flood watch

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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

emordnilap wrote:Of course not. They're random, remember? :lol:
If you roll a fair die and get six sixes in a row the probability that the next roll turns up a six is 1/6.

If you get a lot of floods it might be worth checking the ocean surface temperature before guessing the probability of a flood next year.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

A prize-winning headline, if ever there was one:

Floods devastate an already bankrupt and blood-soaked Acapulco

Lovely. They're having a tourism promotion.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

Colorado's been having a hard time too, possibly six dead.
Emergency officials offered a first glimpse at the scope of the damage. Counties reported some 1,500 homes have been destroyed and about 17,500 damaged
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

http://rt.com/news/saudi-arabia-rare-flooding-844/

When Saudi Arabia is under water, you have to wonder...
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

As the deniers say "It's just weather!" but with so much of it you have to wonder. And I wonder what the insurers are saying.
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Apparently the ABI is saying rather a lot "behind the scenes".
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

kenneal - lagger wrote: And I wonder what the insurers are saying.
They're not just saying, they're also paying for climate science research.
kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

That would make sense for them.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

http://www.cccep.ac.uk/Research/Program ... /home.aspx
The Munich Re programme

Evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector

This research programme is funded by Munich Re and benefits from research collaborations across the industry and public sectors. It is a comprehensive research programme that focuses on the assessment of the risks from climate change, and on the appropriate responses, to inform decision making in the private and public sectors.
A number of activities are being carried out as part of the programme, including the publication of technical papers and industry briefings, symposia, business roundtables and workshops.
ujoni08
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Floods

Post by ujoni08 »

And Cape Town/ the Western Cape of South Africa:

http://ewn.co.za/2013/11/16/CT-mops-up- ... r-flooding
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

kenneal - lagger wrote:As the deniers say "It's just weather!" ...........
Apart from melodrama, is there any evidence that it isn't? Noah had to build a bleedin' great ark, perhaps this is just Big-G flexing muscles before the real thing (and perhaps it isn't, perhaps it's just weather).

I remember floods, earthquakes and volcano reports on the news in the 1960s, was that climate change? Are there any more incidents nowadays?
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Apparently there are, if you go by time-calibrated £-worth of damage done (hence the insurance industry's interest in it). Of course, some of that is simply going to be be because there are more people, and more buildings to destroy, but the rest is directly attributable to climate change.
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woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

It is the number and frequency of incidents, not the cost of (bloated?) claims.
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

CC-type models don't predict an increase in the frequency of *all* hurricanes (for example), only a change in their severity. e.g. more cat5s in a given "hurricane season". Actually, that should be nice and easy to prove (or disprove): anemometers are fairly straightforwrds and reliable things.
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