Why Is Global Warming Stagnating?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 26 Jun 2013, 18:24

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:CO2 is one of many factors that influence climate on our planet.

And CO2 is the one that we're changing.

Post by **adam2** » 26 Jun 2013, 18:44

biffvernon wrote:
JavaScriptDonkey wrote:CO2 is one of many factors that influence climate on our planet.
And CO2 is the one that we're changing.

And methane, which we are also changing.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 26 Jun 2013, 21:05

There's another thing which might be pertinant here. If you look at the CET ("the world's longest temperature series") for the whole year, there's the winter dip and then just before the temperature "takes off" into spring there's another sharp dip. The younger(?) Dryas was a similar shape: a sharp dip just as the last Ice Age was ending. And now we have this apparent temperature "pause" (in some places). Are all three of these, I wonder, caused by ice melting, with the phase change or some other effect causing a stall in temperature rise even as overall energy in the system is increasing?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 27 Jun 2013, 10:13

RenewableCandy wrote:There's another thing which might be pertinant here. If you look at the CET ("the world's longest temperature series") for the whole year, there's the winter dip and then just before the temperature "takes off" into spring there's another sharp dip. The younger(?) Dryas was a similar shape: a sharp dip just as the last Ice Age was ending. And now we have this apparent temperature "pause" (in some places). Are all three of these, I wonder, caused by ice melting, with the phase change or some other effect causing a stall in temperature rise even as overall energy in the system is increasing?

As woodburner pointed out, a tremendous amount of energy is going into melting the poles and Greenland (along with ice and snow in other parts of the world). Once they're gone, where is this energy to go?

Pepperman · Post by **Pepperman** » 01 Jul 2013, 14:34

RenewableCandy wrote:Lots of CC deniers have cited the measured global temperature "stagnation" since 1998. There is a well-known explanation for it which, iirc, involves the sun in a cyclical cooling. When that solar cycle turns, we're going to fry.

Isn't it more to do with ENSO? 1998 was a very strong El Nino year and since then we've mostly seen neutral or La Nina conditions.

It's worth repeating this graphic which demonstrates how warming has 'stopped' quite a few times already:

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 01 Jul 2013, 15:11

I think the only thing we can say with some degree of confidence s that we are pushing the climate off its recent relatively stable equilibrium by trapping more of the sun's energy in the atmosphere. Which direction the climate will head in is up for grabs because of a lack of comprehensive knowledge about all of the feedback mechanisms in both the non-organic and, in particular, the organic environment. But, its a reasonable guess to make that a major step change in one direction or the other to a new equilibrium is coming soon.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 01 Jul 2013, 15:31

Pepperman wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:Lots of CC deniers have cited the measured global temperature "stagnation" since 1998. There is a well-known explanation for it which, iirc, involves the sun in a cyclical cooling. When that solar cycle turns, we're going to fry.
Isn't it more to do with ENSO? 1998 was a very strong El Nino year

So it was. Idrc (I didn't remember correctly

)

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 01 Jul 2013, 16:52

Not enough people repeat often enough that almost all the excess heat trapped by the CO2 we've added to the air goes to warming the oceans, mostly at depths where we never measure it.

Global surface warming is a poor proxy for the total global warming.

A bit like measuring your body temperature by holding the thermometer between your toes.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 03 Jul 2013, 22:34

emordnilap wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:There's another thing which might be pertinant here. If you look at the CET ("the world's longest temperature series") for the whole year, there's the winter dip and then just before the temperature "takes off" into spring there's another sharp dip. The younger(?) Dryas was a similar shape: a sharp dip just as the last Ice Age was ending. And now we have this apparent temperature "pause" (in some places). Are all three of these, I wonder, caused by ice melting, with the phase change or some other effect causing a stall in temperature rise even as overall energy in the system is increasing?
As woodburner pointed out, a tremendous amount of energy is going into melting the poles and Greenland (along with ice and snow in other parts of the world). Once they're gone, where is this energy to go?

Good question. The latent heat of fusion of water is 333 kJ per kg, whereas the specific heat capacity of water is 4.18 kJ per kg. so, 333 kJ of energy can melt a kg of ice, or it can raise a kg of water by 80 deg. C. I think I've got that right?

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 03 Jul 2013, 22:51

That looks right...I didn't believe the 333 at first and have actually had to look it up.

I thought you'd accidentally found the latent heat of vapourisation, but that is HUGE...2257 kJ/kg according to the same source. Feck!

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 03 Jul 2013, 23:10

RenewableCandy wrote:That looks right...I didn't believe the 333 at first and have actually had to look it up.

I thought you'd accidentally found the latent heat of vapourisation, but that is HUGE...2257 kJ/kg according to the same source. Feck!

Yes, that's why it's important to season your firewood!

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 04 Jul 2013, 00:20

And not to walk around in clothes that have got wet

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 04 Jul 2013, 07:42

RenewableCandy wrote:
I thought you'd accidentally found the latent heat of vapourisation, but that is HUGE...2257 kJ/kg according to the same source. Feck!

It'll be a while before the Greenland Ice Sheet boils then.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 04 Jul 2013, 09:52

biffvernon wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:
I thought you'd accidentally found the latent heat of vapourisation, but that is HUGE...2257 kJ/kg according to the same source. Feck!
It'll be a while before the Greenland Ice Sheet boils then.

Well, bear in mind that, once the ice has gone, the albedo of the arctic region will change. More energy will be absorbed by the surface. The Greenland ice sheet wouldn't boil of course. The water would run off into the sea once the ice had melted. If you want to know how much more energy a dark body can absorb compared to a light one, just ask anyone with solar water heating. It works, even on a cloudy day.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Jul 2013, 10:47

Tarrel wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:There's another thing which might be pertinant here. If you look at the CET ("the world's longest temperature series") for the whole year, there's the winter dip and then just before the temperature "takes off" into spring there's another sharp dip. The younger(?) Dryas was a similar shape: a sharp dip just as the last Ice Age was ending. And now we have this apparent temperature "pause" (in some places). Are all three of these, I wonder, caused by ice melting, with the phase change or some other effect causing a stall in temperature rise even as overall energy in the system is increasing?
As woodburner pointed out, a tremendous amount of energy is going into melting the poles and Greenland (along with ice and snow in other parts of the world). Once they're gone, where is this energy to go?
Good question. The latent heat of fusion of water is 333 kJ per kg, whereas the specific heat capacity of water is 4.18 kJ per kg. so, 333 kJ of energy can melt a kg of ice, or it can raise a kg of water by 80 deg. C. I think I've got that right?

So...is that scary? Or is it simply scary?