On Monday, the 15th of April, 2013, the approximate 1.3 million solar power systems in Germany set a new domestic/world record by reaching a peak power output of 22.68 GW at noon.
Only a few weeks ago, Siemens SI +0.11%, the industrial conglomerate based in Munich, Germany, said it was shutting down its solar power division after enduring nearly $1 billion in losses over the past two years. Similarly, Bosch also recently said it was exiting the solar energy market after suffering significant losses.
The German Energiewende or energy revolution has been based on significant government subsidies. This subsidy, which is known as the feed in tariff, guarantees the grid will purchase energy from small renewable producers at a guaranteed rate and also that these producers get to sell their energy before large energy companies burning coal, oil or gas. The result has been a solar boom. Today, roughly half of the installed solar capacity in the world is located in Germany.
But those price subsidies cost significant amounts of money. In Germany much of that money comes from average electricity consumers who have seen their bills skyrocket. Analysts predicted the cost of subsidies would be a full 50 percent of an average consumer's bill in 2013. System wide, critics estimate that Germans are paying $23 billion a year for electricity that has a market value of just under $4 billion.
The solar boom also created a number of other problems. For one, it turns out solar is not an ideal solution in the German climate. While the total potential energy that could be produced by all of these solar panels is immense, in practice they produce zero energy at night and very little during the cold months of the year. When the panels do produce maximum output, such as sunny summer days, that too becomes a problem:
I do wish the advocates of solar power would tell all of the story and not just the bits that suit.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
woodburner's sentiment is spot on - whist solar is starting to have a significant impact, it it not without some significant problems. Hopeless economics (within today's framework) and a production profile that doesn't match Northern European demand very well.
Yes, PV helps to an extent, but in most of northern Europe peak production is at times of relatively low demand.
The electricity produced by PV tends to displace natural gas, thereby leaving more gas in stock for future needs and reducing the foreign currency spent on gas imports.
In some circumstances PV might displace hydro, thereby leaving more water in the water reservoir for later use.
PV contributes nothing to meeting peak demand which occurs in darkness in most of northern europe.
In the warmer parts of the USA, PV is more worthwhile since peak production at least roughly coincides with peak demand due to the amount of airconditioning.
Many developing countries could use utility scale PV with advantage since rota power cuts are the norm. Every MW of PV is perhaps 5,000 consumers not cut off who otherwise would have been.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
This notion of PV being unable to meet peak demand is being bandied about more and more at the moment but I'm really quite comfortable with it.
PV can generate during the day in spring to autumn months, other sources can generate during the evening peak and in winter.
If we get to the stage of having so much PV (or wind or any other source) that we have excess supply then we'll also be in a position to ramp other generating capacity down, export via interconnectors or store the energy (e.g. in hot water using smart immersion heaters if battery technology remains expensive).
Pepperman wrote:If we get to the stage of having so much PV (or wind or any other source) that we have excess supply then we'll also be in a position to ramp other generating capacity down
It would be the right way to do it but it's a big if and of course not really how governments/businesses work. It's akin to building a new road and removing the same number of kilometres of an old road.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
By ramp generation down I mean have it not operating at a particular time. We'd need it there for days when PV isn't generating so I'd say it's more akin to temporarily shutting old roads which aren't being used.
Pepperman wrote:By ramp generation down I mean have it not operating at a particular time. We'd need it there for days when PV isn't generating so I'd say it's more akin to temporarily shutting old roads which aren't being used.
OK. Still can't see it myself, without something major collapsing. We can live in hope.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Operators will need to be paid to have capacity ready to be brought online.
In the US they were operating gas generators at really quite low average load factors (from memory in the 20% to 30% range) for a long time until the gas price dropped when they started extracting shale gas.
I'd also emphasise that not much in the way of additional capacity would need to be built (as is often claimed) because it will have already been built. Older plants that could be retired could be kept operational and fired up when needed, for which there'd be a cost.