Current Oil Price

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Dec 2013, 10:38

vtsnowedin wrote:
emordnilap wrote:Price still going down.

.
From where? It is still $6.60 above its low for the year.

Granted but the trend over the last quarter is down. Prices at the pumps are keeping the plebs smiling too, poor misguided souls.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 04 Dec 2013, 12:25

Brent was at a 3 month high yesterday.

Sterling is stronger against the dollar. The price in dollars has been on average about 2-3% down in the last year. Inflation linked rises in fuel tax were canceled again by the government, reducing the tax levels in real terms.

There is a time lag between rising oil prices and rising pump prices.

People have mentally adapted to fuel prices substantially higher than those that triggered street protests not so long ago.

odaeio · Post by **odaeio** » 04 Dec 2013, 13:06

Nothing to concern us at all - Iran can produce economically even at $20.00 a barrel.........

Speaking to Iranian journalists in Farsi minutes before ministers went into a closed-door meeting, Bijan Zangeneh, Iran’s oil minister, said: “Under any circumstances we will reach 4m b/d even if the price of oil falls to $20 per barrel.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be2d119e-5cd2 ... z2mViCAEi6

This oil business is just getting stupid now......

Oil "ministers" who have no clue about production costs?!?!?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 04 Dec 2013, 13:33

$96.04 today 12-3-13 up $2.22 for the day. I fail to see a downward trend. I quote WTi only as that is what the ticker tracks; choose which ever market price suites you. Local gas price here is $3.58 for gas and $4.02/ US gallon for diesel. These are about $0.25 less then a year ago. Again no downward trend visible and just waiting for the next disruption to supply to jump up a big notch or two.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 04 Dec 2013, 13:35

There is a reason why Saudi Arabian princes have (had) a reputation for being free spenders. I still see estimates for some SA wells having operating costs of $5 a barrel. However, the new fields they are now developing are probably not economic below $50-70. They have no more new fields in the pipeline once the latest is fully on-stream in 2015.

Iran's oil fields are relatively undeveloped because of decades of war and sanctions. They probably do still have some reserves that would be profitably developed at $20 if they have access to the knowledge , hardware and skilled manpower. 4m barrels might be possible if they can get the sanctions lifted, but not for at least 5 years given the state of their industry, and it would still only bring them back to their 1980 level of production (from memory). 4M barrels AND $20? Not going to happen.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Dec 2013, 14:21

http://www.oil-price.net/dashboard.php

Roll over the timescales. Could be at the bottom of a year-long trough.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 05 Dec 2013, 12:40

Osbourne has cancelled next years fuel tax rise. Again.

This policy was inevitable once it became clear to the politicians that the oil supply was permanently constrained. Rather than tax the use of the finite and declining energy source, to invest in alternatives, cut the taxes (in real terms) so that we get a short term competitive advantage of cheaper fuel than our high tax neighbours in Europe. Of course, we will spend more on fuel as a result, and the balance of payments will get worse, but returning to endless economic growth is all that matters, innit ?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 05 Dec 2013, 12:55

And with all that growth we can afford tax breaks to the gas fracking ponzi scheme and build a new nuke in Anglesey to ensure high electricity prices and a legacy for future generations to the end of time. Surprising Osborne didn't announce mining the Moon's cheese.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 05 Dec 2013, 15:31

vtsnowedin wrote: $96.04 today 12-3-13 up $2.22 for the day. I fail to see a downward trend. I quote WTi only as that is what the ticker tracks; .

And $97 today. Seems talk of oil price crash seems exaggerated.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 05 Dec 2013, 16:12

The southern end of the Keystone pipeline opens on 4th Jan. 0.7Mbd flowing to the Mexican Gulf refineries. This will clear the Cushing glut that has held down WTI price. All we are seeing is the future price reacting to this, WTI will be $105+ within a month. The rest of the world won't notice the difference.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 05 Dec 2013, 16:31

PS_RalphW wrote:The southern end of the Keystone pipeline opens on 4th Jan. 0.7Mbd flowing to the Mexican Gulf refineries. This will clear the Cushing glut that has held down WTI price. All we are seeing is the future price reacting to this, WTI will be $105+ within a month. The rest of the world won't notice the difference.

Can the Gulf coast cope with all that crude? I'd heard they were already flooded with oil in PADD3 that had nowhere else to go since 'murican crude can't be sold abroad.

Still, pipeline changes are always fun times in the US crude market.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 21 Dec 2013, 13:37

$99.32, will our ticker hit the ton by Christmas?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Dec 2013, 14:08

Tess wrote:Can the Gulf coast cope with all that crude? I'd heard they were already flooded with oil in PADD3 that had nowhere else to go since 'murican crude can't be sold abroad.

Once at the gulf coast they can ship it to east coast refineries and turn back tankers coming from the ME. There is little point in selling American crude abroad when we are still importing seven million bpd. Any barrel sold will have to be replaced with an imported one. There are of course exceptions like Alaskan crude to Japan which make economic sense when transportation costs are considered.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 21 Dec 2013, 14:14

vtsnowedin wrote:
Tess wrote:Can the Gulf coast cope with all that crude? I'd heard they were already flooded with oil in PADD3 that had nowhere else to go since 'murican crude can't be sold abroad.

Once at the gulf coast they can ship it to east coast refineries and turn back tankers coming from the ME. There is little point in selling American crude abroad when we are still importing seven million bpd. Any barrel sold will have to be replaced with an imported one. There are of course exceptions like Alaskan crude to Japan which make economic sense when transportation costs are considered.

Yes, but if American crude was allowed to be sold abroad, that massive WTI-Brent spread would have made it financially viable to send crude cargoes of WTI over to Europe, regardless of what other crudes replaced it. But, of course it's not permitted, so moot point.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Dec 2013, 15:06

Tess wrote:[quote="vtsnowedinYes, but if American crude was allowed to be sold abroad, that massive WTI-Brent spread would have made it financially viable to send crude cargoes of WTI over to Europe, regardless of what other crudes replaced it. But, of course it's not permitted, so moot point.

So you want me to load up a tanker in Texas and bring it to the UK and sell it to you for $95 a barrel then swing down through the Suez and fill up at some port where they blow up pipelines and people on a regular basis with Brent at $105 and ship it back to New Jersey?