Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **adam2** » 14 Nov 2013, 11:36

Wind production at present is over 5GW, hovering around 5.2/5.3 GW and has been for some hours, not a record but still impressive.
At this rate the emptying or filling of gas reserves will be dictated not by temperature (more or less demand for heating) but by wind speed and the consequent variation in electricity produced from wind.

A few weeks of windy weather could make the difference between "not enough" gas and "just enough"

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 14 Nov 2013, 11:43

adam2 wrote:Wind production at present is over 5GW, hovering around 5.2/5.3 GW and has been for some hours, not a record but still impressive.
At this rate the emptying or filling of gas reserves will be dictated not by temperature (more or less demand for heating) but by wind speed and the consequent variation in electricity produced from wind.

A few weeks of windy weather could make the difference between "not enough" gas and "just enough"

Yep, we have a right hooley blowing up here at the moment! Produces nice efficient combustion in the Rayburn too.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 14 Nov 2013, 17:18

I think we have about 10 GW of wind capacity now: it's itemised on the UK Wind Energy Database.

Post by **adam2** » 07 Dec 2013, 11:23

Gas demand rising, prices rising, storage emptying though at over 85% full no grounds for concern as yet.

Not long ago, 50 pence a therm wholesale was regarded as improbably high, now 65 pence seems to be the new normal and 70 pence nothing to remark upon.

odaeio · Post by **odaeio** » 07 Dec 2013, 18:36

We do appear to have brought some more wind online - I saw over 6 gig the other day, and the bloke increased the meter to read 8 gig from 6 gig to be able to show this. Am not complacent though, we appear to be demanding somewhat higher than last year, already regularly hitting just over 50 gig at peak demand, whereas last year high's seemed to be around 45 or so. Also, over the last few days, when wind is abysmal, we seem to have been really pushing the boat out - first time I have seen pumped storage, and biomass and hydro all at near flat out rates, and the French ICT at 2 gig. (It usually sits around 1 gig). Regularly doing gas at over 20 gig and coal at 15 to 17 gig. Even saw nuclear at over 8 gig one day when it normally hovers around 7.3 or so - but that didn't last long before it was back to around 7 ish. My guesstimate looks to me like we lost 5 gig off coal fired, while increasing max demand by around 5 gig, and gaining 1 gig in wind, when it blows. If we are making up another 5 gig on gas - and we ran short last year without the extra gas generation because we an extra 5 gig of coal - am not really expecting us to make it through this winter without the odd "storm" causing "widespread loss of electric" which could take a week or three before the "engineers" could access the "grid/lines" to "fix" and restore power. Scotland and the islands took the brunt of it last winter - they even supplied a few with diesel generators for a while - wonder if it will be Scotland gets it again this year?

Am watching the oil and OCGT standby's, if they get hauled into service, without other stuff in unplanned shutdown, then I WILL get worried.....

Storms are a godsend when one is struggling to keep up, not only can one keep the lights off for extended periods for large swathes of the population, but one can of course send out hundreds of engineers to do routine maintenance - much more efficient to do this on "dead" lines, and it it gives MSM hundreds of hours of footage of engineers hanging off poles to show the sheeple how hard one is working to "restore" power. Not only does one conserve short stocks of gas, but the maintenance gets done in record time, AND one can put the prices up to "replace" antiquated infrastructure in order to "prevent" the same thing occurring in the future! Yep, a couple of trees down on a line or two can save SO much embarrassment, and the sheeple are none the wiser......

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 07 Dec 2013, 19:30

Storms are a godsend when one is struggling to keep up, not only can one keep the lights off for extended periods for large swathes of the population, but one can of course send out hundreds of engineers to do routine maintenance - much more efficient to do this on "dead" lines, and it it gives MSM hundreds of hours of footage of engineers hanging off poles to show the sheeple how hard one is working to "restore" power. Not only does one conserve short stocks of gas, but the maintenance gets done in record time, AND one can put the prices up to "replace" antiquated infrastructure in order to "prevent" the same thing occurring in the future! Yep, a couple of trees down on a line or two can save SO much embarrassment, and the sheeple are none the wiser......

... and they tend to be quite windy!

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 18 Dec 2013, 16:50

DRAFTY OUT (thanks Biff for the warning)

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 18 Dec 2013, 19:31

Looking at the Jet Stream forecast the weather looks to be much the same until Boxing Day when cold air will descend from the north over the whole country for a couple of days. After that it looks pretty chaotic, the jet stream that is, well into the New Year. I'll leave the forecasting of that to the professionals.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Dec 2013, 10:53

A win. I "cycled" home yesterday (with a not-insubstantial weight of food I'd bought, in the pannier) in top gear almost all the way, thanks to a terrific wind from the south.

The winds had abated this morning for the reverse journey to work.

Thanks, Gaia.

Post by **adam2** » 31 Dec 2013, 20:15

I suspect that natural gas stocks will be sufficient this winter.

Just over 80% full at present, and more or less static, certainly no substantial drawdown.
By common sense standards we are one third of the way through winter, but have used a lot less than one third of the gas.

The recent mild temperatures have reduced heating demand, and the windy weather has increased wind power production.

We remain vulnerable to any exceptional event such as war, coup, or revolution affecting supplies, but in the absence of such events we should scrape through OK.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 31 Dec 2013, 20:41

Common sense be damned! Meteorologically we are a mere 10 days into winter (though the Met Office, probably by popular demand, use whole months).

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 01 Jan 2014, 11:35

The longer it goes without the UK having a gas crisis (i.e. actually running out) the worse it'll be when it happens. Only once we've run out of storage will people/govt finally do something concrete about the issue.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 01 Jan 2014, 13:33

Apparently the network of "gasometers" (i.e. the big cylindrical things you used to find in each city, for storing gas) is being decommissioned!! Anybody else know owt about this?

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 01 Jan 2014, 13:41

They've been vanishing for years.

Post by **adam2** » 01 Jan 2014, 15:54

RenewableCandy wrote:Apparently the network of "gasometers" (i.e. the big cylindrical things you used to find in each city, for storing gas) is being decommissioned!! Anybody else know owt about this?

Yes, numbers have been dwindling for years.
Gas holders go back to the days of locally manufactured coal gas, prior to the natural gas era.
It was not feasible to manufacture coal gas at exactly the rate of consumption, gas holders being used to balance supply and demand.

Some survived into the natural gas era due to undersized pipelines to a town that could meet the average demand but not the peaks.

Of little use today as they typically held only a day or two of gas, for a small area.