clv101 wrote:Clegg had a majority of 15,284 last time, he's relatively safe. Need a LibDem seat in a student area with a small majority.
Undoubtedly you're right that there are more vulnerable seats, but I personally suspect that Clegg would be in serious trouble if Russell Brand stood against him. Why? Here are the last results from that seat:
Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 27,324
Conservative Nicola Bates 12,040
Labour Jack Scott 8,228
UKIP Nigel James 1,195
Green Steve Barnard 919
The tory vote will either stay about the same, or they'll lose some to UKIP. The Greens probably would not stand at all against Russell Brand, and he'd pick up nearly the entire green vote. He'd probably also pick up the lion's share of the existing labour vote, given that he is calling for a leftist revolution. He would also prompt people who do not normally vote at all, or currently vote for obscure parties, to vote for him. So I'm guessing he'd already be starting from a base of about 8000 before we take the libdem vote into account. Then when you consider that libdems can protest-vote in this seat
without serious risk of letting a tory in? If just one third of the lib dem vote (and remember how pissed off the people who voted libdem are with Clegg!) switched to Brand, Clegg would be in trouble.
I reckon he'd lose it.
Most of the chunk of the electorate that normally votes libdem are utterly f****d off with the libdems in general and Clegg in particular. You know why. They had one "flagship policy", and it was to do with the cost of higher education. The moment they got elected, and were faced with actually governing, out the window it went. This might have been acceptable if they had, in return, won the bigger prize of electoral reform. But they didn't, and this was a direct failure of Clegg himself, who was swindled by the Tories into agreeing to a referendum he was always going to lose, because the Tories were always going to play it dirty. And he doesn't care, because at the end of the day he's going to be alright, Jack. At the end of the day, even if he loses his seat, he's still already got a load of money behind him, and won't have trouble getting a nice, well-paid job.