if used at the maximum likely rate.
We remain vulnerable to war, coup, revolt etc in gas exporting or gas transit counties, and to natural disasters, but in the absence of such, should be OK.
Still rather worrying in the longer term though.
*there is more than one definition of "winter", but a good common-sense definition is December, January, and Febuary.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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- Posts: 6595
- Joined: 07 Jan 2011, 22:14
- Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont
All depends on where you are of course. Here we want wood piles and snowplows to be in order and ready to go October first as Halloween can be a snowy trickster and furnaces will kick on at night starting mid month or so. Then most years the snow is gone about April fools day but about one year in seven will last until May first. So six months of winter with a chance of one or two months extra, this will always hit you when your personnel wood pile is short. I consider a 200 day supply to be adequate going into the fall.adam2 wrote:*there is more than one definition of "winter", but a good common-sense definition is December, January, and Febuary.