Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[biffvernon]

This is more than I expected,

You can be excused from nor expecting the warmest October on record, what with it never having happened before.

[odaeio]

Looking at the grid dashboard, it seems we are about 5Gw down on coal for the same period last year - last year we appeared to be running coal at around 20Gw at peak demand, but this year it appears to average around 15? Have we lost 5Gw coal capacity from plant closures and/or other? If so, are we hoping to make this up by running gas plant higher? Given last years touch and go for a day or so, that doesn't look like a good idea to me.......

Also, the "Actual Storage" graph on the "prevailing View" page for gas seems to have been "broken" for a good many days now..........

[adam2]

Dont know the exact figures, but yes available coal buring capacity has been reduced by roughly 5GW.

Most of this reduction has been and will be made up by burning more gas.
Some of the reduction in coal burning capacity will be offset by more electricity from wind, and some by more electricity imports.

Wind power helps little with peak demand since it might be calm at the time, but it does help very considerably with the gas supply situation. Every GWH from wind is a corresponding amount of gas not burnt and therefore still in store for later use.

Electricity imports help to an extent, but are detrimental to our balance of payments and might not be available when most needed.

[RenewableCandy]

We should have a "Date Russia starts to cut off the gas" sweepstake on Board

[biffvernon]

Unit One (490MW) and Unit Two (490MW) at Ferrybridge Power Station close by end March 2014.

[adam2]

Unit One (490MW) and Unit Two (490MW) at Ferrybridge Power Station close by end March 2014.

Unlikely to matter much for THIS winter which should be virtualy over by then, but a bit worrying for NEXT winter.

Another concern for THIS winter would be if anything major breaks at either of the 2 units refered to above.
I doubt that any significant spend on repairs would be authorised for plant about to close anyway. Repairs and maintenance have probably already been reduced to the minimum possible.
Not much point in spending money on maintaining something that is closing soon.

[raspberry-blower]

Looking at the grid dashboard, it seems we are about 5Gw down on coal for the same period last year - last year we appeared to be running coal at around 20Gw at peak demand, but this year it appears to average around 15? Have we lost 5Gw coal capacity from plant closures and/or other? If so, are we hoping to make this up by running gas plant higher?

The reason why we have lost this is down to the Large Combustion Plant Directive

In a nutshell - all coal fired plants had to pass strict emissions standards by 2015 - if not they should be closed by the end of that year. Due to the perverse energy market conditions prevalent in the UK what has happened is that many coal fired power stations slated for closure have been running full pelt now to get in their full allocation of hours - and are subsequently closing down early leaving a gap in the UK leccy generation capacity

[biffvernon]

coal fired power stations slated for closure have been running full pelt now to get in their full allocation of hours

I think some of the running at full pelt is also because the fuel cost for running an existing power station is lower for coal than for gas at the moment. The grid will call first on the plant with the lowest running cost i.e. fuel cost, wind then nuclear then coal then gas. Or put it another way, wind then nuclear then coal operators will sell to the grid for whatever they can get, gas users will only supply when the spot price is high enough.

[raspberry-blower]

coal fired power stations slated for closure have been running full pelt now to get in their full allocation of hours

I think some of the running at full pelt is also because the fuel cost for running an existing power station is lower for coal than for gas at the moment. The grid will call first on the plant with the lowest running cost i.e. fuel cost, wind then nuclear then coal then gas. Or put it another way, wind then nuclear then coal operators will sell to the grid for whatever they can get, gas users will only supply when the spot price is high enough.

That's exactly what I meant when I said perverse market conditions.
After all, are the environmental impacts accurately borne out in these running costs?

[biffvernon]

are the environmental impacts accurately borne out in these running costs?

Accurately? No, not at all, not even a little bit. There is pretty much complete externalisation of global warming costs in fossil fuel pricing.

The disparity in nuclear insurance is interesting - in the UK nukes cary E247m cover (bugger all) whereas in Germany there is unlimited liability on operators - they have to use up all their assets and go bankrupt in extremis plus E2billion government liability.

[odaeio]

Dunno if I am reading this right, and is the grid watch thingy sort of accurate? It shows 4 Inter-connectors, Dutch, French, Irish and East-West - also Irish. Looking at it we seem to be importing at flat out virtually constantly from Holland - 1Gw, it's max capacity - and France - was around 1.5 Gw, but since Monday it's fluctuated quite a lot and right now is running at 2 Gw, it's max capacity. We appear to constantly export to Ireland a trivial 0.75 Gw combined. The pop-up note when one puts the cursor over the dial says we import in summer when France has an excess and export in winter when we can "sell our excess from coal fired plant profitably". I have never seen any export, only import. Are there other inter-connectors we can rely on if things get tough this winter, or are we already pulling in everything we can get? What I am hearing from mainstream media and what this dashboard is showing as actual, 5 minute updates, appear to be completely different things.......

http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php

It also shows 5 Gw of installed wind, and I have never seen more than that produced, is there a few more gig of wind coming online in, like, the next few weeks? If not, we appear to be running VERY close to the bone indeed, not much room to bring on alternative supply barring ramping up gas and perhaps firing up the oil and ocgt plant which is currently doing nothing, and even then they look like it would only give us another 4 Gw or so combined. Looks to me that if we run out of gas it's lights out, irrespective of how much we are willing to pay - unless there are ways of importing gas fast enough to cover real time usage, and that's if the gas is physically available to be imported. I sincerely hope someone can show me that I am wrong...............

[cubes]

The other interconnector is rolling blackouts!

[woodburner]

http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php

It also shows 5 Gw of installed wind, and I have never seen more than that produced, is there a few more gig of wind coming online in, like, the next few weeks? If not, we appear to be running VERY close to the bone indeed, not much room to bring on alternative supply barring ramping up gas and perhaps firing up the oil and ocgt plant which is currently doing nothing, and even then they look like it would only give us another 4 Gw or so combined. Looks to me that if we run out of gas it's lights out, irrespective of how much we are willing to pay - unless there are ways of importing gas fast enough to cover real time usage, and that's if the gas is physically available to be imported. I sincerely hope someone can show me that I am wrong...............

You are right about running out of gas being a problem, but that would apply to coal as well. There appears to be a substantial margin in both these capacities. The margin is necessary as it would be possible all wind generation stopped in the event a large persistent anticyclone existed over the UK (common in winter). As the UK has to import much of its fuel now, better pray for continued supplies.

[adam2]

There is well over over 5GW of installed wind capacity that registers on the gridwatch website. I have seen over 5GW production from wind, but not very often. The winter average is probably about half that
I do not think that the limit of the dial on the website is directly related to the total installed wind power capacity, more likely as with any virtual or physical instrument the limit on the dial represents the designers view of the likely maximum reading.

There are also numerous small grid tied wind turbines, the output of these does not appear on the gridwatch website as they are not metered in real time. The output of small grid tied generators simply appears as a reduction in load.

Imports via the interconnectors are usefull but it is unwise to rely on them too much. Interconnectors break, and the exporting country might decide that they need the power themselves.

[odaeio]

Thanks Adam 2, yep, I did have the notion in my head that the limits on the dials were indicative of the maximum capacity, as opposed to being the maximum anticipated production. Am seeing things slightly differently now.