Three Nails in the Coffin of Peak Oil

[vtsnowedin]

I also don't see any real recover now, just stimulus created fake jobs and fudged jobs numbers with huge bills coming due to pay for the postponement of the first bounce down the cliff.

[raspberry-blower]

I also don't see any real recover now, just stimulus created fake jobs and fudged jobs numbers with huge bills coming due to pay for the postponement of the first bounce down the cliff.

Spot on VT.

We are still in the midst of the financial crash of 2008 - any "economic recovery" is the result of all the billions of £/US$ from QE programmes instigated that has finally trickled into the economy. Nothing else.

After all that printing, economic activity is still below 2008 levels - in the West, at least. This is what Peak Oil actually looks like folks - grinding to a halt, years of stagnation, declining standards of living - it is the long emergency. TPTB are managing the descent the best they can - while all the time looting from the 99% to give to the 1%.

[jonny2mad]

Well read it don’t see anything to make me think there won’t be a fast crash, you can read through the comments and there are some other people who agree with me, if you haven’t read the comments .

And LATOC may have crashed but that was because of matt the fluffy optimist who became a astrologer , the mass of the doomers are still as full of doom they just moved to other places to discuss woe.

Anyway fast crash and big die-off at best, at worst thermo nuclear war and extinction.

Vast migrations of people murder mayhem and barbarism, we are fast approaching a cliff the other side of the cliff will be mighty different



http://www.feasta.org/documents/risk_re ... _Point.pdf

Enjoy these last days of apple turnovers, when your running from hordes a cannibals in the ruins of port talbot likely you will know I was right

[woodburner]

Well read it don’t see anything to make me think there won’t be a fast crash, you can read through the comments and there are some other people who agree with me, if you haven’t read the comments .
<snip>
Enjoy these last days of apple turnovers, when your running from hordes a cannibals in the ruins of port talbot likely you will know I was right

There are even (or is it odd) people who agree with me. Doesn't make anybody right just because others think the same. Some people think fracking is ok, or GM crops are ok, or sugar is a natural substance so it must be good for you. **ukwits think a growth economy for ever is ok. Are they right because someone else agrees with them?

[johnhemming]

According to the IEA, however, peak oil has now happened for OECD.

[PS_RalphW]

Symptomatic of this yesterday the markets took a hit for a couple of percent drop - on the news that the US economy is picking up. The reasoning is that when the economy improves, the government will be forced to ease back on QE and/or raise interest rates. This will then put the breaks back on, and the markets were just reacting to that prediction.

Interestingly, analyst on R4 suggested that the UK would not follow a US rate rise, but allow Sterling to fall in value, raising domestic oil and import prices.

Oil prices are holding up.

[Ralph]

And LATOC may have crashed but that was because of matt the fluffy optimist who became a astrologer , the mass of the doomers are still as full of doom they just moved to other places to discuss woe.

Matt fled the field of battle in an entirely different way and for different reasons then how Euan is doing it. Euan is basically arguing that the serious folks and professionals knew all these things, and they were right, and TOD was wrong.

Regardless of his desire to get out in front of this particular train wreck, the way he is doing it strikes me as a bit o' sour grapes. Might serve him well personally in the long run though, he can then laugh about the bad old days and how much he learned about resource economics during the next big scare. Retain some talking head credibility perhaps, less ribbing from academic colleagues?

Certainly his thoughts on the topic will reflect better on him than the angle that Ugo Bardi has taken at resiience.org.

[Ralph]

According to the IEA, however, peak oil has now happened for OECD.

Why would anyone believe the IEA for anything?

[snow hope]

For those who believe a slow crash is coming, you really need to read the document that Jonny2mad linked to,

http://www.feasta.org/documents/risk_re ... _Point.pdf

[biffvernon]

Read it (three years ago)

Still worth reading.

[TeaEnthusiast]

Hello,

I'm new to forums and peak oil. However, I've always been concerned about the environment and what will happen in the future.
I was just wondering - besides from oil, what other alternatives will be used for energy once oil resources have been exhausted?

[emordnilap]

Welcome TE.

Hello,

I'm new to forums and peak oil. However, I've always been concerned about the environment and what will happen in the future.
I was just wondering - besides from oil, what other alternatives will be used for energy once oil resources have been exhausted?

Of course there's always human energy, though we'll still be able to grow trees for wood energy as well.

But climate collapse will decide the question for us. The human species may not be around to exploit alternatives.

[kenneal - lagger]

It depends how quickly collapse happens and the degree of that collapse. If there is significant loss of human life and deep collapse we could all make do with wood and would probably have to. If there was a minor collapse leaving some technology intact we might be able to continue mining some coal and drilling for oil in the easier places. While the technology lasted we might still be able to use renewables. How long would depend of the life of current equipment and whether or not we could still manufacture new stuff.

Who knows is basically the answer.

[Ralph]

I was just wondering - besides from oil, what other alternatives will be used for energy once oil resources have been exhausted?

Well, most people miss this one pretty easily but there is this nearby nuclear furnace...in the sky...(don't ask me how it gets missed, but it does) and it pumps out about 65 million watts per square meter on a pretty much regular basis.

Here in the States we're looking at about $0.25/watt costs wholesale for taking advantage of this horribly inefficient energy transportation system to snare some infinitesimal chunk of those watts, and then we use it for stuff.

Works pretty good to. Admittedly, sooner or later that nuclear furnace will hit peak hydrogen and then we'll REALLY be in a fix!

Sure, the IEA said we have some 6 or 7 more trillions of barrels of manufacturing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to go (IEA World Energy Outlook, 2008, p. 218, Fig. 9.10) but at the rates we can use up the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, we only have a century or two to figure out how to refuel the sun!

[adam2]

There are numerous alternatives to crude oil, but it seems most unlikely that any combination of these alternatives will be available in sufficient volumes and at low enough prices to allow BAU.

Biofuels help to a limited extent but cant be produced on a large enough scale to replace the oil used now.

Wind, solar, and hydro help are useful for electricty production but dont produce oil based fuels for transport.

Coal is cheap and relatively plentifull, but will eventualy peak, and is carbon intensive, and not ideal for transport.

Nuclear is potentily expensive, and again does not help much with transport