Abstract. In this paper, I present and discuss results from
a climate model simulation of the ‘Middle Earth’ of elves,
dwarves, and hobbits (and not forgetting wizards such as my-
self). These are put into context by also presenting simula-
tions of the climate of the ‘Modern Earth’ of humans, and
of the ‘Dinosaur Earth’, when dinosaurs ruled the Earth 65
million years ago.
Several aspects of the Middle Earth simulation are dis-
cussed, including the importance of prevailing wind drec-
tion for elvish sailing boats, the effect of heat and drought
on the vegetation of Mordor, and the rain-shadow effects of
theMistyMountains. I also identify those places in theMod-
ern Earth which have the most similar climate to the regions
of The Shire and Mordor.
The importance of assessing ‘climate sensitivity’ (the re-
sponse of the Earth to a doubling of atmospheric carbon diox-
ide concentrations) is discussed, including the utility of mod-
elling and reconstructing past climate change over timescales
of millions of years. I also discuss the role of the Intergov-
ernmental/Interkingdom Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
assessing climate change, and the responsibilities placed on
policymakers.
Well, has anyone noticed how popular was the activity of writing sci-fi, among the citizens of the USSR and (former) associated bloc? The words "Robot" and "Dalek" for example come from slavonic-language words for "work" and "far-away" respectively. Anyway, the nice thing about writing sci-fi, if you were a soviet/other-communist citizen, was that it allowed you to deal with issues which, were you to set them on earth and in the present day, would swiftly earn you a 1-way ticket to somewhere very cold!
And so I wonder, are the Bristolians above doing the same kind of thing?..in order to avoid getting sent somewhere "virtually" cold?
Lord of the Rings climate is like Lincolnshire experts say
Scientists have worked out the weather conditions in The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings with the Shire are found to be like Lincolnshire and Leicestershire.
A climate model was used by experts to simulate and investigate conditions in Middle Earth.
The results showed the Shire, where Bilbo Baggins lived before his adventure began described in The Hobbit, was similar to Lincolnshire and Leicestershire.
But Mordor, the land of the evil Sauron, was more like Los Angeles and western Texas, the University of Bristol team found.
Professor Richard Pancost, director of the university's Cabot Institute, said: "Because climate models are based on fundamental scientific processes, they are able not only to simulate the climate of the modern Earth, but can also be easily adapted to simulate any planet, real or imagined, so long as the underlying continental positions and heights and ocean depths are known."
The results are presented in a paper, said to be penned by the wizard Radagast the Brown, a Tolkien character the team describe as "probably the first environmental scientist".
In the paper, carried out in the scientists' own time and not funded, Radagast explains that the elves set sail from the Grey Havens as the prevailing winds were favourable for their journey for the West.
He claims the existence of a dry climate east of the Misty Mountains was because the mountains cast a rain-shadow over the region.
Dr Dan Lunt said: "This work is a bit of fun, but it does have a serious side.
"A core part of our work here in Bristol involves using state-of-the-art climate models to simulate and understand the past climate of our Earth.
"By comparing our results to evidence of past climate change, for example from tree rings, ice cores, and ancient fossils of plants and animals, we can validate the climate models, and gain confidence in the accuracy of their predictions of future climate."
