An very good and intriguing post on The Oil Drum which suggests the idea a value for oil may be measured by various aspects of 'efficiency' of extraction.
In the case of oil these units of effort could be number of rigs, footage drilled or money invested.
World PPUE has dropped almost 50% since 1999 after a steady climb from 1981 up to 1999. Despite huge investment individual wells are on average producing less oil.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
The latest oil drum post, by Jean Lahérrere, is an update to his long term
oil and gas production forecasts.
At the end, he mentions the end user cost of diesel oil to a minimum wage Parisian, over the decades. It has risen from 6 minutes income in 1991 to 9 minutes now, close to the early 80s recession value of 10 minutes.
In 1965 it was 25 minutes. Times are getting harder, but these are still the good old days.
All very good points. We are ~at peak, so unsurprisingly we're having to work harder and harder. Production has never been so high and the reserve base never such low quality. The whole edifice hasn't collapsed around us, yet, we have fuel available for a few minutes work, still. But it should be clear to all the trajectory is changing before our very eyes. We're living through what is likely to be remember as one of the most significant moments in history. Hope everyone's enjoying it.
Yep, things a pretty good hereabouts. Sunny days, plenty of strawberries...
You are funny B.
Those people currently at the sharper end of that peak; you know.... the one's losing their jobs and, of those lucky enough to be holding on to theirs, doing so at the expense of more work for less pay and conditions. All in the context of rising prices of goods and services and having inexorably to pay rent/mortgage on their their urban rabbit hutch.
You may find they don't all quite share your sunny disposition B.
Why bother with PPUE when there is an excellent indicator available already. Its called EROEI, Energy Returned On Energy Invested, which has gone from well over 1:100 for fuel in the consumer's tank in the early days of oil extraction to below 1:20 for conventional oil now. Tar sands and shale oil are around 1:10 and bioethanol between 1:1.2 to 1:1.5.
Given that the energy returned must be over 1:3 to show any net gain for society after basic requirements are covered shale oil and tar sands oil and especially bioethanol are not giving the world much in the way of surplus energy to work with. The less surplus energy that we have from our fuel the less we can do over producing and transporting our food and keeping ourselves warm and lit. Social services and the arts and entertainment all require a high level of surplus energy in the system to keep them running. It's no wonder that we are finding it more difficult to carry on with what we thought basics in the past.
kenneal - lagger wrote:... The less surplus energy that we have from our fuel the less we can do over producing and transporting our food and keeping ourselves warm and lit. Social services and the arts and entertainment all require a high level of surplus energy in the system to keep them running. It's no wonder that we are finding it more difficult to carry on with what we thought basics in the past.
So you mean to say there will not be enough left over to pay footballers 90k per week... I thought a lower EROEIR was supposed to be bad news
kenneal - lagger wrote:Why bother with PPUE when there is an excellent indicator available already.
Any analysis which helps people face reality may be well worth the bother!
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
