Latest DECC Energy Trends is out

Post by **mikepepler** » 26 Sep 2013, 11:18

We imported more than half our energy in the UK in Q2 2013...

I've written a summary on my blog: http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... f-its.html

Full document is here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2013

Post by **clv101** » 26 Sep 2013, 12:25

That's a great summary - thanks!

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 26 Sep 2013, 19:35

So it looks like 7GW of generators have been decommissioned, and 5GW of renewables "capacity" is available, and long term gas store is 80%. Let's hope it's either a warm winter, or the wind blows a lot and the sun shines at night.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 28 Sep 2013, 10:55

Yes, on the face of it, it's good that the shut-down of coal capacity has been matched by an increase in renewables capacity. However, if the variability in renewables-based output has to be increasingly plugged by spinning up gas-powered plant, and that gas is increasingly being imported, I wonder where that leaves energy bills for winter 2014/15 and beyond?

(Oh yeah...just remembered..If Ed wins the next election, he's going to freeze the prices. So that's all right then.)

It's funny how long one can jog along under the (not unreasonable) assumption that the Government actually has a coherent energy policy, only to wake up and realise that it's another one of life's little disappointments!

(Great summary by the way. I'll definitely read the full report. Thanks for posting.)

Post by **adam2** » 28 Sep 2013, 13:57

I suspect that plant due to close may in fact remain in use if closure would result in the lights going out.

In the case of plant that has already closed, then reopening is most improbable, it is likely that staff have been laid off or found other work, and that statuatory inspection certificates have expired.
In some cases dismantling may have started.

In the event of a long or severe winter, or any major breakdowns then I forsee some very expensive running of oil burning plant and OCGTs
This is likely to increase not only electricity prices but also gas prices due to extra demand.

The UK/France interconnector seems unreliable in recent years and any failure will make the situation worse

IT would be well for individuals to prepare, but I think as a nation we have left too late to avert power cuts, if not this year then in near future years.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 28 Sep 2013, 19:36

Tarrel wrote:Yes, on the face of it, it's good that the shut-down of coal capacity has been matched by an increase in renewables capacity.

Loss of 7GW vs increase of 5GW does not equal a match. In addition, the 5GW is only "capacity", not actual output. As far as wind generators are concerned this could mean near zero if we are sat in the middle of a persistent anticyclone for a couple of weeks.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 28 Sep 2013, 21:54

Loss of 7GW vs increase of 5GW does not equal a match.

The 7GW includes shut-down of oil generating capacity, whereas I was looking at coal, but fair comment.

In addition, the 5GW is only "capacity", not actual output

Yes, hence the comment about gas having to fill the gap if the wind isn't blowing (or the sun isn't shining).

Now read the report in full. Very interesting. One thing puzzles me (maybe someone can shed light?); In the "Gas" section it refers to input to "Marine Bunkers". I assume this is long term storage? If so, it looks like we put a lot more into LTS during Q2 2013 compared to the same quarter in 2012. This surprises me, as a lot of Q2 was unusually cold this year, and you'd have expected most of the gas to be used to meet demand. Maybe in 2012 the storage just wasn't so depleted and therefore didn't need filling as much?

Pepperman · Post by **Pepperman** » 30 Sep 2013, 09:59

Tarrel wrote:One thing puzzles me (maybe someone can shed light?); In the "Gas" section it refers to input to "Marine Bunkers". I assume this is long term storage?

Marine Bunkers appears in the Total Energy and Oil sections only, not gas. It refers to fuel (gas oil and fuel oil) used for shipping.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 30 Sep 2013, 10:36

Pepperman wrote:
Tarrel wrote:One thing puzzles me (maybe someone can shed light?); In the "Gas" section it refers to input to "Marine Bunkers". I assume this is long term storage?
Marine Bunkers appears in the Total Energy and Oil sections only, not gas. It refers to fuel (gas oil and fuel oil) used for shipping.

Whoops. Thanks!

Post by **adam2** » 30 Sep 2013, 10:37

I have deleted a number of insulting or off topic remarks, and other posts that though acceptable in themselves no longer made sense. Please try to remain reasonably polite and at least somwhat on topic